Because of the slow and disjointed release of vaccines, the Covid-19 pandemic could last another seven years if distribution continues at its current pace.
A bleak calculation by Bloomberg shows that it may take more than a decade using two-dose vaccines for collective immunity to be achieved. Earlier calculations by the White House chief medical consultant, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said that 70-85% of the population will need the vaccine to obtain collective immunity.
The United States is currently on track to reach that milestone by 2022, but serious complications of distribution and lack of vaccines in other countries are far from that number.
Bloomberg says that Western and wealthier countries are achieving 75% coverage, but others are far behind. Israel will reach 75% coverage in the spring. But Portugal can take four years to reach this mark, China seven years and Canada almost ten years at the current pace of distribution.
The media admits that their calculations are based on current conditions and may adjust as distribution lines improve. Canada, for example, has faced shipping delays, but has huge pending orders for supplies that could speed up its schedule.
Bloomberg also noted that production is just starting at manufacturing centers, and only a third of countries have vaccine campaigns.
The calculations are based on two doses for complete vaccination. Johnson & Johnson is launching a single dose vaccine, which can reduce time.