The coronavirus pandemic will shorten life expectancy at birth for Americans by about a year due to more than 336,000 deaths from the disease in the U.S. in 2020, according to new research.
Researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton project that life expectancy will be reduced by 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study, which was published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
This is the lowest estimated life expectancy since 2003 – and marks the biggest single-year decline in at least 40 years, according to Science Daily.
The decline in longevity is probably even more pronounced among minority populations, the study concluded.
For blacks, researchers project that life expectancy would decrease by 2.10 years to 72.78 years, and for Latinos, by 3.05 years to 78.77 years, according to the research.
Among whites, the projected decline is 0.68 years for a life expectancy of 77.84 years – while overall, the difference in life expectancy between blacks and whites is expected to increase by 40 percent, from 3.6 to more than five years.
“Our study looks at the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on life expectancy across the nation, as well as the consequences for marginalized groups,” said study author Theresa Andrasfay, postdoctoral fellow at the Leonard Davis School of Gerontology at USC .
“The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of blacks and Latin Americans probably has to do with its increased exposure through their workplaces or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving poor health care, leading to more infections and worse results, ”she added.
The coronavirus has apparently eliminated many of the gains made in reducing the difference in life expectancy between blacks and whites since 2006, Science Daily reported.
Latinos, who experienced lower mortality than whites, would see their survival advantage of more than three years over whites reduced to less than a year.
“The huge decline in life expectancy for Latinos is especially shocking, given that Latinos have lower rates than whites and blacks for most chronic conditions that are risk factors for COVID-19,” said the co-author of the I study Noreen Goldman, professor of demography and public relations at Princeton.
“The general good health of Latinos before the pandemic, which was supposed to protect them from COVID-19, revealed the risks associated with social and economic disadvantage,” she said.
The study estimated life expectancy at birth and at age 65 in 2020 for the total US population and by race and ethnicity.
The researchers used four death scenarios – one in which the pandemic had not occurred and three others that include COVID-19 mortality projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent center for global health research at the University of Washington.
“The biggest reductions in life expectancy for black and Latino populations result in part from a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” said Goldman.
“These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not be perceived to be at high risk,” she added.
The projected drop in life expectancy related to the pandemic is about 10 times greater than the declines seen in recent years.
During the 1918 influenza pandemic, life expectancy was reduced by an extraordinary seven to 12 years.