The number of new COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations is plummeting in Los Angeles County, good news after a catastrophic winter wave that hit the region.
However, officials emphasize that the county is far from dangerous. While those numbers have dropped in recent weeks, they remain well above levels before the surge – and are still too high for the county to unlock additional sectors of its shaky economy or to provide the long-term relief that hospitals desperately need.
And the final and most devastating consequence of the pandemic – the number of people who lose the battle against the disease – remains high.
About 201 angelenos, on average, died of COVID-19 every day for the past week.
The number of coronavirus-related deaths in LA is now over 17,300. Across the state, more than 42,000 Californians died of the disease during the pandemic.
Dr. Christina Ghaly, the county’s director of health services, said on Wednesday that it appears that the daily deaths of COVID-19 have finally peaked.
The highest rate was recorded for the seven-day period that ended on January 14, when the county averaged 241 daily deaths.
“Although it is still uncomfortably high, we expect average daily mortality to continue to fall in the coming weeks,” said Ghaly during a briefing.
Although the number is trending in a promising direction, she said the high number of ongoing deaths “is heartbreaking – for families across the county who have lost someone they love, for children who have lost their parents, for parents who have lost children, to people who have lost friends, coworkers, loved ones – this grief is incredibly intense. And that loss is still happening daily. ”
Deaths are the final delay indicator of COVID-19’s reach, taking longer to rise when a new wave hits and decreasing more slowly, even when the infection rate increases.
The pattern of the pandemic runs out because it can take weeks from the time of infection for people to get sick enough to require professional hospital treatment, and more weeks for their condition to deteriorate to the point where they need intensive care or die from the disease.
Officials and experts regularly emphasize that the only way to avoid this devastating domino effect is to restrict the transmission of the coronavirus.
LA County has seen tremendous, though qualified, improvement in this regard. The county now averages about 5,600 new cases of coronavirus per day – significantly below the nearly 15,100 seen in the seven-day period ending January 13, but still much higher than in early October, when the county reported less than 1,000 cases per day.
This sharp drop in infections is beginning to be reflected in hospitals in the region, which have long been inundated with patients with COVID-19.
As of Tuesday, there were less than 5,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in LA County – the lowest number since mid-December, and below the peak of 8,098 on January 5. But the number is still much higher than it was in early October, when there were fewer than 700 patients with COVID-19 in the entire county.
“Although the numbers are low – and we are very happy that the numbers are low – many hospitals still face personnel challenges,” said Ghaly. “Many hospitals still have a COVID ICU census of 100% or more of their normal ICU staff capacity. And that continues to put a lot of pressure on the general hospital and the healthcare system. “
The severity of the disease in hospitalized patients also remains high, with a disproportionate demand for clinically intensive services, such as ICU care, and the need to be connected to a mechanical ventilator or high-flow oxygen.
“Although new hospitalizations are declining, many of the individuals who were admitted weeks ago experienced the progression of their disease and are now at this point – needing ICU care and mechanical ventilation, even if they did not do so in the early stages of the disease,” Ghaly said.
Although the county’s progress has been steady in recent times, officials warn that this could easily be reversed if many people abandon public health protocols implemented to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
Of particular concern is the next Super Bowl. Millions of Californians often gather to watch the big game – spending hours indoors with people they don’t live with to cheer for triumph or howl for defeat.
All of this, officials say, is a recipe for disaster and could turn out to be a turning point if many people misinterpret recent progress as a sign that the danger of the pandemic has passed.
“Super Bowl parties have the power to make our recovery unviable,” said LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.
The county still has a number of coronavirus-related restrictions in place – among them, that private meetings are limited to 15 people, with a maximum of three families, and must be held outside, with participants wearing tags and keeping their distance. physics.
“So unless your TV is outside, if you plan on watching the game, you should plan on spending this Sunday with only your family members,” said Ferrer.
Some companies are already failing to comply with public health orders that were issued when restaurants were allowed to reopen their outdoor dining areas last week.
In a statement on Tuesday, the LA County Department of Public Health said that many of these areas were not following orders for employees interacting with the public to use facial coverage, nor were they in compliance with rules that limit how external structures can be assembled.
Just as Angelenos’ collective work played a key role in changing the tide, officials warn that the widespread failure to follow public health guidelines represents the most significant potential obstacle in the county’s path to a wider recovery and reopening.
This is especially the case, given the documented presence of new coronavirus mutations – including the third most contagious confirmed case in LA County of the B.1.1.7 strain that was first identified in Britain.
“We all have to be cautious and very careful in our actions to avoid another wave, another storm that comes upon us,” said Ghaly. “An increase in behaviors that lead to more transmission of this virus in our community can very easily result in the outbreak returning to our hospitals, and an increase in the number of patients requiring hospitalization in just two or three weeks. “
Even without the easiest to spread strains, Ferrer said the Angelenos are already intimately aware of how quickly COVID-19 can get out of hand – and how seemingly benign activities can add fuel to the viral fire.
“We are not taking any chances,” she said. “There are countless stories … where a group of friends or several families got together and, within a few weeks, many people were infected, some were hospitalized and someone died.”
Improving conditions in LA County reflect a more upbeat trend across the state, as California continues to emerge from the darkest days of the pandemic.
New numbers of daily cases are falling rapidly across the state. State officials announced on Tuesday that 18 counties – including San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin and Yolo – were seeing rates below 25 new daily cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents, which would allow additional K-6 schools to begin to reopen on instruction of the person.
Hospitalizations also increased, from a peak of almost 22,000 in early January to 13,766 on Tuesday.
“Everything that should be related to this virus is high,” said Governor Gavin Newsom on Wednesday. “Everything that should be inactive is inactive.”