The pace of COVID-19 deaths will drop dramatically over the next four weeks, according to a new forecast that shows a brutal wave of cases slowing and the United States advancing with difficulty in delivering the vaccine.
The nation is expected to have about 12,666 deaths in the week ending March 13, according to the University of Massachusetts Reich Lab’s COVID-19 Forecasting Center, which released a four-week forecast on Tuesday. The forecast is based on independent models collected in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The number would be a 43% drop from the 22,062 deaths recorded last week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Although cases have been declining for a month, deaths – a slow indicator – have not dropped much from record levels, Johns Hopkins data show. That is expected to start changing this week, and the numbers are expected to gradually improve over the four-week period. The pace would be the slowest since the period ended November 28.
(Tabulation methods vary, and the widely used COVID Tracking Project count shows deaths already falling to a more significant degree.)
The vaccine’s launch is still in its early stages, with only 4.5% of Americans having received the two required doses, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. But Americans are also wearing masks at almost record levels and moving less, according to research and mobility data compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
In addition, the CDC estimates that about 83.1 million Americans may have already been infected, with many acquiring a measure of natural immunity that has lasted at least five months.
Even so, there are many reasons to remain vigilant. The United States is beginning to see new variants of the virus that spread more easily, and many residents have been forced to huddle in homes and shelters to wait for a winter storm. Furthermore, Americans tend to relax mitigation measures as soon as cases start to decline in their communities.
The United States registered 53,410 new cases on Monday, bringing the seven-day average to 86,002, the lowest since November 3, according to Johns Hopkins. There were almost 487,000 deaths in total, the data show.
According to the data of the Tracking Project:
- The number of people currently hospitalized with the virus has declined from the previous week, except in North Dakota and Wyoming.
- South Carolina had the highest number of cases per capita last week.
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