Public health experts have pointed out several factors that may be causing infections: increased circulation of a more contagious variant of the coronavirus; the fatigue of the pandemic and the optimism of spring that led the public to be less vigilant; and the continued loosening of Governor Charlie Baker ‘s public health guidelines.
Many epidemiologists have warned for weeks that these factors could combine to produce an increase in cases. Now, with the increase in cases, they said it is clearer than ever that, to avoid a sudden increase, the state must exercise caution and resist the urge to lower collective guard.
“This was predicted. … And in my opinion, all of this is so unnecessary, ”said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health. “It seems that the governor has just stopped listening to public health experts. And I appreciate that he has to look at a wide range of issues, but it still remains a public health problem. “
“It is really a risky situation at the moment with these variants … and I wish this was not the time when the governor had decided to relax the restrictions,” said Jha.
The governor’s office has repeatedly emphasized the state’s victories in combating the pandemic. COVID-19 hospitalizations have dropped 19 percent since March 1, and 80 percent of people over 75 have received at least one dose of the vaccine, said Sarah Finlaw, Governor Baker’s press secretary, in a statement released to the press. Globe on Friday. The state’s overall vaccination rate is among the highest in the country.
“This progress has enabled Massachusetts to take additional steps to reopen our economy safely and the government will continue to carefully monitor all public health data while the Community continues to move forward in the phased reopening process,” said Finlaw.
On Friday, the number of people fully vaccinated – with two doses of Moderna or Pfizer vaccines or one dose from Johnson & Johnson – increased to 1,194,905. Baker officials said they plan to vaccinate 4.1 million adults.
Governor Baker also noted at a news conference this week that many new cases are in young adults, who are less likely to be hospitalized or become seriously ill.
Children and adolescents, about 22% of the state’s population, were responsible for a quarter of new cases in the two weeks preceding March 20, shows the most recent report by the Department of Public Health. People in their 20s, about 14% of the population, are responsible for 20% of new infections.
In the same period, cases among the older groups, people in their 70s and those aged 80 and over, declined.
Experts agree that high vaccination rates among the state’s most vulnerable populations will go a long way towards preventing a dramatic increase in hospitalizations and deaths in the event of another outbreak.
“The standards we were familiar with before will be different now that vaccinations have started to come out,” said Helen Jenkins, an epidemiologist at BU. “What we hope to see is that the shape of the epidemic curve for cases begins to detach from the patterns we see in hospitalizations and deaths,” as high-risk groups are protected, she said.
But experts say infection prevention in all age groups remains worthwhile, and even an urgent goal.
“If we have another outbreak, which we may be entering now, we will still have many hospitalizations, we will still have many deaths,” said Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist at Northeastern University.
People of all ages can experience long-term health complications after a COVID-19 infection, Scarpino said, and even young people can die from the disease.
The rise in infections among children and adolescents is of particular concern, said Scarpino, as plans to vaccinate them remain uncertain. Throughout the pandemic, children played a limited role in transmission, as they are less likely to be infected than adults. But that could change, said Scarpino, due to more contagious variants, such as variant B.1.1.7 first identified in the UK.
“If we see children and adolescents actually making up their proportion of cases when they weren’t before, it means that they are now playing a bigger role in the epidemiology of COVID,” he said. “It will make it more difficult for us to reach the limit of collective immunity in general because we will have to vaccinate more people.”
The number of communities considered to be at high risk for COVID-19 has increased for two consecutive weeks. Among those who currently experience high levels of community risk, some, including Lynn and Lawrence, spent much of last year battling some of the state’s highest transmission rates. Several communities on Cape Cod are also at high risk.
Several experts have expressed frustration with the recent rise in infections – and the state’s continued relaxation of pandemic rules. Although the distribution of the vaccine in the state was encouraging and a new normal is within reach, they said, progress is a reason to practice caution for just a few more weeks, rather than speeding up.
“What we need to focus on is getting out of it, getting to the new normal. And you know, we’re not there yet, ”said Scarpino. “But we could get there faster, with far fewer deaths and far fewer hospitalizations, if we postpone this widespread reopening.”
Dasia Moore can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow her on twitter @daijmoore.