The possibility of removing California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, from office may have seemed like a chimera in a state where the number of Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one. But a recall campaign against the Democratic governor is approaching the required threshold as discontent with Newsom’s treatment of the coronavirus grows.
Fox News recently spoke to recall expert Joshua Spivak, a senior research fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform, who has written extensively on the subject, to ask what it really would take for a recall campaign to succeed.
Spivak said the recall against Newsom has a good chance of getting to the vote, but it will be a more difficult path to his removal from office.
“The big problem for Republicans is that, unlike 2003, California has become a much more democratic state,” said Spivak, referring to the successful 2003 repeal campaign to oust Democratic Governor Gray Davis. “Gavin Newsom got 62% of the vote. You need a 12% drop to take Gavin Newsom … Things like that have been done, but it’s a big hurdle to overcome.”
ARCHIVE: Protesters shout slogans while carrying a sign calling for Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall during a protest against the order to stay home in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in Huntington Beach, California.
(AP)
Under California law, the number of signatures that a recall needs to collect to qualify for a vote is equal to 12% of the number of voters in the last election for that office – in this case, just 1.5 million. Signatures must also come from at least five municipalities.
On Wednesday, the recall organizers said they had collected more than 1.3 million signatures. They have until March 17 to collect signatures, but they will necessarily need a margin of 10 to 15% above the limit required to compensate for invalidated signatures, Spivak said.
Spivak said California has one of the country’s best signature collection industries, pointing to the successful recall campaign against Davis in 2003.
“It is something in California, especially because of all the initiatives, it is well established. You put enough money, you are putting an initiative in the vote. So why would that be any different?” he said.
EX-SAN DIEGO MAYOR KEVIN FAULCONER ANNOUNCES BID FOR CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR’S NEWS
Once all signatures have been collected and validated, California will hold a special election not earlier than 88 days and not later than 125 days. But if it were close enough to a regularly scheduled election, it would probably take place on the same date.
A revocation election would simply ask voters whether Newsom should be removed: Yes or No? If he is removed, Californians will vote for his replacement.
“He is not allowed to be one of the replacement candidates – which may seem obvious, but in other (states) people missed the recall … and won a replacement race,” said Spivak.
If the recall fails, Newsom will simply continue his term until the election for governor in November 2022. Under California law, recalls are allowed only once per term.
ARCHIVE: California Governor Gavin Newsom describes his 2021-2022 state budget proposal during a news conference in Sacramento, California.
The recall campaigns also do not set limits on the number of people who can participate. In 2003, for example, there were 135 candidates running to replace Davis.
As the state approached a revocation vote, Newsom would have no limits on the amount of funds it could receive to keep its rivals at bay.
“He could very well raise unlimited funds,” said Spivak. “Campaign finance rules are often very different for a recall than for a general election.”
REPUBLICAN OF CALIFORNIA RECEIVES NEWSOM: PEOPLE ‘UNITED BY FRUSTRATION’ WITH PANDEMIC BLOCKING
This is now the sixth recall attempt against Newsom since he took office. He gained momentum after the governor – who told Californians to stay home and reject social gatherings during the coronavirus pandemic – was photographed at the sophisticated French Laundry restaurant in northern California, seeming to ignore his own advice.
Asked why he believes this recall campaign went so far, Spivak said it was all about money.
“The pandemic helps the situation, but this is the sixth attempt against Newsom,” said Spivak, pointing to similar efforts against Democratic governors in other states after the 2018 election. “So the fact that they are trying to call him back (the pandemic) is a problem, but it’s not exactly the first time we’ve put that into play. ”
Still, Spivak downplayed the notion that Republicans have no influence in California. He pointed out that in the 2020 election, President Donald Trump received six million votes from California alone – more than any other state.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPLICATION
“So six million people voted for Donald Trump. How many of them do you need to get a recall on the vote? Well, you need less than a third of them, right?”