Containing the new variant
Experts are concerned that over the next few weeks the new and more contagious variant of the coronavirus known as B.1.1.7 could explode in the United States, becoming the dominant variant and quickly overwhelming hospitals – as it did in Britain.
The new variant has been more resistant to blocking measures in Britain, according to new research. Dozens of cases of the new variant have already been discovered in at least five U.S. states: California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia and New York. But public health experts say there is still time to contain it – if only they could see it.
Unfortunately, reports my colleague Carl Zimmer, the United States does not have a large-scale national system for checking for new mutations in the coronavirus genomes. This program can help to deepen our understanding of the new variant, along with other possibly more dangerous variants that may be on the horizon.
It is even more important in the United States, Carl told me, because the virus is so out of control. “The more mutation you have, the more likely you are to turn it into something dangerous,” he said.
Currently, coronavirus genetic sequencing is done by a patchwork of academic, state and commercial laboratories, and at an abysmally low rate. Of the approximately 1.4 million people who test positive each week, less than 3,000 samples are sequenced. Experts say the US should sequence at least five times as many samples if the country wants to better understand the variant and detect new mutations.
If a national surveillance program were implemented, as in Great Britain, scientists could determine how widespread the variant is, as well as locate emerging points. Public health officials could then alert the public and institute better ways to contain it, such as wearing better masks, closing schools or instituting temporary blockades. (A spokesman for the new Biden government told Carl that he may be open to the idea of a national program.)
But, as we learned throughout the pandemic, acting quickly is critical.
“We already had this mutant that took us by surprise,” said Carl. “He’s been in this country for weeks and that’s why he’s been everywhere now, and we didn’t know that. If there is another dangerous variant, we need to know when it appears. Otherwise, it’s like waiting half of your house on fire before calling the fire department. “
Arizona second wave
For the second time this year, Arizona is the state with the highest rate of new virus cases in the United States. Last week, the state averaged more than 8,000 cases a day, more than double the rate during the summer peak.
The hospital system is alarmingly limited, and hundreds of health workers are coming from other states. Medical experts say that drastic measures – such as rationing care – may have to be considered soon. At the same time, Arizona is administering vaccines at one of the country’s slowest rates.
Public health experts in the state say the virus has returned in full force due to the lack of enforcement of some anti-virus measures and the lack of public surveillance that could help contain the outbreak. Governor Doug Ducey, a Republican, has consistently rejected calls for tougher restrictions, such as a statewide masking mandate, the cancellation of major sporting events or the closure of on-site education. He drew criticism this week after videos surfaced on his son’s social media having dinner and partying in crowded spaces without a mask.
Some Arizonans do not believe that virus restrictions are the solution and also doubt that the recent increase is anything to worry about. Francisco Sirvent, a lawyer who lives in Chandler, founded a Facebook group in April called “Reopen Arizona”, which now has almost 500 members.
“I think people are taking care of their lives a little more, and that’s probably why the peak happened,” he said, adding, “I totally believe that we need to develop collective immunity.”
Resurgences
Here is a summary of restrictions in all 50 states.
What else are we following
What are you doing
I started playing Dungeons and Dragons in May with my former college roommate. It’s been a great way to keep in touch, meet new people and socialize, virtually. It has also been a great creative outlet. My characters can live all my social life dreams in the game. Our fantasy world has its fair share of terrifying problems, but what do I not have to fight and fear for a few hours a week? Covid-19
– Aaron Aboaf, Logan, Utah
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