Infectious disease specialists are seeing a plateau in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in the United States – although it is too early to link positive news to ongoing vaccinations.
Instead, experts attribute the decline to the post-holiday season, as fewer people travel and gather indoors.
“After a long winter wave, the country is beginning to experience a decreasing number of new COVID-19 infections,” wrote Dr. Steven Gordon, head of infectious diseases at the Cleveland Clinic, in an email. “Although vaccination plays an important role in controlling the pandemic, this slowdown in cases is probably not yet the result of vaccination. More likely, the plateau is occurring as fewer people are traveling and meeting as we move through the season. vacation.”
Data from Johns Hopkins University report a steady drop in daily cases since the beginning of January, dropping from almost 250,000 new infections to around 170,000 in the past few days, on an average of 7 days. The national positivity rate, or percentage of positive tests, fell from more than 13% to 9.4% in January. Hospitalizations are also falling; from around 130,000 in hospital care around 10 January to 118,000 more recently, averaging 7 days from The COVID Tracking Project.
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Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to President Biden at COVID-19, told NBC News on Monday that the figures represent a natural peak and plateau.
“The number of vaccines that we put in people’s arms, good start, we want to continue, vaccinate many people, but I don’t think that the dynamics of what we are seeing now with the plateau is still significantly influenced, it will be soon, but still by the vaccine” , he said. “I just think it’s the plateau’s natural course.”
As vaccinations reach more of the population, experts expect a significant drop in hospitalizations, especially among the elderly and those with underlying diseases at increased risk for severe COVID-19, says Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, professor at UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.
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So far, there have been at least 21.8 million COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States, or less than 5% of the country’s population, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“We are nowhere near the approximately 75% of the population that needs to be immune before the outbreak dies from” herd immunity, “wrote Dr. Dean Winslow, an infectious physician at Stanford Health Care.” It is true. important for Americans to continue to follow these physical preventive measures until we reach that 75% point. “
Dr. Gordon of the Cleveland Clinic noted that the current rate of vaccinations and the level of spread of the virus are likely to require mitigation measures, such as wearing a mask and social distance during the summer, to prevent the virus from spreading as the country moves. moves to collective immunity.