BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) – Coronavirus cases have declined in nursing homes and other US long-term care institutions in recent weeks, offering a glimpse of hope that health officials attribute to the start of vaccinations, a relief from the peak vacation period and better prevention, among other reasons.
More than 153,000 residents of nursing homes and assisted living centers across the country died of COVID-19, accounting for 36% of the number of deaths from a pandemic in the United States, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Many of the approximately 2 million people who live in these facilities remain isolated from their loved ones due to the risk of infection. The virus still kills thousands of them weekly.
The general trend for long-term care residents is improving, however, with fewer new cases registered and fewer facilities reporting outbreaks. Together with better numbers for the country in general, it is reason for optimism, even if it is too early to declare victory.
“We definitely think there is hope and light at the end of the tunnel,” said Marty Wright, who runs a nursing home trade group in West Virginia.
Nursing homes have been a priority since vaccinations began in mid-December, and the federal government says 1.5 million long-term care residents have already received at least one starting dose.
Researchers and industry leaders say they are seeing marked improvements after months in which some nursing homes lost dozens of residents due to the disease and had to keep others in semi-isolation for protection. About 2,000 nursing homes are now virus-free, or about 13% nationwide, according to an industry group, and many are dealing with far fewer cases than before.
In West Virginia, where about 30% of the approximately 2,080 deaths from COVID-19 occurred in long-term care centers, fewer outbreaks are happening and fewer residents need hospitalization, said Wright, chief executive of the West Virginia Health Care Association. Pennsylvania-based Genesis HealthCare, which operates more than 325 nursing homes, assisted living facilities or retirement communities in 24 states, has seen similar improvements, said spokeswoman Lori Mayer.
The American Health Care Association and the National Center for Assisted Living, a commercial organization in the industry, said on Thursday that data from about 800 nursing homes where initial doses of the vaccine were administered in late December offered promising results. Cases among residents fell 48% in the homes where immunizations occurred, compared with a 21% decline in nearby unvaccinated facilities. Meanwhile, cases among employees decreased by 33% in vaccinated homes, compared to 18% in unvaccinated facilities.
After reaching a high of almost 73,600 new weekly cases in long-term care facilities across the country in mid-December, the number dropped 31% in late January, to about 50,000 new cases per week, an Associated Press analysis found . Still, the most recent weekly count is 18% higher than the seven-day period that ended on Thanksgiving Day, when the numbers started to rise.
The weekly count of new deaths remains stubbornly high, with a record 7,042 recorded during the seven-day break that ended on January 14 and only a slight decline since then. In comparison, in the seven days that ended on Thanksgiving Day, 3,181 deaths were recorded. Most encouragingly, the COVID Tracking Project found that only 251 installations reported new outbreaks recently, compared with 1,410 in early January.
Dr. David Gifford, medical director of the national association, said the figures show signs of hope, as they indicate that vaccines may slow the spread of COVID-19, a finding not demonstrated in the trials.
“If verified with additional data, this could speed up the reopening of long-term care facilities for visitors, which is vital to the health and well-being of residents,” he said in a statement.
The prospect of visiting left Mark Badger and his father Billy, 91, who is in a nursing home in Anchorage, Alaska, in tears. It was the first face-to-face visit in a year. Mark Badger’s mother had died at home a year ago.
“This is a period when he really needs us,” said Mark Badger. “He’s been alone.”
Experts warn that only some of the improvements may be related to vaccines.
Israeli studies show that it takes a patient about 12 days for the first of two doses of the Pfizer or Modern vaccines to provide significant protection, said Roni Rosenfeld, a computer epidemiologist who heads the Machine Learning Department at Carnegie Mellon University. Despite all residents and workers of long-term care institutions who received at least one dose of the vaccine, these doses did not have enough time to work for most people, he said this week.
“The vaccine probably contributed, but very, very little,” said Rosenfeld.
Health officials say other factors are likely to play a bigger role, including a decrease in the post-holiday increase, an increasing number of people who are immune because they have had the disease, changes in behavior and more abundant protective equipment. And they warn that there are still threats lurking, including more contagious strains of the virus and the reluctance of many asylum workers to get vaccinated.
At the Arbor Springs Health and Rehabilitation Center in Opelika, Alabama, where 19 patients died of COVID-19 early in the pandemic, none of the 115 or so patients are now infected, said Mark Traylor, who runs the facility’s parent company, Traylor- Porter Healthcare.
“We take care of each other here. We take care of each other, ”said resident Susan McEachern on Wednesday, while she and a friend – both wearing masks – were sitting in a common room that was recently reopened because many residents were vaccinated.
Traylor said that a better understanding of how to prevent the virus from spreading and how to treat COVID-19 was the difference between “looking into an abyss” during the first weeks of the crisis and visitors now being allowed to return on a limited basis.
“We will be in great shape as soon as we vaccinate everyone,” said Traylor.
PruittHealth, which operates about 100 nursing homes in Carolinas, Georgia and Florida, has 29 COVID-19-free locations and fewer positive test patients in recent weeks, said CEO Neil Pruitt.
While more than 70% of eligible residents of PruittHealth’s nursing home have been immunized, only 27% of its employees have agreed to be vaccinated, said Pruitt. Without a major improvement in the figure of the employee, he fears that the cases may increase again when people start traveling on spring break.
“At the moment, I’m not confident,” he said.
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Associated Press medical writer Carla K. Johnson of Washington State; Adrain Sainz in Memphis, Tennessee; Mark Thiessen in Anchorage, Alaska; data journalist Nicky Forster; and Opelika photographer Julie Bennett contributed to this report.