But despite severe restrictions, the number of cases is not falling as fast as experts expected. Deaths continue to rise and public health experts and the government are beginning to warn people that the country will be in this battle for a long time.
The new variant, known as B.1.1.7, wreaked havoc in the UK, increasing the number of cases in late 2020, despite a national blockade being in place. Data showing an increase in cases in younger people suggests that this was mainly because schools remained open, allowing the variant to spread quickly.
According to Public Health England, the new strain first appeared in September. In late November, scientists began to worry about the increasing number of infections in Kent, in the southeast. The region was an anomaly, because although cases were generally decreasing across the country due to national restrictions, they were not decreasing in Kent.
This forced the country into a much tougher blockade from January 5, in which people were told to stay at home, families were forbidden to mix – inside and outside the home – and everything except essential stores was closed, including most schools.
For many experts, the decision came too late. “It’s amazing that we seem to be making the same mistakes over and over – with increasing loss of life,” Dr. Julian Tang, clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, noted in comments to the UK’s Science Media Center.
But is the tougher strategy working? The evidence is mixed.
Deadliest period
England reported almost 70,000 new infections on January 4, the day before the new blockade was announced. In terms of new reported cases, the worst 10 days of the entire pandemic in the country took place between December 29 and January 11, with an average of more than 55,000 new cases per day.
The deaths soon followed: of the 11 deadliest days of the pandemic, 10 occurred between 9 and 18 January. The country recorded more than 1,000 deaths a day, something that has only happened once before.
A few days after the new restrictions came into force, the number of new cases began to decline gradually – and has continued since then.
The seven-day continuous average of new daily cases, a measure that smoothes out anomalies, such as lower tests on weekends, has dropped from more than 60,000 on January 1 to around 40,000 in the past few days. However, it will probably take some time for the impact to be felt in hospitals.
“We know that there is a gap between reporting new cases and any subsequent deaths,” Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton, told CNN via email. “For example, a few percent of those newly diagnosed today can end up in the hospital in about 7 to 14 days from now, and then approximately 1% of today’s cases will die in about 21 to 28 days,” he added.
The number of people hospitalized remains at a record high, with 38,000 people in hospitals.
But while the latest figures may offer a glimpse of hope, other studies, including one by researchers at Imperial College London, present a contrasting picture.
Unlike official case numbers, which are based on the number of people taking the test and therefore may not include those who are asymptomatic or have not yet developed symptoms, the REACT-1 study tracks current coronavirus infections in the community and time, it tested more than 140,000 randomly selected people.
Steven Riley, the study’s author and professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College, told CNN in an email that the numbers do not show the kind of substantial decline that would be expected if the blockade were strong enough to reduce the number. of reproductions – the value indicates how much the virus is spreading: a reproduction rate above 1 means that the epidemic is growing. On Friday, the government said the number was between 0.8 and 1, although it warned that it varies across the country.
The study tested samples collected between 6 and 15 January and compared them with mobility data based on the GPS locations of individuals using the Facebook mobile phone application. The data show a decrease in mobility in late December, followed by an increase in early January, when people returned to work, which, according to the authors, may explain the greater number of people infected in early January.
Riley said that while the study did not show a huge drop in infections, it would not be fair to say that the block is failing entirely. “Our main point is that we haven’t detected a sharp drop, which is what we really need to see.”
The authors further noted in the article that, “Until the prevalence in the community is reduced substantially, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.”
Reacting to the numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the figures show that the most contagious strain is spreading “really really fast”.
“I think it is too early to say when we will be able to lift some of the restrictions,” said Johnson.
Vallance said the first data suggests that while about 10 in every 1,000 men infected in their 60s die with the old variant, that could increase to about 13 or 14 with the new strain.
The government also found itself under pressure to compensate people who need to isolate themselves. A government-backed study published in September found that only 18% of people adhered to the rules of self-isolation and suggested that financial compensation could increase that number.
The full impact will take a while
As the numbers are debated and changed, health experts and politicians are asking the public for patience.
The full impact of the blockade will not be felt for a while, as it will take a long time – and a lot more to stay home – to get the latest outbreak fully under control, they believe.
According to Head’s team estimates, the number of people who succumb to the disease is likely to remain high and will only begin to fall next month. And although hospital admissions are decreasing, the number of hospitalized patients remains at record levels. Until the number of people released is greater than those hospitalized, hospitals will remain at risk of running out of beds.
“The daily trend is showing that the blockade is affecting new daily cases,” said Head. “However, it is important to remember that the impact on hospitalizations will only be really visible from the trends that begin in the last week of January, and deaths are expected to fall in February.”
For now, all of this means that strict restrictions will remain in place for some time.
Senior government officials have said repeatedly that it is too early to speculate on easing the blocking measures that are now scheduled to take effect until March and possibly in the summer.
“It may well mean, for example, that any blockage may have to last longer than would be the case with the old variant,” said Head.