PJ Tucker is the perfect storm of the trading deadline. He’s not the kind of niche actor that competitors tend to add in the long run. Its positional versatility makes it as valuable for teams that need attackers as for teams looking for a small ball center. He doesn’t need the ball, and despite this, he usually shoots at the mid league level. His $ 8 million salary is easy enough for most teams to match in one exchange, and at 35, it won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire. Add it all up and Tucker may be the most negotiable player in all of basketball.
This makes it surprisingly difficult to find a suitable home for him. Where do you send the player that fits everywhere? How much does it cost to acquire the player that almost anyone could theoretically afford? There is no single, prominent destination for Tucker because he would thrive anywhere.
So, with Tucker leaving Houston, let’s take a look at the likelihood that each competitor will hit Tucker. The fit of the basketball is important, but given the adaptability of Tucker’s game, the equivalent wage available, tradable assets and the need for the attacking court will be the deciding factors here. Instead of classifying the teams individually, we will divide the rival class into three levels, from the least to the most likely to acquire it by March 25th.
Layer 3: very unlikely
Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers could match Tucker’s salary to that of Lou Williams, but the question is why they would care. Would Tucker help them? Right. But the line-ups with Marcus Morris scored an unfathomable 136 points 100 possessions this season, according to Cleaning the Glass. They gave up almost as much, but if the main objective of the line-ups of five eliminated is to increase the score, the Clippers are already covered on that front. With Morris, Nic Batum, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, they already have more than enough to attack. Their shortcomings are in the guard (where they could use an ace, which Tucker is not) and in the front, where their pivots may not be strong enough to face Anthony Davis in a playoff match with the Lakers. Tucker proved last season that he doesn’t help on that front. It would be useful, but redundant with Clippers.
Phoenix Suns: Jae Crowder does almost the same things that Tucker does, and Dario Saric-in-the-center lineups are beating opponents by more than 25 points per 100 possessions. Tucker is simply not needed here, and while the Suns could collect the salary to get it from young people like Jalen Smith and Jevon Carter, they just aren’t going to be motivated enough to do that to bring Tucker back to Phoenix.
Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks would love Tucker. Their dedication to changing screens in the regular season suggests that they want to be smaller in the playoffs, and replacing Tucker in place of Brook Lopez would be a big help on that front. The question is what the Bucks would give up. They don’t have a single negotiable choice from the first round and the four items from the second round that they can negotiate are not particularly valuable. Donte DiVincenzo is too important to be traded by Tucker, but the Bucks lack any other significant young talent, unless the Rockets like Pat Connaughton more than the rest of the NBA. Milwaukee will try, but he probably will not have ammunition to beat the bids of the other teams on this list.
Utah Jazz: Jazz has the initial capital to acquire Tucker. They may even have the need, as their net rating drops to almost neutral when Rudy Gobert leaves the game. But its salary structure is not favorable to the acquisition of Tucker. Jazz has only eight players on its roster who earn more than $ 2 million, and each of them is essential to the rotation. The most likely of these seven to serve as an equivalent salary in a Tucker deal would probably be Derrick Favors, since Tucker would presumably take over his central reserve minutes, but such an exchange would not only remove two major lineups as a post-season possibility, but would also force Jazz to drastically alter its defensive scheme whenever Gobert left the game. As the Bucks saw, going back and forth between the exchange and the fall tends to put unhealthy pressure on defenses, especially those that are not used to it. You could argue that Jazz should be shifting and not falling into the playoffs anyway, and the story may support that idea on a broader level, but Utah’s defense is special because of Rudy Gobert’s rim protection. Giving up on all of this for the sake of increased commutability undermines the entire Utah scheme. If there is a way to get Tucker without compromising on rotation, Jazz should pursue it, but doing so would be extremely difficult.
Layer 2: moderately likely
Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers have a negotiable choice in the first round in 2027, and they will Talen Horton-Tucker if the Rockets prefer to add a young player to a draft choice. Equivalent salary is your big problem. They currently have less than $ 2 million in flexibility under the hard limit. This means that one of the three players would probably have to be in any business with Tucker: Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Montrezl Harrell. Given the difficulty that the Lakers will have in retaining him and a non-essential place in the rotation, Harrell is the most likely of the three to be traded. But is Tucker worth Harrell, a pick and / or Horton-Tucker? Especially for a team that has a somewhat similar player in Markieff Morris? This is for Rob Pelinka to decide.
Brooklyn Nets: The Nets would be a perfect fit for Tucker on the court. They have already switched as a basis for their defensive scheme, he played with James Harden in Houston and they are still trying to resolve his central rotation. The question is, if Brooklyn were to pick up Tucker, wouldn’t they have done that in Harden’s exchange? If there was something else that the Rockets wanted from Brooklyn, wouldn’t they have extracted it when they had Harden to swing as a lever? Spencer Dinwiddie’s salary salary makes a deal logistically possible, but it just doesn’t seem particularly likely given Tucker’s absence from the first blockbuster between these teams.
Philadelphia 76ers: Daryl Morey is the pioneering general manager in Tucker’s role at the center. He knows his value as well as anyone and could absorb Tucker’s salary through the $ 8.2 million business exception generated in the Al Horford business (although that was prohibitively expensive compared to the luxury tax). Sending a suitable asset return to Houston would also not be a problem. Philadelphia has several first-round choices to work with, and even though Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle are too valuable to give up on Tucker, Shake Milton can be a viable middle ground. But is updating the attacking court really a priority for Philly? Probably not, especially if Thybulle stays with the team until the deadline. 76ers will likely focus on adding guard help, or if a star of any kind is available, building a blockbuster on that front. Morey would love to meet with Tucker, but his attention is likely to be focused elsewhere.
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland owes only one choice in the first round to another team: the one it sent to Houston (which was redirected to Detroit) as part of Robert Covington’s negotiation. Here is the problem: this choice is so strongly protected that technically it may not be passed on until 2027, and yet it can become second-round items. This prevents the Blazers from negotiating any choice in the first round. They do have some workarounds on the list, however. For example, Anfernee Simons is eligible for extension this off-season, but Gary Trent Jr. has overtaken him in Portland’s defense hierarchy. Could he be expendable in a deal with Tucker? How about the injured Zach Collins, who will be a restricted free agent this off-season? Blazers could match the salary by sending Rodney Hood, whose 2021-22 salary is not guaranteed, but his emphasis on domestic development is likely to prevent trade.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors plan to be aggressive on time, but it’s important to note that Tucker will be a free agent this offseason and Golden State is trying to build a championship squad next season, not this season. They could match Tucker’s salary with Kevon Looney and another player, and assuming James Wiseman plays most of the central minutes next season, it may make sense to turn Looney into an upgrade elsewhere now. The Warriors do not have a negotiable first round choice to offer until 2026, but it is worth watching here for the protection of the 2021 choice they owe to Oklahoma City. If it falls between No. 1 and No. 20, the Warriors keep it, but send Thunder Minnesota into the second round of 2021, which, at the time, would be No. 31 overall. Perhaps an arrangement could be made in which the Warriors send Rockets any choice that does not go to Oklahoma City. Unless the Warriors are confident they can sign again with Tucker, they probably won’t give up anything of value to catch him.
Layer 3: Probable favorites
Miami Heat: Heat has expired contracts throughout their roster, so matching money would not be a problem. At the moment, they do not have a negotiable choice in the first round, but they make up for it with the number of young players. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are off limits, but Kendrick Nunn? Precious Achiuwa? The Heat surprisingly left a young starter at the end of last season, when they left Justise Winslow for Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder. Never doubt your short-term ambitions, especially leaving a spot in the Finals, and the defensive potential of Tucker, Iguodala, Avery Bradley, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in a single formation is mind-boggling.
Denver Nuggets: Do you need it on the attack court? Check. Denver lost Jerami Grant in this off-season and, although Michael Porter Jr. played very recently in his place as a striker, there is no reason to believe that he and Tucker could not coexist. Filling a viable salary? Check. The expiring Paul Millsap deal works, but it is more likely that the Nuggets would simply absorb Tucker in the $ 9.3 million trade exception generated by Grant’s departure. The Nuggets would need to spill a little money to avoid the tax, but it is entirely viable, and the Rockets could save a lot of money by not taking the money back in a Tucker deal. Negotiable assets? Of course, make your choice. The Nuggets have their own first-round game to offer, as well as youngsters like Zeke Nnaji, Bol Bol and RJ Hampton. The only downside here would be Denver’s hesitation to give up younger assets for a play win now. Most of its core is still in its early 20s. Tucker would be a short-term addition. Does winning in the short term matter? Tucker might as well be a Nugget.
Boston Celts: Like Denver, Boston can absorb Tucker without sending a penny back to Houston. Their trade-off exception is considerably larger, $ 28.5 million thanks to Gordon Hayward, but that’s a double-edged sword here. Will Boston be content with an older character with that exception? Probably not. They can take you off-season, if necessary, so your ambitions are probably bigger than Tucker. Still, they can match Tristan Thompson’s salary or even some of his younger players, and have all their own draft choices to balance. If the Celtics want Tucker, they have a number of different ways to get him, and have messed with small ball units in the past. The Celtics are as young as the Nuggets and may have a similar view of building their squad, but with a mediocre surplus of youth, they can spend quite a bit with a veteran like Tucker.