Colorado continues to make progress in reducing new cases and hospitalizations for COVID-19, but whether that continues will depend on what people will do – and how widely the most contagious versions of the virus are spreading.
On Monday afternoon, 535 people were hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That is just over a quarter of the number of people who received hospital care for the virus at the worst time in December, but more than double the number at the lowest point during the summer.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 8,460 new cases in the week ending Sunday. It was the lowest weekly total since mid-October.
It will be difficult to know whether the Super Bowl had any impact on the virus’s trajectory, because many other things are changing at the same time, said Dr. Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. Many counties relaxed public health restrictions on Saturday, so if there is an increase, it will be difficult to know whether it was due to parties or policies. And more people are being vaccinated, which could cancel a small increase in celebrations, he said.
The improvement since December shows that the restrictions put in place to combat November’s deadly spike were effective, and that people generally followed them and were careful with their face-to-face interactions, Samet said. Those conditions kept the virus under control enough that the state could look to ease some restrictions, he said.
On Saturday, the state’s dial structure changed, increasing the number of cases a county could have before it had to move to the next level of restrictions. In the case of Denver, this meant that the county could move from Orange to Yellow. At the Yellow Level, restaurants, gyms and other businesses could operate at 50% capacity, which is twice what is allowed at the Orange Level.
Samet said he has “hopes” that cases and hospitalizations will continue to fall, but the number of factors that influence the path of the virus makes it difficult to predict. Current policies and people’s behavior have reduced cases and hospitalizations since December, and vaccines are also working to our advantage, he said. At the same time, if people feel safe and start to mix more freely, it can give the virus a boost.
“I would like to know how that balance would work out,” he said.
New variants of the virus are also a potential wildcard. The state found 37 cases of variants of concern because they spread more easily and 16 cases of variants whose meaning is unknown. Viruses mutate constantly, forming new variants, but only a few have worrying characteristics, such as being more contagious or more lethal.
There is insufficient data to know how widely B.1.1.7, a more contagious version of the virus first identified in the United Kingdom, is actually spreading in Colorado, Samet said. If this variant becomes common, it will increase the number of cases and hospitalizations, he said.
Since March, 406,276 people in Colorado have tested positive for the virus and 22,329 have been hospitalized. The state reported 5,733 coronavirus-related deaths.
Subscribe to the biweekly newsletter to receive health news directly in your inbox.