Colorado’s COVID-19 hospitalizations increased on Monday, but those watching will have to wait a few days to see if it is a problem or cause of greater concern.
On Monday afternoon, 369 people were hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19, against 324 on Sunday. Monday’s number was the highest total since March 3, but still less than a fifth of the number in early December.
It is possible that Monday’s bump was a fluke, but it is clear that cases and hospitalizations are not decreasing as fast as in December and early January, said Beth Carlton, associate professor of occupational and environmental health at the School of Colorado Public Health. Hospitalizations sometimes increase the day after a storm, because people who postpone seeking care leave after the weather improves.
Although the numbers appear to be on a plateau now, previous periods of flattening did not last long, because the virus or efforts to control it have gained the upper hand, she said.
“Flat is a very unstable place to be,” she said.
This week’s case numbers are difficult to interpret. The total decreased by about 400 new infections compared to the previous week, with 6,332 reported cases. Tests also dropped significantly, however, with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment recording about half the number of people tested on Sunday than at the same time a week earlier.
The test sites were closed along the Front Range because of heavy snow, and some remained closed on Monday.
The percentage of positive tests increased slightly over the weekend, but this may also reflect fewer people being tested because of the winter storm. If the storm prevents some people from being tested, there may be an increase in cases or a decrease in positivity as the Front Range digs in the coming days.
Carlton said Colorado faces three challenges in keeping the virus contained: the spread of new variants; spring break, which can attract people from states with less restrictions to ski cities; and general fatigue after a year of pandemic. The modeling team at the School of Public Health estimates that 20% to 25% of coloradans may be immune because of previous vaccination or infection, but that still leaves many people vulnerable, she said.
“We are definitely not out of the woods yet,” she said.
The state health department announced on Friday night that five additional inmates at the Buena Vista Correctional Complex tested positive for a variant of the virus found for the first time in South Africa, bringing the total to eight cases. The immune system has a harder time recognizing variant B.1.351, so vaccines are a little less effective against it and people who had a different version of the virus could be infected again.
The state found 312 cases of “worrying variants”. Almost all were caused by B.1.1.7, a variant found for the first time in the United Kingdom. This version is more contagious and can cause more serious illnesses.
However, the counties with the most new cases are not those where the variants appear to be spreading. B.1.1.7 appeared mainly throughout Front Range, but Pitkin, Washington, Crowley and Mineral counties had the highest number of new cases when compared to the population.
The current status of the counties are:
- Pitkin County: Yellow level in the state dial structure; cases would qualify you for the Orange Level, and the percentage of tests that tested positive is sufficient for the Red Level
- Washington County: Blue Level; cases and positivity are at the Orange Level
- Crowley County: Blue Level; the cases are at the Orange Level, but the positivity is at the Blue Level
- Mineral County: Blue Level; cases and positivity are at Red Level
Lake and Clear Creek counties – at the Yellow Level and at the Blue Level, respectively – also have positivity rates that would put them at the highest Orange Level, although their case count remains low.
It is not clear whether any of the counties will move on the dial, however. Last week, the state health department issued an order allowing counties to exceed the cutoff numbers for their position on the dial by up to 15%, for up to five days, before they can be forced to move to a more restrictive level.
Washington County was the only one of the four within the 15% grace zone on Monday, but counties previously had at least two weeks to return to compliance before making changes.