Outbreaks of COVID-19 in schools, colleges, restaurants and churches in Colorado have increased for three consecutive weeks after state restrictions were loosened and students began to return to school.
No one has definitively linked changes in state policy to increased outbreaks, but there is a different pattern. Outbreaks in all four environments fell in December and early January. They started to rise again in the middle of the month, with state data showing increases on January 20 and the two subsequent Wednesdays.
At most other sites monitored by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, the number of outbreaks was stable or fluctuated without a clear pattern. The number of outbreaks in nursing homes and assisted living facilities, where a disproportionate number of deaths occurred, continued to decline.
The state defines an outbreak as two or more cases linked to a specific location or event. The most recent outbreaks linked to schools, colleges, restaurants and religious facilities have had 10 or fewer cases.
Schools in the Denver area gradually began to bring back more students over the course of January, and parts of the state were quicker to resume face-to-face classes. Districts and state officials have warned that there is likely to be an increase as students have returned from remote education.
At the same time, the state began easing restrictions on indoor dining and other meetings, beginning with Governor Jared Polis’ announcement that 33 counties at the “Red Level” in the state’s dial structure would move to the “Orange Level” on January 4 Indoor restaurants had to close at the red level, but restaurants could open at 25% capacity at the lower level.
Conor Cahill, a spokesman for Polis, said state epidemiologists do not see the increase in restaurant outbreaks as a trend.
“The governor is always concerned that there is an increase in the spread of the virus and, fortunately, thanks to the persistence and commitment of the people of Colorado, the outbreaks have been decreasing slowly since November,” he said.
The state also lifted the frequency limit to religious services, which it classified as essential services, in early December. Religious facilities are still required to keep different families 1.8 m apart.
Lisa Miller, professor of epidemiology at the Colorado School of Public Health, cautioned against reading the outbreak data too much. Less than 1% of COVID-19 cases are linked to outbreaks, because it is difficult to determine where someone may have been infected, she said.
“It’s a small piece of the whole picture,” she said.
Wednesday’s state data showed the following outbreaks:
- From kindergarten to elementary school: 98 outbreaks, against 73 on January 13. The largest is at Liberty Common Charter School in Fort Collins, with 66 cases.
- Universities: 15 outbreaks, out of seven. The biggest is the ongoing community outbreak at the University of Colorado Boulder, with 2,821 cases.
- Restaurants: 39 outbreaks, compared to 28. The vast majority of cases are linked to two In-N-Out locations, where a total of 173 employees were infected.
- Religious facilities: 20 outbreaks, compared to 12. The largest is linked to an event in July organized by Andrew Wommack Ministries in Teller County, with 154 cases.
An outbreak is considered to be in progress until four weeks have passed without any case related to it.