This college football season has been longer for some and shorter for others, but no matter what, it comes to an end on Monday night in Miami Gardens, Florida. Hard Rock Stadium marks the spot where Alabama’s No. 1 will face Ohio State’s No. 3 in the National College Football Playoff Championship. It is not the first time that these schools have met at this event, but it is the first time that they will dispute the national title.
In 2014, the first year of the playoff, Ohio No. 4 defeated Alabama No. 1, 42-35, in the Sugar Bowl semifinal. The Buckeyes beat Oregon the following week to win the national title. They haven’t returned to the title game since. Meanwhile, this will be Alabama’s fifth appearance in six years, with Crimson Tide trying to win their third title since 2015.
So, what will happen this time? Alabama is a big favorite based on the spread, and if we look at the total, we should expect a lot of points scored. Let’s take a look at all the available bets and find out which ones are the best.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Most recent odds:
Alabama Crimson Tide -8.5
Spread (Alabama -8): The line opened with Alabama at -7.5, but grew as the game approaches. The odds are that this is due to both public action (casual public gamblers tend to like favorites) and news of a possible postponement of the game. It was reported earlier in the week that the state of Ohio was dealing with problems with COVID-19 that could leave it short of players to play on Monday. The concerns were allayed somewhat by Ohio State Athletic Director Gene Smith, saying the school plans to play as scheduled. Still, if the game is played on Monday, we don’t know how it affects the Ohio state squad.
Will the Buckeyes lose a number of important initiators? And if so, what positions will be affected? It is vital information to have a handicap game, but it is also important to remember that this is not the first time that the state of Ohio has dealt with such issues. The Buckeyes had three games postponed this year due to COVID-19, and one of them (against Illinois) was due to an outbreak in their squad. They returned a week later against Michigan State, losing half of their offensive line and other players, and won 52-12. A few weeks later, against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes were losing famous players like receiver Chris Olave and linebacker Baron Browning. They also won, but not as convincingly.
Even last week against Clemson, it was Ohio State without a few players that still managed to win convincingly, 49-28. Still, as good as Clemson is, Alabama is a totally different case. Assuming that large parts of the list are not missing, this is an Ohio state team capable of creating problems for Alabama. The Crimson Tide has been an absolute steamroller for the entire season. Their attack is led by three players who finished in the top five of the Heisman Trophy, voting with wide receiver winner DeVonta Smith, as well as quarterback Mac Jones and running back Najee Harris. They also have one of the best offensive lines in the country and, oh yes, they can have WR Jaylen Waddle back this week too.
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So, to make a long story short, you are not going to stop the attack on Alabama. It will add up to at least 35 points, and your only hope is to contain as many moves as possible. In the end, you need to beat Alabama, which is difficult to do not only because the attack is prolific, but also because your defense has been excellent. He ranks 13th nationally in points allowed per game, with 19, although more advanced defensive metrics like SP + rank him fifth nationally.
If you look at Alabama’s performance this season, two games stand out as fights. The first was in October, when Ole Miss scored 48 points, and the last was in the SEC Championship game, when Florida scored 46. These are two offenses that can stretch the field vertically with your passing game. The Notre Dame offense Alabama faced last week cannot do that. This Ohio state offense – featuring QB Justin Fields and WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson – can do just that.
In addition, the Ohio State attack drives the ball more effectively than any of these teams. The emergence of Trey Sermon’s transfer in Oklahoma (636 running yards and four touchdowns in the last three games) added another dimension to the Ohio State attack and lifted much of the burden off Justin Fields’ shoulders. The Buckeyes must be able to move the ball and score in this Alabama defense. That’s why, with the information now available, Buckeyes cover the spread. Choose: Ohio State +8
Total (75): If we look at these two teams, the over was a smart bet for both this season. The balance is 7-5 in Alabama’s 12 games, and 4-2-1 in Ohio’s seven. What is most relevant to this discussion, however, are the points involved in these games.
There was an average of 67.2 points scored in Alabama’s 12 games this season. Only three Alabama games had more than 75 points in this total. There was a 52-24 victory over Texas A&M, a 63-48 victory over Ole Miss and a 52-46 victory over Florida. This would be the fourth time that Alabama played a game with a total in the 1970s, and they won in two of the three (Ole Miss, Florida). The third, against Arkansas, finished 15.5 points below the projected total.
On the Ohio side, their games averaged 65.4 points. Of the seven games the Buckeyes played, three exceeded that total of 75 points as well. There was a 49-27 victory over Rutgers, a 42-35 victory over Indiana and a 49-28 victory over Clemson last week. None of these games had such a high total. The 69 total in last week’s semifinal against Clemson was the highest.
Now, if we move to the National College Football Playoff Championship itself, we see that this is the highest total for any title game in the seven years of the event. The previous record was in the 2014 Ohio State game in Oregon, which was set at 72.5; the teams finished well below that with 62 points. The average total for the first six games for the title was 57.8 points, and the average game for the title ended with 64.8 points. The only game in the title to end with more than 75 points was at the end of the 2015 season, when Alabama beat Clemson 45-40.
These are two prolific offenses, capable of matching that feat, which is why the total is so high. But, considering history and betting, the smartest move here is to take control. It will probably be a scary trip, but sometimes you have to do what you have to do. Choice: Less than 75
Special sides: Although I have the state of Ohio covering the full game spread, I like Alabama’s value in the first quarter. Throughout the season, Ohio State was a slower start team in the first quarter, and recovers in the second quarter. In the first quarter, the Buckeyes attack ranked 10th nationally, scoring 10.4 points per game; however, the defense occupies the 40th place, allowing 4.9 points. In the second quarter, the state of Ohio ranks third nationally with 14.9 points scored, and the defense jumps to the first national, allowing only 2.9 points. Compare that to Alabama, which ranks third nationally in points scored per game in the first quarter (12.2) and 14th in defense with only 3.1 points allowed. Based on these trends, the odds favor Alabama’s leadership after the first 15 minutes. Choice: Alabama -0.5 First Quarter
So, who will beat Alabama against Ohio State in the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship, and which side of the spread will have all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model on a 56-36 roll in highly rated college football choices.