The Clemson Tigers ended one of the most historic college basketball streak last season, taking down North Carolina Tar Heels at Chapel Hill for the first time. UNC is better in 2020-21, but so is Clemson, who enters his last foray into ACC as a top-20 team. Our experts took a look at that game and other major weekend competitions, while also highlighting the current state of the race for the 2021 Madeira Prize and some of the major recent matches between university rims.
(Editor’s note: Clemson in North Carolina was postponed on Friday)
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It took 60 games and 93 years for Clemson to win at Chapel Hill, and there seems to be a reasonable chance that the Tigers, from 19th place, will get two consecutive wins on Saturday (19h ET, ESPN). How do you think this Tar Heels team will position itself in March? Give fans a reason to think that this may still be a relevant North Carolina team. (editor’s note: North Carolina’s Clemson was postponed on Friday).
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: I think this team will still play to become a seed 8 or 9, but I don’t know if it will move forward. These Tar Heels, who get a lot of offensive rebounds, but can’t do much with these second chance opportunities because they can’t shoot, seem vulnerable to a turnaround in the first round this crazy year.
With Caleb Love on the ground, they produced just 92 points for every 100 possessions and deals committed to nearly a fifth of their possessions, by hooplens.com. If they are unable to find the shipowner’s place, they will have more problems in the coming months. Relevance? Well, they still have a bunch of five-star ex-recruits and a top-20 defensive unit. If offensive efficiency improves, they could win games in March. Perhaps.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball specialist: When entering the season, my biggest concern with the Tar Heels was the score of the wings and whether they could find a consistent perimeter shot. I thought Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot would take most of the load from the inside, I loved Day’Ron Sharpe in high school and hoped Love would be an elite point guard quickly. The last part has not yet happened and that has been a big problem.
Carolina is struggling with the upset and struggling to make 3 shots, and I’m not sure of any of those changes anytime soon. That said, I don’t think the ACC top is very good, so they should finish in the top six or seven of the league and make the NCAA tournament like a 9-10 seed. This team has defended itself better than Carolina’s last iterations, the country group is still elite and I still have some hope in Love.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: This may still be a relevant UNC team because the Tar Heels do two things very well. North Carolina plays defense and breaks the offensive glass. As for the shot, well, did I mention that North Carolina plays defense and breaks the offensive glass? These two characteristics can be enough to finish two or three games over 0.500 in the ACC game and win, say, a seed # 9 in the tournament. If nothing else, the Heels can always miss a shot (it does occasionally) and rely on Brooks, Bacot or Sharpe to pick it up.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist: What the Tar Heels really need is for Cole Anthony to be a year younger. The former star of last season would be a missing piece for this year’s unbalanced team. In the real world, however, the North Carolina perimeter has a long way to go to balance its productive front line. The size of the UNC is still a significant advantage, but the rest of the team would be seriously beaten against the best teams in the country. Fortunately, it looks like none of the best teams play at ACC, so the Heels should be entering the tournament. They will not wear white, however, and the First Four are not out of the question.
The 25-player Wooden Prize watch list was unveiled on Wednesday night. How would the first 3 of your wooden ballot look now?
Medcalf: Let’s be honest. Luka Garza, from Iowa, occupies all three vacancies, right? I think the field is fighting for second place. If, before the season, I told you that Garza, who finished second for Obi Toppin in last year’s race, would come back as a big 1.80m man, shooting 49% of the 3-point line, 66% of within the arc and 74% of the charity band, all for America’s best offensive team at KenPom, you may not have believed me. But that is what happened. This is his prize.
For number 2, I’ll choose Corey Kispert from Gonzaga. During the 2013-14 season, Doug McDermott averaged 26.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, hitting 45% of his attempts at 3 points. Kispert has an average of 21.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 2.2 APG for America’s No. 1 team, while making 51% of his 3-point attempts despite playing alongside a point guard, Jalen Suggs, that could be the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft. No. 3 would be Ayo Dosunmu of Illinois (23.0 PPG).
Gasaway: Garza, Jared Butler of Baylor and Hunter Dickinson of Michigan. To be clear, Dickinson was not included in the middle of season 25 and he will not be less than a kilometer from the Madeira Prize. He’s a freshman who hasn’t been promoted to any significant degree before the season, so he won’t be able to outperform (worthy!) Like Garza and Butler. But everyone do me a favor and compare the young man’s 2-point accuracy and the use of possession with what we saw from a certain (rightly!) Duke freshman two years ago. It is an enlightening comparison.
Lunardi: Garza is the obvious number one choice, and that shouldn’t change. Then I will go with the best players from the two best teams, Drew Timme from Gonzaga and Jared Butler from Baylor. In fact, if pressed, Butler and Ayo Dosunmu would be tied for third. And, randomly, how confusing would it be if Butler had a star by the name of Jared Baylor?
Borzello: I think Garza is the obvious choice at number 1 right now. He entered the season as the big favorite to win the Wood Award, and he did not disappoint. Their “bad” games are still 18 and 6, 22 and 9, 16 and 14. These numbers alone can be good enough to put a player on an American team. I would choose Dosunmu as number 2, although I think there is a very considerable gap between Garza and Dosunmu. Dosunmu scored at least 30 points on three occasions, was very good in late game situations and dramatically improved his external kick.
I love Hunter Dickinson of Gasaway, and Jared Butler would be on my mid-season All-American team, but I will go with a choice of Gonzaga players for my No. 3. The first weeks of the season would have been Suggs. So Timme would have been the choice. Now, however, Kispert is playing out of his mind. He has scored at least 25 points in three of the last four games and is shooting 75.8% in 2 and 50.8% in 3.
Four players on Wooden Watch’s starting list – Keyontae Johnson (Florida), Caleb Mills (Houston), Chris Smith (UCLA) and Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia) – will not play again this season. Which of your teams can best withstand this absence and make noise in March, and which one has the biggest problems?
Borzello: I’m going with Houston. I think the Cougars are clearly the AAC class, with or without Mills, and that probably means that they should enter the NCAA tournament in the best form in terms of spread. Kelvin Sampson is also loaded on the perimeter. Quentin Grimes is having the kind of season that we all expected to leave college a few years ago, Marcus Sasser is great and DeJon Jarreau is kind of a dick for every job. Freshman Tramon Mark also had his moments.
In fact, I think all four teams should survive the absences and make it to the NCAA tournament, but Florida may be in more trouble. Keyontae Johnson was the best player of the aforementioned four absentees and, although transfers Anthony Duruji (Louisiana Tech) and Colin Castleton (Michigan) have played well in the last few games, I am more concerned about the Gators.
Medcalf: I also think Houston will be fine. Mills’ role was shifting to an excellent Cougars team that didn’t need him to record the minutes he played a year ago. We saw Justin Gorham (12.5 PPG in the last two games without Mills) doing more in attack to help his team beat SMU and Wichita State in consecutive games. Sampson has depth with this group.
I also think that Florida had the most success on this list. Johnson was becoming a potential choice for the first round when he collapsed against the state of Florida in the scariest incident of the year. In addition, the SEC looks like a more complicated race than it appeared to be entering the season.
Gasaway: Houston certainly looks fine without Mills. The Cougars are a basket away from being undefeated and, as it is, we are likely to see this team finish the regular season with an exceptionally small number in the losing column. Mills was last year’s top scorer, but it was not the last word on efficiency. In his absence, Grimes played this role skillfully, and UH is overwhelming American opponents with offensive boards and trips to the line.
Lunardi: The automatic response is Houston, for all the reasons articulated above. But West Virginia’s epic return to Oklahoma is still what matters most, and Bob Huggins seems more than happy to face Derek Culver as the lone wolf up front. I think the Mountaineers will be fine and, unfortunately, the biggest loss will be Keyontae Johnson, from Florida.
ESPN.com experts’ pick for this weekend’s best games
(Lines, when available, from the Caesars Sportsbook. Predictors do not have access to the lines when making score predictions.)