The Arctic is now open for business all year round, after a large commercial ship sailed the North Sea Route from Jiangsu, China, to a Russian gas plant on the Arctic coast, for the first time during February, when winter temperatures normally make the icy waterway impassable.
The oil tanker, owned by Russian shipping company Sovcomflot, was able to make the trip across Arctic sea ice because it is no longer frozen all winter due to human-induced global warming.
The ability to make this trip 365 days a year opens up new and vast possibilities for the shipping industry, which transports 80% of the world’s cargo in volume and 70% of global trade in value. But it also raises concerns about how the race to capitalize on the new route could affect geopolitics.
To better understand what this new possibility in the Arctic means for the rest of the world, I spoke with Juliette Kayyem, senior lecturer on international security at Belfer at Harvard Kennedy School.
Kayyem served in the Obama administration as an assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, where she played a key role in managing important operations, including the government’s response to BP’s 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Kayyem reacted in Twitter to the news of the Arctic tanker’s historic voyage, writing that the moment was “so important you can’t understand it”. To find out more about why she finds it so monumental, I called her. Our discussion, edited for greater length and clarity, is below.
Jariel Arvin
What exactly changed with this news?
Juliette Kayyem
In the past, trade had to work from north to south, simply because the Arctic was never a navigator. Ships can now travel from Europe to China on an east-west route. This will put more competition on the north-south passages to maintain its commercial activity.
Eighty percent of the world’s products by volume are transported by cargo, so this is no joke. For 100 years, the cargo has essentially followed the same path through the Suez Canal. Thus, with days cut in transit time, as well as [not having to pay] all the taxes and fees associated with being a port city or canal like the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal – all of that will change.
Jariel Arvin
How does this change, for example, how a Chinese cargo ship would have traveled?
Juliette Kayyem
To make Europe alone, China would have gone from Holland through the Suez Canal – south of India, to China to Dalian, which is its main area. Now, if you look at the route, it is cut in half. Now, you can take the route from the north, to the east. It is incomprehensible.
Jariel Arvin
Therefore, Russia and China will obviously be interested in transporting goods along the North Sea Route. Which other countries will be competing for a bet?
Juliette Kayyem
Japan, Vietnam, Russia, virtually all countries. Australia will want to go there. I mean, why not, since it is much shorter? Now there will be pressure and competition. Now you just [opened up] a huge competitive market.
Jariel Arvin
What about the USA?
Juliette Kayyem
The United States, because we no longer sign treaties, are not signatories to the Law of the Sea. But we are members of the Arctic Council, which is a kind of ad hoc [international] system to try to deal with everything in the Arctic, from who has access to which minerals to [how to manage] traffic.
Jariel Arvin
What do you think the impact of this new competition will be?
Juliette Kayyem
There are two parts: the environmental part and the geopolitical part. For the environment, this is equivalent to opening an ocean. The waters will move in a way that they have not moved before. The ice is melting in a way that means the water has to go somewhere, and this will cause sea levels to rise, impacting coastal cities around the world.
Absolutely true. The consequences will be shocking; I described it as imagining an ocean just appearing on land. Where is this going? The climatic consequences are immeasurable. Security ones too. This is what China wanted ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/K8NZMYr9Rv
– Juliette Kayyem (@juliettekayyem) February 22, 2021
And the role of human activity in accelerating this change is undeniable. Global warming has had a considerable impact on the Arctic. As I wrote for the Boston Globe, it was about a decade ago that things started to change there, in the sense that countries were positioning themselves to take control.
You will start to see the cruise lines. It’s beautiful up there. So that’s why, even 10 years ago, I started feeling – anticipatory nausea is how I would describe it – anticipated because we knew that the opening of the Arctic to all types of traffic would happen, and nauseated because there is no doubt that induced climate change by the man was having a big impact.
Jariel Arvin
So, what do you think the future holds for the Arctic in terms of geopolitics?
Juliette Kayyem
You will have many countries with a lot of interest, without a lot of governance and a lot of traffic. And that, for me, as security, means problems.
Jariel Arvin
Why is this a problem?
Juliette Kayyem
Well, that raises a number of issues that raise national security issues. One is: who gets which routes and when? And who will drill where? So, let’s say a bunch of geologists discover that there is a huge oil slick farther away, so that no country owns the well. So, who drills?
Jariel Arvin
From now on, who is in control to help manage these international tensions in the Arctic?
Juliette Kayyem
These are the types of issues that the Arctic Council will have to deal with. You will also have to impose things like offshore drilling, mineral property, traffic and who goes first, which are difficult issues. Accidents are a big problem. What if there is an accident? There will now be many problems to be solved.
Jariel Arvin
Is there anything that can be done about this new reality?
Juliette Kayyem
I think this new reality will mean greater US engagement in the Arctic, so this will be a major test of leadership for Biden’s presidency, because this is an issue where we need a counterattack on Russia and China.
This will also be a great time for John Kerry, who was pushing for greater Arctic governance against a Republican Senate when he was Secretary of State and was unable to approve it. It is something that Kerry has been focused on for a long time. And now, wearing the environmental hat as Biden’s envoy to the climate, the potential for doing so is much greater.