- US Navy aircraft carriers have been a dominant force in the world’s oceans for decades.
- But Russia and China, seen as the United States’ two main rivals for years to come, are working hard on new weapons that could threaten this dominance.
- Visit the Business Insider home page for more stories.
In August, China launched two ballistic missiles that, according to a Chinese military expert, hit a moving target ship in the South China Sea, thousands of kilometers from its launch sites.
If true, the test – which came a month after the US deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups in the region and the day after a U.S. U-2 spy plane observed an actual Chinese navy fire exercise – is the first known demonstration of anti-ship ballistic missile range against a moving target.
“We are doing this because of your provocation,” said Wang Xiangsui, a former Chinese colonel and professor at Beihang University in Beijing, referring to the developments, calling the test “an alert to the United States”.
Not to be outdone, the Russian Navy conducted its third test launch of the hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile Zircon in the White Sea in December. Launched from a frigate, the missile reached a speed of Mach 8 before hitting a “coastal target” more than 320 kilometers away.
The tests are just the last indication that American aircraft carriers, long seen as kings of the seas, may soon face a real threat to their existence.
High priority targets
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, USS Carl Vinson, and other U.S. Navy ships during a passing exercise with the Indian Navy in 2012.
US Navy photo
American airlines have always been among the biggest targets of their rivals. While the Soviets publicly criticized the carriers as “the oppressors of the national liberation movements”, they recognized them as a dominant weapon platform.
This was especially the case after they realized that the wings of American planes included aircraft carrying nuclear cargo.
Disqualified CIA documents reveal that in the 1980s the Soviets rarely criticized carriers in internal discussions and even praised them for providing “high combat stability”. A 1979 document stated that aircraft carriers would be “the top priority in anti-ship attacks” in potential war scenarios, with amphibious assault ships likely to be close behind.
Plans to deal with carriers were based almost entirely on anti-ship cruise missiles fired from submarines, bombers and surface ships – preferably all at once. To that end, the Soviet Navy emphasized cruise missile technology and the ability to transport missiles on all of its ships – even on its own aircraft carriers.
Kiev-class aircraft carrier of the Soviet Navy Minsk, February 9, 1983.
US Air Force / Staff Sergeant Glenn Lindsey
The Soviet navy’s Tu-16, Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers were the main air launch systems. Nuclear-powered cruisers of the Kynda, Kresta, Slava and Kirov classes were the main surface delivery platforms.
A series of nuclear and diesel-electric submarines, like the Oscar II and the Juliett classes, would launch these missiles underwater and on the surface.
But even that may not have been enough. The defenses and air wings of American aircraft carriers were considered so strong by the Soviets that up to 100 bombers would be sent to attack an aircraft carrier, with losses estimated at 50%. Soviet pilots did not even receive detailed flight paths for their return.
It was also feared that the missiles could be shot down or intercepted, so that the Soviets concluded that many should be armed with nuclear warheads.
Decreased operator dominance
The USS Nimitz departs from the Naval Air Station North Island in San Diego on June 8, 2020.
US Navy / MCS 2nd class Natalie M. Byers
With the end of the Cold War and the end of the Soviet Union, the dominance of American airlines seemed more than guaranteed. These operators have played important roles in the conflicts in which the United States has been involved since the 1990s.
But the post-Cold War order is slowly being challenged – mainly by the meteoric increase in China’s military might, which has implications for the aircraft carrier’s dominance.
American airlines are among Beijing’s biggest concerns. His presence helped to halt an invasion of Taiwan in the 1950s and, in 1996, two aircraft carrier battle groups embarrassed China by operating freely around Taiwan during a period of heightened tensions, forcing Beijing to recognize military power from the USA.
Since then, China has invested heavily in anti-carrier resources. First, it purchased a large number of weapons from Russia, including Su-30MKK multirole fighters, 12 Kilo-class attack submarines and four Sovremenny-class guided-missile destroyers.
DF-26 ballistic missiles pass through the Gate of Heavenly Peace in Beijing during a military parade for the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II on September 3, 2015.
Andy Wong / Pool via REUTERS
But missiles have been China’s main focus. It has accumulated one of the largest and most advanced missile arsenals in the world, 95% of which are outside the limits of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which prohibited the United States and Russia from having missiles with a range of 310 miles to 3,100 miles . The United States recently withdrew from the treaty, and China was never part of it.
The two missiles tested in August were variants of the DF-21 and DF-26, which have ranges of up to 1,300 and 2,400 miles, respectively.
Flying higher, faster and farther than Soviet cruise missiles, China’s anti-ship ballistic missiles could overwhelm an aircraft carrier’s anti-missile defenses and escorts and force the aircraft carrier to stay far enough away to disable its aerial wing.
A report by the US Department of Defense released this year stated that China’s missile development was an area in which Beijing “achieved parity – or even surpassed – the United States”.
New threats
A hypersonic Zircon cruise missile is launched from the Russian frigate Admiral Groshkov, in the White Sea north of Russia, on October 7, 2020.
Russian Ministry of Defense Press Service via AP
Hypersonic missiles are another serious threat.
Able to fly at speeds above Mach 5 (over 3,800 mph), hypersonic missiles are too fast for missile defenses to respond effectively. They can also change direction in mid-flight, making it virtually impossible to intercept them.
China has two hypersonic weapons in service: the DF-17 and the DF-100. Russia has a number of hypersonic weapons under development, with Zircon being the most promising. Russian officials said they hope to be able to arm all new Russian navy ships with hypersonic weapons.
British officials have already expressed concern about the threat that Russian hypersonic weapons can pose to their aircraft carrier.
“Hypersonic missiles are virtually unstoppable,” a British naval source told The Daily Mirror. “Without any method of missile protection like the Zircon, the aircraft carrier would have to be out of reach, hundreds of miles away at sea.”
“Their planes would be useless and the entire base of an aircraft carrier task force would be redundant,” said the source.
The true capabilities of the new anti-aircraft carrier weapons from Russia and China are still unknown, but recent tests prove that US Navy aircraft carriers may not enjoy unquestionable dominance for much longer.