WASHINGTON – The massive buildup of weapons in China has raised doubts about the United States’ ability to defend Taiwan should a war break out, reflecting a shift in the balance of power in the Pacific, where American forces once dominated, US officials and experts say.
In the simulated combat in which China tries to invade Taiwan, the results are worrying and the United States often loses, said David Ochmanek, a former Defense Department official who helps organize war games for the Pentagon in the RAND Corp think tank .
In table exercises with America as the “blue team” facing a China-like “red team”, the Taiwan air force is wiped out in minutes, the US air bases in the Pacific are attacked and American warships and aircraft are attacked. kept at bay by the long reach of China’s vast arsenal of missiles, he said.
“Even when the blue teams in our simulations and war games intervened in a determined way, they are not always able to defeat the invasion,” said Ochmanek.
A war for Taiwan remains the worst-case scenario that officials say is not imminent. But China’s growing military prowess, coupled with its aggressive rhetoric, is turning Taiwan into a potential point of conflict between Beijing and Washington – and a test case for how the United States will face China’s superpower ambitions.
The outgoing chief of the US Indo-Pacific Command of the U.S. Armed Forces, Admiral Philip Davidson, warned senators this month that the US is losing its military advantage over China and that Beijing could decide to try to take control of Taiwan by force by 2027.
“We are accumulating risks that could encourage China to unilaterally change the status quo before our forces can respond effectively,” the admiral told the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“Taiwan is clearly one of his ambitions. … And I think that the threat manifests itself during this decade, in fact, in the next six years.”
US intelligence analysts have warned for more than a decade that China’s military might was progressing at a dramatic pace and that the superiority of the United States was evaporating in the Pacific, defense officials told NBC News. Only now has the message finally reached its target, with simulated battles leading to the main point.
“You bring lieutenant colonels and commanders and subject them to this war game for three or four days. They get beaten up and have a visceral reaction to it,” said Ochmanek. “You can see the learning happen.”
Twenty years ago, China had no chance to successfully challenge the US military in the Taiwan Strait, and Pentagon planners could count on almost complete air superiority and the ability to move aircraft carriers off the east coast of Taiwan.
But a more prosperous China has invested in new warships, warplanes, cyber and space weapons and an enormous arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles designed to undermine the maritime and airpower of the U.S. armed forces.
“When you look at the numbers and ranges of systems that China deploys, it is very easy to deduce what their main target is because practically everything they build can reach Taiwan. And many things they build can really only reach Taiwan,” he said. David Shlapak, senior defense researcher at the think tank RAND Corp., who also worked on models of war games involving China.
Each generation of Chinese missiles has “an increasingly long range,” said a senior defense official, and the missiles pose a growing dilemma for the United States on how to penetrate the area around Taiwan, the official said.
Sowing doubts
Even if China refrains from direct military action against Taiwan, US officials and analysts fear that Beijing may eventually force Taipei to yield to the constant military and economic pressure that creates a perception that the US cannot guarantee the defense of the island.
“At some point, China has enough military capacity to push the Taiwanese into some sort of agreement, where you never get into a fight, but is it just that threat hanging over Taiwan’s head?” said the defense officer.
If China succeeds in subduing Taiwan’s democratic government, it will send shock waves through the United States’ network alliances and cause other democratic governments in Asia to doubt Washington’s reliability and strength, officials and experts said.
China sees the autonomous island as part of its own territory and has never renounced the possible use of force to bring it under Beijing’s control. China’s political leadership sees reunification with Taiwan as a central objective, and Beijing’s actions and statements have become more assertive in recent months.
When contacted by NBC News, the Chinese embassy in Washington pointed to recent comments by Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, who accused the United States of adopting a Cold War mentality and exaggerating tensions over Taiwan.
“In exploring the Taiwan issue to exaggerate China’s military threat, some people in the United States are actually looking for excuses to justify the increase in US military spending, the expansion of its military power” and interference in regional affairs, he said. the spokesperson.
“The United States must abandon the zero-sum mentality of the Cold War, see the development of China and the development of national defense in an objective and rational way and do more things that lead to mutual trust between China and the United States and peace and regional stability, “he said.
As of June, China began to fly regularly with fighters and bombers across the median line of the strait that separates mainland China from Taiwan, and to the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan. The flights forced Taipei to shuffle its fighters to intercept the Chinese aircraft.
Chinese military flights are part of a pressure tactic campaign designed to erode Taiwan’s small air force, the Defense official said, adding: “From Taiwan’s perspective, there is a level of fatigue associated with this.”
Taiwan has reported a series of aviation setbacks in recent months, raising questions about whether the invasion of China was impacting Taiwan’s air crews. Two Taiwanese fighters crashed on March 22 in the third incident in six months.
The U.S. Navy, meanwhile, has sent guided missile destroyers across the Taiwan Strait three times since Biden took office, and the US Air Force flew B-52 bombers to a base in Guam last month to “reinforce the rule-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region. “
The United States is legally committed to providing Taiwan with the means to maintain its self-defense, and successive presidents have approved the sale of weapons to the island, including F-16 fighter jets and Patriot missile batteries.
But Ochmanek and other analysts argue that Taiwan – and the United States – need low-tech weapons to prevent a possible Chinese invasion, and that expensive items like fighter jets and Patriot missiles will be useless in the event of a Chinese attack.
“They invested a lot of money in Patriot missiles. These Patriot missiles are going to die in the early hours of the war,” said Ochmanek. The same goes for fighter jets on the target track for potential Chinese missile volleys, he said and other experts.
Ochmanek argues that Taiwan should invest in mines, drones and anti-aircraft and mobile anti-ship missiles that can slow a Chinese and airborne amphibious invasion, providing precious time for U.S. aid to arrive.
While senior military officials agree that Taiwan and the U.S. need to adapt to the risks posed by China, it is unclear whether Congress or the Pentagon would be willing to give up buying more fighters or other expensive hardware to free up money for alternative weapons.
“We are acutely aware of the threat posed by China’s military increase, as well as its aggressive behavior in the vicinity of Taiwan,” said a spokesman for the Taiwan mission in Washington, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representation Office in the United States.
“These actions threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and are part of a broader pattern of Chinese attempts to intimidate countries in the Indo-Pacific region,” the document said.
“Taiwan has increased our defense spending in line with these challenges,” said the spokesman, and the island has plans to increase investments in “asymmetric capabilities”.
US military officials in the Pacific say the Pentagon needs to transfer more weapons and resources to Asia and transform its mindset to face China. Without a change in U.S. weapons and tactics, the US military could be at a disadvantage in Taiwan and the Pacific, potentially undermining the confidence of allies and partners who see Washington as a counterweight to China, defense officials said.
“If we do not make changes in posture, then, for sure, you will find a future where we are simply defeated,” said a second defense official.
“You cannot just maintain the same static line of forces that we designate today, particularly west of the International Date Line. This is not going to work.”
The Pentagon declined to comment.