Chinese vessels docked at Whitsun Reef on March 27, 2021.
Source: National Task Force – Western Philippine Sea via AP
Source: National Task Force – Western Philippine Sea via AP
Based on the official view of Beijing, the Philippines has no reason to worry about Chinese fishing boats parked along a disputed reef in the South China Sea.
The ships – initially numbered in the hundreds – were simply “taking shelter from the wind” and the Philippines should see the situation in a “rational light, ”said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying on March 22, when the news was first released.
Two weeks later, more than 40 boats are still at Whitsun Reef and the statements are becoming more and more concise. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs on Monday warned China will issue daily diplomatic protests as long as the “maritime militia” remains in place, using the same US language to describe the fleet stationed in an area known as the Julian Felipe reef in the Philippines and Niu’e Jiao in China.
“If your goal is to dominate a maritime space and an atoll without fighting for it, this is a brilliant, albeit dishonest, tactic,” he said. Carl Schuster, former director of operations for the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. “Only professional sailors know it is a lie – no one ‘protects’ their ships in a stormy area weeks before a storm. If they are really commercial vessels, it costs hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a day to have them sitting lazily tied together. “
Overall, it is starting to look more and more like Beijing is investigating whether President Joe Biden will take any action after pledging to work with allies in the region to stop Chinese assertiveness. The Philippine Foreign Secretary, Teodoro Locsin, guilty to the Obama administration for failing to stop China during an event incident in 2012 in Scarborough Shoal, a precursor to President Xi Jinping’s move to build military facilities across the South China Sea.
“It is a test to see what the government is willing to do,” said Schuster, who is now an adjunct faculty member of the diplomacy and military science program at Hawaii Pacific University. “The US reaction will determine the next test. Now, everything we’ve done is more rhetorical than substantive. “
The United States said last month that it supports the Philippines while accusing China of using a “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations”. Asked about Chinese relations at a news conference last month, Biden he said his government will “hold China accountable for following the rules” in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
A big problem is how to calibrate the response. China’s use of commercial fishing boats is tantamount to a “gray zone” tactic that allows Beijing to deny that something is wrong. Sending an aircraft carrier or other warships close to the reef may seem like an overreaction that would make the United States look like the aggressor.
On the other hand, doing nothing can seem weak. In recent years, the USA has increased the challenges to Chinese sovereignty in the waters, increasing the frequency of so-called freedom of navigation operations in disputed territories. The Biden government also reaffirmed that the US-Philippines defense treaty covers any attack on the South China Sea, a clarification made by President Donald Trump after decades of official ambiguity.
Another major complication for Biden is Filipino leader Rodrigo Duterte, who undermined the alliance while praising ties with Beijing.
“While President Duterte is in power, the options for the Navy are very limited,” said Rommel Ong, retired Rear Admiral of the Philippine Navy who is now a professor at the School of Government at Ateneo de Manila University. “Deprived of any coherent strategy, he limits himself to presenting diplomatic protests and declarations against China through social media.”
The Philippine statement on Monday used one of the strongest words so far, saying that a 2016 international arbitration ruling made it clear that China has no historic rights to fish in the area, which falls within the exclusive economic zone of the southeastern country. Asian. He also denounced the Chinese embassy for criticizing Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who said the weather was good and the boats had no reason to stay. “I’m not an idiot,” he said over the weekend.
‘Irrational emotions’
The Duterte government was reacting to an April 3 statement by China saying that the waters had been “a traditional fishing spot for Chinese fishermen for many years” and reiterating that it was “completely normal” for ships “to be sheltered nearby. from the reef during rough sea conditions. ”China denied that the boats were a maritime militia and said it hoped the Philippine authorities” would avoid any unprofessional comments that might stimulate even more irrational emotions “.
Duterte has personally remained quiet until now, although his spokesman Harry Roque said his view of the situation has not changed.
“The president’s position is that we will defend our rights, but that is no reason to resort to violence,” said Roque. “He is confident that, due to our close friendship with China, we will be able to resolve this.”
Damaged credibility
One factor that keeps Duterte from taking a tougher stance may be the need to secure vaccines: the metropolitan area of Manila was closed again last week amid the country’s worst coronavirus outbreak. The Philippines currently supplies the majority of its vaccines from China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd., with Duterte attending a March 29 ceremony in which Chinese ambassador Huang Zilian said the jabs were testament to a “closer partnership in the new era”.
The US “is not so naive” this time, after its failed effort in 2012 to strike a deal for a mutual withdrawal at Scarborough Shoal “has done immense damage to the U.S. credibility in Southeast Asia,” said Shahriman Lockman, senior analyst of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies of Malaysia.
“Americans are afraid to dive into it and not know if they will end up being blamed for making the situation worse, which is a real possibility with capricious leadership in Manila,” he said. “A superficial answer – that is all that is available to the Philippines.”