China shows ascendancy over the west in defining the economic path

The construction of the image is expected to continue throughout an annual legislative session that begins Friday, when Xi moves from the poverty reduction campaign to his next priority: building a modern and powerful nation by 2035.

In this “new expedition” to modernize China, the “risks and tests to be faced will be no less than in the past,” Xi told a group of middle-ranking party officials earlier this week. He renewed demands for allegiance to his leadership, saying that party members should show courage to endure hardship and take risks, and demonstrate their loyalty to the Communist Party through their actions.

Nearly 3,000 lawmakers are meeting in Beijing to review a new economic project – known as the 14th five-year plan – and general guidelines that would shape China’s growth model in the next decade and a half. Before the party’s centennial celebrations in July, the week-long conclave also offers Xi a platform to promote the merits of his autocratic style over the weaknesses of Western democracy.

China’s legislative assembly and other pompous politicians this year will be “exhibiting the party’s leadership as a model of successful governance, which is resilient and capable of delivering on its promises”, in contrast to the apparent chaos in the West, said Nis Grünberg, senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies in Berlin. “In the eyes of the Chinese leadership, the competition with the West has been won.”

In recent months, officials have touted Xi’s portrait of a rising China facing global challenges that have sown chaos elsewhere. “‘The East is growing and the West is declining’ is a trend, and developments in the international situation are favorable for us,” said Chen Yixin, a senior law enforcement officer near Xi, at a January meeting. to disseminate the leader’s vision for China’s long-term development.

While domestic economic imbalances and U.S. efforts to contain China remain serious risks, on the whole, there are more opportunities than challenges, said Chen, who asked officials to unite their thoughts and actions around Xi’s leadership.

China was the only major world economy to expand last year, after blocking its borders and central Hubei province in a successful attempt to contain the coronavirus. But the Chinese recovery remains fragile in some areas, including consumer spending, and regulators are increasingly concerned about rising home prices to unsustainable levels.

In the long run, the decline in the birth rate and the reduction in the workforce, combined with the fall in productivity, raised alarms among economists about the growth trajectory of an economy that is the second largest in the world in size, but only at the same level as Mexico and Malaysia in terms of gross domestic product per capita.

Growth may also be limited by Mr. Xi’s promises on climate change. Last year, he promised to achieve carbon neutrality – net zero carbon dioxide emissions – by 2060, with peak emissions before 2030, an ambitious target that would likely put pressure on China’s poorer, coal-dependent hinterland.

Many economists expect Beijing to avoid a formal economic growth target in 2021, citing continuing uncertainties. Still, Chinese provinces have set their own targets, reflecting optimism that the economy as a whole will recover from last year’s poor performance.

With economists expecting growth to recover to around 8% or more this year, Beijing must shift its focus to control risk and reduce debt, aiming for a smaller fiscal deficit, lower credit growth and a relatively tighter monetary policy in an annual government work plan to be launched Friday.

The conclave is expected to provide more clarity on Beijing’s 2035 targets, which include recalibrating China’s economic model to ensure fairer growth and environmental sustainability. Although Chinese officials have recently signaled plans to address controversial issues, such as raising the retirement age, some political analysts say they are skeptical that Beijing will implement any bold new measures.

Lawmakers are also expected to discuss plans to increase Beijing’s control over the former British colony of Hong Kong, where officials have surrounded about 100 pro-democracy figures under a national security law since its enactment last year.

The annual sessions of the National People’s Congress, the Chinese legislature and a government advisory body of some 2,200 members are political scenarios in which the Communist Party elite portrays unity and outlines its priorities. Before the meeting, party officials conducted an advertising blitz, placing Xi as a central figure to put the nation on the path to prosperity.

State broadcaster Central China Television last month aired an eight-part documentary, “Shaking Off Poverty”, which chronicled Xi’s poverty reduction efforts over the past eight years. The party’s main newspaper, Diário do Povo, published a long article – covering about 23,000 characters on more than two full pages – that detailed Xi’s step-by-step involvement in the campaign.

The day after Mr. Xi declared a “complete victory” in China’s war on poverty at a televised awards ceremony last month, the People’s Daily dedicated almost all of its front page to a report on his comments. It featured a large image of Mr. Xi and a group photo showing him with about 200 people who accepted awards for achievements in poverty reduction and whose faces were too small to be seen clearly.

—Grace Zhu, from Beijing, contributed to this article.

Write to Chun Han Wong at [email protected]