The Cubs reportedly added another buy-low / reclamation starter to the group, joining Kohl Stewart and Shelby Miller: ex-pirates, Trevor Williams.
Evan Altman from CI with the report, later confirmed by Jesse Rogers:
Source: Former Pirates starter Trevor Williams has agreed to a major league deal with the Cubs, which is awaiting physical examinations. Had offers from several teams, the deal will likely include some deferred money.
– Evan Altman (@DEvanAltman) January 30, 2021
The Cubs are in a deal with pitcher Trevor Williams on a one-year contract, sources told ESPN.
Williams has spent his entire career with the Pirates. 31-37 in 94 career starts, 4.43 ERA.
– Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) January 30, 2021
Williams, 28, was released by the Pirates at the beginning of the off-season, instead of keeping him in arbitration. He’s been among the many options we discussed last week for the Cubs to target, and he’ll certainly be able to give you tickets (he’s been healthy). But the question is whether it can recover part of what made it so effective in 2017-18:
At first glance, it is not difficult to see some bad luck there, but you can also say that Williams is a command and control guy who has declared giving up walking a little more, and a lot more dingers. We will have to dig.
For now, see how Bryan structured the idea with what the Cubs could do for Williams:
Trevor Williams
What makes it unique? Among the 96 pitchers who launched 750 pitches in 2020, Williams had the 20th lowest launch height (5.5 feet). And among pitchers who have a low launch height (say, 5.75 feet or less), Williams had the sixth longest stretch. This combination is rare.
How did your last team not do a good job of emphasizing that? With the combination listed above, in general, you would ask a pitcher to throw his hard material into the zone, where the difference between his actual and perceived speed would play better against hitters. Williams did not do this enough with his four-seater fastball, as I see using the field marker in Baseball Savant:
Its 144 (approximately one third) Very high four-seater quick balls: 0.247 wOBA allowed, 29.7% smell
Your 148 lower four-seater quick balls: 0.486 wOBA allowed, 11.1% smell
How can Cubs emphasize this better? This is a flat face of Vertical Approach Angle, launching very often like a steep. We will cut the four low seamers, especially because in low pitches in the zone, we can go with a sinker with a vertical drop above the average.
In addition, I note that Williams has released only 99 curved balls in three years. We-the-puppies love curved balls, specifically the curve of the knuckles, the specialty of our suggestion lab. But maybe, just maybe, Williams himself discovered something in the past year alone? He launched 14 curved balls with more than 2,350 rpm in his career, and half of them came in September 2020. We will continue with that.
Williams may be the best bet among the group the Cubs were looking to give you 120 useful entries in 2021, although he has to be redone a little if he is going to give you more. I kind of love that possibility, given its relative youth and variety of pitches. There is a lot there for the Cubs to work on.
Light bonus? If the Cubs really like Williams this year, they can also keep him through arbitration until 2022.
In addition, Williams is very funny, as you will see.
Yes, we need to understand that the nature of these hires is: it is unlikely to be fantastic.
But the Little Lions are in a place where they both can AND have to take high risk and low probability photos. In that world, a guy like Williams (young, wide pitch mix, kind of funky) is great.
– Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) January 30, 2021
Elsewhere, the Cubs are still trying to add one more initial pitcher, probably in a minor league deal. Among the guys they’re looking at: Jake Arrieta, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Archer and Mike Foltynewicz. Indeed, any one of these four would be a great addition to a minor league deal if the Cubs succeed.
UPDATE: This is actually a pretty healthy guarantee – Rodon received $ 3 million – which makes me believe that the market for back-end beginners has really skyrocketed lately, presumably with greater confidence about the presence of fans:
The Trevor Williams Cubs deal is believed to be about $ 2.5 million
– Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 30, 2021
Altman later clarified, incidentally, that there may not be that much money, if any, delayed in the deal.
So, in the end, Williams gets half of what Jon Lester got at the Nationals, if you were comparing the two deals. For club intangibles, you would certainly prefer to have Lester. For the highest performance floor in 2021, you would probably also have Lester. On the positive side? Eh, I think Williams probably has a slightly better chance of being “good” in 2021 (and again, the Cubs get him for 2022 if they want to, too).