The new coronavirus variant first discovered in the United Kingdom may become the dominant strain in the United States in March, according to a new model from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC warned on Friday that variant B.1.1.7 is likely to spread rapidly across the United States in the coming months. So far, 76 cases have been identified in 10 U.S. states, but scientists warn that the actual number of B.1.1.7 cases is likely to be higher, as the US is behind many other countries with its genomic sequencing to identify variants .
The CDC is now trying to expand the sequencing to track the variant and other possible mutations.
According to the CDC model, the new strain is likely to outpace other variants of the disease and will dominate in March – although the trajectory of cases depends on the pace of vaccinations and other mitigation measures that people follow, such as wearing masks.
The United States has been hit much worse by Covid-19 than any other country. There were 3,915 deaths recorded in the United States on Thursday, according to the latest data from the Covid Tracking Project, bringing the total death toll to 379,451. Almost 129,000 people are currently hospitalized with the virus.
The CDC model found that if there were no vaccines and the spread of the virus continued to accelerate, the number of cases would continue to increase over the spring, peaking only in April.
Assuming the United States is able to vaccinate 1 million people a day, however, the number of new cases will drop slowly until at least May. If mitigation measures slow down the spread sufficiently for each infected person to infect an average of 0.9 others, the number of cases could drop by almost 85 percent by summer.
“Now, more than ever, it is important to reduce the spread,” warned the CDC.
Joe Biden, the elected president of the United States, gave more details about his plans to respond to the coronavirus pandemic on Friday, as he prepares to take office next week, with deaths and hospitalizations from the outbreak in the United States near record levels. He promised to oversee 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days.
The plan includes new rules that would allow retired medical professionals to administer doses as part of an effort to increase the number of people who get vaccines. It would also use members of the National Guard to help deliver the vaccine and train people how to administer it, although it does not go so far as to ask troops to inject themselves, as requested by a health professional this week.
Biden also pledged to use the Defense Production Act, which states that the government can force companies to produce certain items, to solve bottlenecks in the manufacturing process, such as the lack of glass bottles.
The president-elect appointed new members to his coronavirus task force on Friday morning, including David Kessler, a former head of the Food and Drug Administration, who will lead the new government’s efforts to distribute vaccines.
As the task force’s chief scientific adviser, Dr. Kessler will help lead Operation Warp Speed, the federal government’s vaccine distribution program. He will replace Moncef Slaoui, the former executive of GlaxoSmithKline.
Dr. Kessler led the FDA from 1990 to 1997, under Presidents George HW Bush and Bill Clinton.
Mr. Biden said in a statement: “We are in a race against time and we need a comprehensive strategy to quickly contain this virus.”