Countries in Europe that quickly implemented stringent measures to control the spread of the new coronavirus had lower mortality rates until June 2020 than those that subsequently imposed such policies, according to a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The study, published on Wednesday, is the latest wave of an ongoing debate between researchers and public health officials about which containment measures are effective and when they should be implemented. The question is not easy to answer: every analysis contains assumptions and it can be difficult to compare one state or country with another.
The CDC’s analysis involves data from 37 countries that have instituted measures such as closing non-essential deals, canceling public events, closing schools, restricting the size of meetings and asking people to stay at home. Countries differ on how many of these measures they have implemented and when.
To assess how rigorously countries have tried to control the spread of the virus, CDC researchers used the Oxford Stringency Index, which includes nine policies that prevent the spread of the virus. The index is weighted to take into account the rigor of each policy, such as closing deals or limiting the size of meetings.
Strict measures have prevented thousands of deaths, despite the severe costs of unemployment and social isolation, the study concluded. In 26 countries, more than 70,000 deaths could have been prevented if the most stringent measures had been implemented when the pandemic started.
Most preventable deaths occurred in the United Kingdom, France and Spain.