CDC predicts 100,000 COVID deaths in the coming weeks

By Madeline Holcombe | CNN

The United States can face up to 100,000 deaths from Covid-19 in less than a month, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The country reported more than 4,000 Covid-19 deaths on Wednesday, just the third day to cross that threshold, bringing the death toll to at least 406,001 people, according to Johns Hopkins University tracking data.

And by February 13, that number could reach 508,000, according to a set forecast published by the CDC. The latest forecast, on January 13, projected up to 477,000 deaths by February 6.

The overall CDC forecast comes as the United States marks a year on Thursday since the first Covid-19 patient was identified in the U.S. – a number that has since increased to more than 24.4 million, according to Johns Hopkins.

While the United States is far from out of danger, CNN’s analysis of Johns Hopkins data shows slight declines in new daily cases.

New cases fell 21% from last week, the biggest drop week after week since the start of the pandemic. On Wednesday, the average number of new cases in the past seven days remained high at 194,252 – but that marked a drop below the 200,000-a-day average that the country has seen consistently for weeks.

As of Thursday morning, 43 states were reporting reductions in new Covid-19 cases of more than 10% compared to last week, according to CNN’s analysis.

Six states – Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, South Carolina, Texas and Vermont – have remained stable compared to the previous week. Only Virginia showed an upward trend in cases above 10% compared to last week.

And according to data from the COVID Tracking Project, the US has had a 9.81% positivity rate in the past seven days, falling below the 10% threshold for the first time since late November.

Biden team faces Covid-19

President Joe Biden is taking steps to recalibrate the country’s response to the virus, with an emphasis on distributing the vaccine. There are still significant challenges with vaccine supply across the country, according to state officials. And sources tell CNN that Biden and his advisers are not inheriting any plans to distribute the coronavirus vaccine from the Trump administration.

CDC’s new director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, told NBC News on Thursday that the agency was working with federal government Operation Warp Speed, vaccine manufacturers and the states to understand supply problems.

But in the meantime, “now, I think we still have the vaccine on the shelves that we need to put on people,” she said. Federal officials are considering a “diversified” deployment plan, she said, involving community vaccination centers, stadiums and mobile units to bring vaccines to everyone across the country.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease specialist and Biden’s top medical advisor, said the United States can achieve the president’s goal of 100 million injections in 100 days – and may even be able to overcome it ”.

“The president made it his top priority,” Fauci told ABC’s “Good Morning America”, adding that he would meet Biden later on Thursday to inform him about Covid-19 and the distribution of the vaccine.

“As he said, he will do whatever it takes to ensure that we have a successful distribution of the vaccines, put them in people’s arms and vaccinate as many people as possible,” said Fauci.

Biden also announced that the United States would become part of the World Health Organization again, a move that Fauci said was important for an effective global response.

“The official announcement that we are going back, we are going to meet our financial commitments and a lot of other things, was really a very good day,” said Fauci. “The response I’m getting from my colleagues around the world is really, really, really invigorating.”

Deaths in California and severity of cases remain high

Most coronavirus metrics have improved in California, an epicenter of the virus in the United States. But the seriousness of the cases in the state and the death toll remain high.

California added 22,403 new cases on Wednesday, which is well below the state’s average daily number of 38,000.

But it also reported 694 new Covid-19-related deaths on Wednesday, the second highest number of deaths in a single day so far. The previous high of 708 was recorded almost two weeks ago.

In Los Angeles, the death rate among patients hospitalized with Covid-19 has almost doubled in recent months.

Since November, patients hospitalized in Los Angeles County have had about a 23% chance of dying from the disease, health officials said on Wednesday. That rate marks a significant increase from the previous three months, when Covid-19 patients had an approximately 12% chance of dying, according to the county’s Department of Health Services.

Along with the death rate, the length of hospital stay for coronavirus in Los Angeles County jumped from about seven days between September and November to about nine and a half from November to January, suggesting that the severity of the disease in hospitalized people has increased, told LADHS.

“This trend does not mean that the virus has become more virulent or that hospital care has worsened during the sudden increase,” explained director of health services Christina Ghaly. “Instead, we believe that these trends occur because hospitals, facing capacity constraints in the context of the sudden increase, have become more selective in determining which patients to admit.

“In other words, hospitals are sending more low-acuity patients home with oxygen. They are admitting only the most seriously ill patients. “

But with a limited supply of the coronavirus vaccine, state epidemiologist Erica Pan said it could take four to five months to vaccinate all Californians over 65.

‘A constant pattern of basically running out of vaccine’

The pressure to vaccinate people grew as authorities rushed to distribute doses to meet demand.

On Wednesday, more than 16.5 million doses were administered in the United States and nearly 2.2 million Americans are fully vaccinated, said the CDC.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state is administering about 65,000 doses a day – a rate that will exhaust its current supply in two or three days. “What is clear now is that we will be going from week to week and you will see a constant pattern of basically running out, waiting for next week’s allocation and then starting again,” said Cuomo.

The state will receive 250,400 doses next week, but Cuomo asked Biden to increase supplies to the states immediately.