A lot has changed in Poblenou in the past four years – not just the arrival of a pandemic that has devastated tourism and employment – but the people of the traditional working class district in northern Barcelona they are struggling with a persistent sense of déjà vu over Sunday’s regional elections.
“We only talk about independence, but what most of us want from politicians is to solve social problems,” says Nuria Vallejo, a doctor who works in the public sector and has lived in the neighborhood for 20 years. “Number one is the health crisis, and then there is the education system and sustainability issues.”
Poblenou, once the heart of the city’s textile industry that prided itself on the nickname “little Manchester”, is now reinventing itself as a hub for technology companies.
But, like much of the Catalan capital, the area is currently facing the double storm of the pandemic and the accompanying economic consequences.
If more uncertainty is needed, it came in the form of the election, which once again pits unionists against separatists as the decades-long dispute over Catalan independence goes from low to high.
Three and a half years ago, the pro-independence Catalan regional government, led by Carles Puigdemont, defied repeated warnings from the Spanish government and the courts by holding a unilateral and illegal independence referendum.
The vote was hampered by a violent and violent response from police officers sent to the region by the Spanish government to prevent the vote. Three weeks later, pro-independence members of the Catalan parliament made a unilateral declaration of independence, prompting the Spanish government to use the constitution to take direct control of the region, dismiss Puigdemont and his government and call for regional elections for December 2017. Puigdemont fled to Belgium to avoid arrest, but nine of the others involved were arrested for their role in the failed attempt at independence.
Despite the violence sparked by the 2019 verdict, the issue of Catalan independence has disappeared in the past two years amid growing divisions between separatist factions.
The polls this time suggest a fierce dispute for first place in the region between the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which opposes independence, the pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the equally separatist Party Together for Catalonia.
The election may also see the far-right Vox party overtaking its conservative rivals to win its first seats in the regional parliament.
However, if there is one thing that residents agree with, it is that they are not getting very excited about any of the candidates offered and have little faith in their ability to solve the problems they face.
“The poor quality of politicians in this country is really worrying,” says Pere Nieto, a 53-year-old primary school teacher and a lifelong resident of Poblenou. “The fundamental issue has to be the management of public services, especially health and education and housing”, adds Nieto. “But the debate is about sovereignty.”
Albert Valencia, 24, opposed Catalan independence until October 1, 2017, when the brutal and heavy response of the Spanish state to the unilateral referendum staged by the pro-independence government shocked the country and the rest of the world. Although the events of that day changed his mind, Valencia sees little prospect of independence for the region any time soon.
“There was never really a plan,” he says. “We were led to believe that all we had to do was vote in the referendum, but it is not so simple. We were all a little naive. Nor do the pro-independence parties in this election have a plan. “
Salvador Illa, who stepped down as Spain’s Minister of Health to run as a PSC candidate for the presidency, promised to do his best to heal the divided region if he wins – or, as he says, “sew Catalonia back”.
But even if the PSC arrives first, the formation of the discussed left-wing tripartite government seems increasingly like an unreal dream. We are unlikely to get enough seats at the local branch of the ERC while the ERC joined other pro-independence parties by signing a pledge not to help the Socialists take office.
The main issue, predictably, is independence, which continues to divide the region and its politicians. A recent survey found that 47.7% of Catalans are against independence and 44.5% for.
But José Pablo Ferrándiz, chief researcher at the research firm Metroscopia, says independence is a less pressing concern for most voters. “When we asked what the new regional government’s priorities should be, only a third said it had to be Catalonia’s independence process – and that was really more between Together for Catalonia and [anti-capitalist] Cup voters than ERC voters – so there are divisions within the independence movement, ”he says.
“The main concerns of voters – pro-independence and anti-independence – are the economic situation and the management of the pandemic. They cut off voting groups. This time, independence is a totally secondary issue. “
Even so, it remains at the top of the political agenda of the pro-independence parties. The ERC, which favors a moderate and gradual approach to independence, once again buried its differences with Juntos pela Catalunya, whose strategy has been to confront and maintain tensions with the central government to keep the issue on the national and international radar and keep your followers.
One of the deciding factors in Sunday’s election will be attendance. Some union voters are likely to stay home on the assumption that independence is not the burning issue it was four years ago, while others may be reluctant to leave home to vote because of Covid. Pro-independence voters, on the other hand, tend to attend in large numbers.
Another important factor will be the continued decline of the center-right Citizens party.
The 2017 election, called by the then conservative government after taking control of Catalonia after the unilateral declaration of independence, was a triumph for citizens.
The party’s clear and tough opposition to the separatist maneuver paid off, with citizens winning the largest number of seats, but unable to get the support needed to form a government in Catalonia, leaving the region in the hands of the pro-independence parties.
Today, Citizens is a shadow of what it was. His move to the right – and the decision to oppose the vote of no confidence that propelled the Socialists to the national government amid public fury over the corruption scandals that involved the previous administration of the Conservative People’s Party (PP) – was costly.
The question now is where will your voters go. As Berta Barbet, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, points out, “the anti-independence movement has a new party – Vox.”
The far-right party, the third largest in the national parliament, could benefit from disaffected Citizens’ supporters, as well as scandals that continue to harass their right-wing rivals. Earlier this week, former Popular Party (PP) treasurer Luis Bárcenas appeared in court as part of another corruption trial related to the party’s illegal finances.
“A large party that wants to govern Spain cannot afford to do very poorly in a region as important as Catalonia,” says Ferrándiz. But he also points out that while Vox is in the process of entering the Catalan parliament for the first time – and may even exceed the PP – everything is relative.
“Vox is not going to do that well either, but it will undoubtedly sell the seats won in Catalonia and overtake the PP as a major victory.”
The overall picture is more difficult to predict. Pro-independence parties could once again retain their majority, or socialists could break.
“[But] the numbers show that it would be very difficult for Illa to become president, ”says Barbet. “Even if they end up winning a majority of the votes, the price that the PSC will pay for it is eroding the bases of possible coalition partners and forming a government would be complicated.”
Even if the votes are counted quickly, she adds, “business can take much longer.” This horse trading is nothing new in Spanish or Catalan politics.
But the fact that nine parties are contesting Sunday’s elections perhaps points to a continuing unease among voters that first manifested itself a few years ago with the eruption of Can and Citizens – an evil that was exacerbated by the pandemic. .
“We are in a period of collapse and, as a society, we have to learn to survive and I don’t think that political parties are able to solve these problems”, says Albert Valencia.
“We need to take them out and find ways to help each other.”