Two NFC teams started the 2021 quarterback carousel before the Super Bowl LV, thanks to the exchange of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff’s blockbuster with Lions and Rams. A third NFC team – and another big name in the QB business – may not be far behind. While many believed the Eagles hired new coach Nick Sirianni in large part to restore former MVP contender Carson Wentz, the NFL Network reported on Thursday that Philadelphia had begun hearing offers for its supposedly dissatisfied caller.
There is a chance that the Eagles will never receive the offer they want and accept an awkward and confused return from Wentz in 2021. There is also an argument that Philly should not buy QB, with the option of reviewing a succession plan in 2022. But as some have speculated that leaks of team calls in the field are unlikely to surface if substantive business negotiations are not yet underway and / or Wentz is not fully committed to forcing the Eagles apart. Les Bowen from Philly.com threw fuel on the fire on Friday, citing an NFL source who believes a Wentz exchange is “close”, while ESPN’s Tim McManus reported that the team has already received some “aggressive offers”.
A day later, ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested that Wentz would prefer to start again somewhere else, but he will not be moved unless the Eagles receive what they consider “fair value”, the big question revolves around just that: fair value. What is it, in the case of Wentz?
Wentz’s projected business value
Unlike Stafford, who struck a mutual agreement with Detroit to find a new home and has a longer and more proven track record, Wentz is a bit of an enigma. His regression in 2020 was historic for a team that is now in complete transition, and his $ 128 million contract is just as scary as the one Rams unloaded with Goff. But he is also only 28, with four good – and occasionally great – other seasons on his resume. Then again, he’s just one of, oh, a dozen different established newbies that could be available in an unprecedented QB market.
Schefter estimated this week that the Eagles are likely to want a minimum of a choice in the first round draft in exchange for Wentz. This would be ideal, both optically and from the point of view of creating lists, for them. But it seems terribly unlikely, unless the Eagles are making a choice of their own. Wentz was always a superior talent compared to Goff, whose big contract required the Rams to pay more than expected to acquire Stafford, but only because the Eagles do not pay anyone to accept Wentz’s business in a similar way (and keep our words) : they will not) does not mean that your market is exploding at the seams.
In the wake of the unexpected Goff-Stafford agreement, creativity is probably the key here. If the Eagles really move Wentz, there is a good chance that it is not an exchange for traditionally structured things. It may involve several choices on both sides, or one or two players as well. But if you’re looking for a potential reference, the closest recent comparisons to Wentz – in general terms of age, experience, advantages and contractual status – appear to be Kevin Kolb, who was traded by the Eagles to the Cardinals in 2011; and Alex Smith, who traded from the 49ers to the Chiefs in 2013.
If it’s not obvious to you yet, these are flawed comparisons. Wentz is neither Kolb nor Smith; all three have or have had very different careers and playing styles. But it is not easy to find many examples of similarly established QB trading – NFL teams tend to prefer to retain or rebuild young callers, not switch them! Here’s a look:
QB: Kevin kolb
Exchanged by: Second round draft choice, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Kolb was 26 at the time of his trade, two years younger than Wentz and had a surprisingly comparable contract; he joined Arizona just a year away for a $ 12.25 million span, which would make him the NFL’s tenth best-paid football player that season. (Wentz would cost an acquiring team $ 25.4 million in 2021, or the 12th highest QB limit reached, but could be reduced to a savings of $ 6.7 million in 2022, or $ 19 million in 2023). Kolb was much more of a stranger, leaving Philly with just seven career starts, but he had just lost his job to Michael Vick, in part due to an injury.
QB: Alex Smith
Exchanged by: Second round draft choice, conditional choice (second round)
Smith was 29 at the time of his switch, just a year older than Wentz, and likewise had a history of injuries several years after joining the first round. His limit reached in 2013, when it was traded, was significantly lower – $ 8.5 million, or the 16th highest among QBs – but he had also just lost his job to a younger double threat in Colin Kaepernick. He started 75 games to that point, not far from Wentz’s 68.
Kolb was sold as a developing piece, while Smith was sold as a recovery project. The Eagles could sell Wentz as an intermediary. Anyway, the compensation here is fundamental: getting something like a choice of draft of the second round, plus a secondary asset, as another choice or possible beginner, looks like a realistic ceiling for a change in this off season. If the team is convinced that it is not enough, perhaps Wentz will be back. But the floor could easily be much lower: it is fair to expect that some offers, based on other available QBs, as well as Wentz’s regression in the past two years, look more a single intermediary.
“Its value will depend on the number of serious suitors,” said Joel Corry, a CBS Sports contributor and former agent and capitalization expert. “I can’t imagine Philly doing a Brock Osweiler salary eviction. Nick Foles went to Chicago for a compensatory choice in the fourth round. Philly will want more. Personally, I wouldn’t give up on a choice in the first or second round based on regression. this season. The best bet may be a 2022 conditional choice, which can be elevated to a first round choice based on the performance of Wentz and / or the acquiring team in 2021. “
Probable landing sites
General plans:
- Carolina Panthers: They’re in the market for a veteran update, but going from Teddy Bridgewater to Wentz may not be meaningful enough when Carolina can simply opt for a cheaper upside in the draft.
- Las Vegas Raiders: As solid as expendable Derek Carr has been, Jon Gruden is more likely to try a veteran successor in QB than the draft, and both he and general manager Mike Mayock, a native of Philly, are big fans of Wentz.
- New York Jets: Former Eagles executive Joe Douglas knows Wentz well from his time in Philadelphia, and the Jets have plenty of room to absorb their business, but why wouldn’t they rather have their own guy in the draft?
- San Francisco 49ers: Like Carolina, they are looking for a better veteran arm, and Wentz’s athleticism would certainly intrigue Kyle Shanahan, although it is difficult to say that he would be an easy salesman about Jimmy Garoppolo.
- Washington Football Team: They’ll probably call all the available QBs and, although the Eagles have already renamed a franchise to Washington (see: McNabb, Donovan), they don’t want to see him fix his career playing against them twice a year.
Favorites:
- Chicago Bears: A Nick Foles reunion would close Wentz’s dramatic career, but we already know that the Bears are hungry for a new QB, and they have a GM in Ryan Pace who longed for Wentz before and the former QB coach of 2017.
- Denver Broncos: If John Elway still had the final say on the squad, that could be even more likely, but Denver is perpetually a hot spot for acquisitions of QB veterans, and there is already enough youth and defense to warrant a bet.
- Indianapolis Colts: The attack that was beaten to death, Indy checks all the boxes now that Stafford is out of the picture: They are loaded with cash, they are not prepared to get a top newbie QB and they are ready to compete under Wentz now former offensive coordinator in Frank Reich, allegedly one of the QB’s most trusted NFL mentors. This helps Indy to be a more relaxed market.
- New England Patriots: Bill Belichick is never intimidated by big name recovery projects, the Pats desperately need a potential long-term solution and have money to rock a lot, and Eagles GM Howie Roseman negotiates a ton with New England.