Los Angeles Rams Darrell Henderson (27) running back frees himself for a touchdown while Arizona Cardinals cornerback Byron Murphy (33) chases during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, December 6, 2020, in Glendale, Arizona. (AP Photo / Rick Scuteri)
Win and they enter.
The Arizona Cardinals dug a hole on Saturday by losing to the San Francisco 49ers and putting their playoff hopes in the hands of others. But after Sunday’s games, it’s back to a simple formula.
All they need to do to make it to the NFL playoffs is to win next Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams to overcome the 9-6 division rival.
An Arizona victory (8-7) would tie the two teams with 9-7 records to end the regular season. By dividing their games face to face, the Cardinals will have the tiebreaker with a best record from the West division of the NFC.
Arizona would be the sixth seed if they win and the Chicago Bears fall to the Green Bay Packers in week 17. The Cardinals would be the seventh seed if they win and the Bears also win because Chicago has a tie over Arizona.
What are the chances that the Cardinals will beat the Rams to reach the playoffs?
Here are the latest projections from ESPN, FiveThirtyEight and Las Vegas after Rams quarterback Jared Goff was dropped due to a thumb injury sustained last week.
It is hoped that these numbers will be able to adjust again when there is more clarity about the situation for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who is recovering from a leg injury.
ESPN
As of Monday morning, Arizona had a 40.7% chance of winning the Rams, according to the Football Power Index (FPI).
Those chances on Tuesday morning actually dropped to 37.4% after the Monday Night Football game between Bills and Patriots – we’re guessing why a 38-9 victory for Buffalo had the formula to judge Arizona’s loss to Nova England harder.
The FPI counts the quarterback’s absences. Goff’s reserve, John Wolford, only has the pre-season games from last season that are worth limited action, and considering how poorly Goff has been playing lately, well, maybe that is taken into account in the Cardinals’ diminishing odds too.
FiveThirtyEight
Compared to ESPN, the site was already more in favor of the Cardinals’ chances of victory on the road, giving them a 49% chance of beating the Rams on Monday.
On Tuesday, Arizona got a 6% increase to make him a slight favorite with a 55% chance of reaching the postseason after a victory.
Odds
The Las Vegas line in the game opened in favor of Los Angeles by -4 to -5 and had not yet been updated after Goff was dropped by the Rams.
Murray’s availability is likely to have some bearing on the game’s final chances.
