WASHINGTON – As a candidate, President Biden left no doubt about what he thought about how the United States should deal with Saudi Arabia.
His plan, he said, was to get the Saudis to “pay the price and actually make them the outcasts they are”. Biden was equally outspoken about the Saudi royal family. There is “very little value for social redemption in the current Saudi Arabian government,” he said.
Now, as president, Biden must deal with that government, whether it has redemptive value or not. And he must navigate a series of campaign promises to cut arms shipments and make public the conclusions of American intelligence on the role of Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and the country’s de facto leader, in the death of the dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
That process seems likely to begin this week, when Biden plans to hold his first conversation with the sick King Salman. And while the call is full of diplomatic pleasantries, officials say, the real aim is to warn you that the intelligence report will be disqualified and published. The White House would say little about the carefully sequenced set of events, unless no conversation between the two men had been scheduled – although clearly one was underway.
“The president’s intention, as well as this government’s intention, is to recalibrate our commitment to Saudi Arabia,” Jen Psaki, White House press secretary, told reporters on Wednesday.
While the Trump administration has dealt extensively with the Crown Prince – who was often in contact with Jared Kushner, son-in-law and adviser to former President Donald J. Trump – Biden is taking the position that King Salman is still the country’s leader, and the only one with whom he will speak directly. As the Crown Prince serves as defense minister, he was instructed to communicate with defense secretary Lloyd J. Austin III.
But the protocol issue is less important than the sudden change in the way the Saudis are being treated.
Almost three weeks ago, at the State Department, Biden ordered an end to arms sales and other support to the Saudis for a war in Yemen, which he called a “humanitarian and strategic catastrophe”. American defensive weapons will continue to flow, primarily to protect against Iranian missiles and drones, but Biden was delivering on the campaign promise to end the Trump era’s practice of forgiving Saudi human rights violations in order to preserve jobs in the American weapons industry.
For the government to go directly after Prince Mohammed, the king’s son, workaholic and ruthless, known as MBS, is a totally different kind of problem. The content of the assessment, written primarily by the CIA, is no mystery: in November 2018, The New York Times reported that intelligence officials had concluded that the Crown Prince ordered the death of Khashoggi, who was drugged and quartered in Saudi Arabia Consulate in Istanbul.
The agency reinforced the conclusion with two sets of communications: interception of calls from the Crown Prince in the days before the murder and calls from the death squad to a senior adviser to the Crown Prince.
The Trump administration issued sanctions against 17 Saudis involved in the killing. But the government never publicized the findings – even removing the sources and methods – and avoided questions about Prince Mohammed. Senior Trump officials were often angry when asked about their commitment to follow the evidence. They often asked in return whether the United States should abandon a major alliance because of the death of a single dissident and journalist.
Biden’s view was the opposite. Now, Saudi officials are trying to find out whether the new president intends to isolate the future Saudi ruler – and will try to prevent him from becoming the country’s leader – by imposing sanctions on him and leaving him open to criminal prosecution.
“I certainly wouldn’t say that your concerns or opinions have changed,” said Psaki when pressed about Biden’s characterization of Saudi Arabia as an “outcast” state. However, it seems unlikely that this term will be used in the diplomatic reading that the government will provide after the call.
The big question is what action Mr. Biden decides to take against the Crown Prince.
“I hope your message is that we have to sanction MBS with the same sanction that we imposed on the other 17 Saudi accomplices in this murder,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now, an organization that Khashoggi started. “A travel ban and an asset freeze. Anything less will seem like we’re giving him special treatment and undermining the sanctions we’ve imposed. “
“Even the Trump administration was forced to act” against the other 17, Whitson said.
“The message for the Saudis has to be to get rid of this guy,” she said.