Canada’s Trudeau pushes politics to the left amid covid pandemic

Now he is shifting his agenda to a higher gear, marking one of the biggest left movements in Canadian federal politics since the mid-1960s, say political analysts and historians, when the liberal government of the time introduced the universal health care system and a national pension plan.

“We can choose to embrace bold new solutions to the challenges we face and refuse to be held back by old ways of thinking,” said Trudeau in August, when he started making promises about a broader social safety net and a more aggressive political environment. . “This is our chance to build a more resilient Canada.”

He appointed a new finance minister, Chrystia Freeland – who led Canada’s negotiations with the Trump administration over a revamped US free trade pact – to oversee the development of this new policy roadmap.

The polls indicate that there is an appetite among voters – shaken by the consequences of the pandemic – for an interventionist government and with large expenditures.

“Canadians are feeling very insecure now,” said David Coletto, chief executive of Abacus Data, an Ottawa-based research firm. “There was already a prevalent view – both on the right and on the left – that those with access to resources were doing much better than those struggling to keep their heads above water. This was only confirmed last year. “

Other analysts say Trudeau’s impetus may receive impetus from the Biden government, given the US president’s similar agenda focused on the environment and social programs. Mr. Trudeau was the first world leader that Biden called when he moved to the Oval Office.

President Biden and Mr. Trudeau “clearly share a vision,” said Stewart Perst, professor of politics at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, British Columbia. “They can also reinforce each other, especially on the world stage.” To be sure, there will be differences and setbacks, such as President Biden’s decision to halt construction on the Keystone XL gas pipeline extension.

The Trudeau administration has spent aggressively to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, with Canada’s budget balance in 2020 deteriorating to the maximum among major developed and emerging economies on an adjusted basis. The deficit is on track to reach a record 18% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ended March 31. The bulk of the money went to families and businesses.

Mr Trudeau said that more government stimulus is on the way, about 5% of gross domestic product, to initiate a recovery and rebuild and extend a social safety net that aims at additional daycare centers, better care for the elderly, and a national plan to help subsidize drug costs.

“We don’t intend to just go back to where we were before Covid-19,” Freeland, who is also a deputy prime minister, told reporters last week. “The pandemic exposed critical gaps in our social safety net. And the virus hit certain sectors, certain groups of people, with more force than others – the elderly, women, low-income workers, young people, people of color, indigenous people ”.

But the momentum is also causing concern. Robert Asselin, a former adviser to the Trudeau government, points out that costs are pushing the budget deficit to half a trillion Canadian dollars, or the equivalent of $ 390 billion, and said the government has no focus when it comes to generating growth. long-term economic growth.

“I find that a little worrying. It’s mainly about wealth redistribution, ”said Asselin, now senior vice president of Canada’s Business Council, a lobby group that represents the country’s top executives. The approach of the next Biden government, by comparison, is also moving the political agenda to the left, but it has detailed strategies designed to boost growth in certain sectors of the economy, he said.

Among the tasks that Trudeau has entrusted to Finance Minister Freeland, according to a letter released by Trudeau’s office describing his mandate, is the introduction of new taxes aimed at “extreme wealth”. Prior to politics, Ms. Freeland was a journalist and wrote a book about the world’s wealthy elite and income inequality.

The Trudeau government’s measures come at a time of great expectation that Trudeau will seek an election as early as spring, to capitalize on solid public support for his response to the pandemic and to try to replace his minority government for a majority mandate.

Trudeau returned to power in the fall of 2019 with a minority mandate, punished in part because of a scandal over the role of his office in an attempt to intervene in the lawsuit against a Montreal-based engineering company. Although Canadian electoral laws indicate that the next vote is scheduled for October 2023, the prime minister has the authority to dissolve parliament and start an election at his request.

Trudeau’s calculation that Canadians want more government seems to be paying off. Surveys by Abacus Data and other public opinion firms generally indicate that Trudeau’s liberals maintain a stable lead over their biggest rival, the Conservative Party, as most Canadians approve of their government’s response to fighting the pandemic.

The Liberal Party of Canada has been the dominant force in Canadian politics for more than 150 years in the country’s history, in part because of its ability to gauge public mood and move the political agenda as appropriate, say political analysts. For example, liberals in the 1990s ruled largely on the right, cutting spending on government programs to deal with budget problems and cutting taxes to ward off conservative opponents.

Kathy Brock, a political scientist at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said the move to Trudeau’s left – which also includes more aggressive measures to combat climate change, such as a proposed sharp increase in the carbon tax – aims to persuade progressive voters who park their votes with the leftist New Democratic Party or elsewhere. In the last federal election in 2019, about a third of voters voted for progressive parties, while two thirds voted for the Liberal or Conservative Party.

Trudeau downplayed talks about an election, arguing that his focus is on the pandemic and overseeing a vaccination implementation.

Brock said the signs point to a vote in the spring, but that it can be reversed, especially if vaccination implementation in Canada faces further delays and falls far behind the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries of the Group of Seven.

A survey published on Friday by the Angus Reid Institute indicated that public approval of the government’s vaccine distribution plan fell sharply in January to 45%, from 58% in the previous month. Still, Shachi Kurl, the institute’s president, said that frustration with the vaccination has not yet weighed in on Trudeau’s popularity.

Write to Paul Vieira at [email protected]