Editor’s note: This game guide was published ahead of the scheduled South Carolina and Tennessee showdown on Tuesday, February 16 at 8:30 pm ET. That game was later postponed to Wednesday, February 17 at 9:00 pm ET. The betting analysis in this document may be subject to update depending on the betting market’s response to this 24-hour postponement.
Tennessee has struggled to gain consistency throughout the season, alternating big wins with painful losses.
After a home loss at the start of the season to Alabama, the Volunteers had three consecutive wins before suffering consecutive losses in Florida and home to Missouri. Volunteers suffered additional road losses in Mississippi and LSU, dropping to fifth place in the SEC with just 7-5.
South Carolina suffered a one-month COVID-19 break in December, interrupting its entire season. The Gamecocks are now in a three-game losing streak and are going to Knoxville with injuries from two starters.
Can Volunteers cover a large double-digit line at home, or can Frank Martin make his Gamecocks face a superior opponent?
The Matchup
South Carolina will enter this game with few players, potentially less than two matches. Second year student Jermaine Couisnard (9.7 PPG) left the last game with an ankle injury and did not return. Junior Justin Minaya (8.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) left with a head injury in the last minute of the game. The status of both players is unknown, making a road game in Tennessee even more challenging.
Gamecocks rely heavily on juniors AJ Lawson (17.9 PPG) and Keyshawn Bryant (14.1 PPG) for most of their attack. In addition to Couisnard and Minaya, the rest of the squad consists of players who average five points per game.
Coach Frank Martin did a great job preparing his team against superior opponents. Gamecocks provided strong performances and covered the gap at LSU, Florida and at home against Alabama.
Martin’s fundamental belief in defending pressure led South Carolina to the highest defensive turnover rate in the SEC game. He is directly ahead of Tennessee and has forced 20 or more turnovers in each of the last three games.
Although Gamecocks have offensive metrics below average, they remained competitive with offensive rebounds. South Carolina is also the first in a conference game in percentage of offensive rebounds, led by 2.93 Minaya offensive bags per game.
The fights come from the field, where South Carolina throws only 31.3% of 3 and 48.5% of 2 in the SEC competition. Gamecocks are also a poor free-kick team, ranking 319th in the country, with 65.1%.
Tennessee fights in attack, but is a defensive elite. It ranks third overall in adjusted defensive efficiency, for KenPom, keeping opponents below 30% in the 3-point range and only 46.4% from within the arc.
With the exception of the last victory against Georgia (a game that led 44-26 at halftime), the Volunteers kept their three opponents prior to 61 points or less in the Thompson-Boling Arena. If Couisnard, Minaya or both cannot play in this game, South Carolina is unlikely to break the 60-point threshold.
Tennessee is led by freshman Jaden Springer (12.2 PPG). The 6-foot-4 guard has exploded in the last three games, averaging 24.7 PPG against Kentucky, Georgia and LSU. The volunteers are 10-1 this season, when Springer scores double figures. Keon Johnson (10.1 PPG), John Fulkerson (9.7 PPG) and Victor Bailey Jr. (9.6 PPG) complete a balanced scoring attack.
The general floor of the Volunteers’ attack is the second year Santiago Vescovi (9.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 39.6% 3P). He helped solidify Tennessee’s scoring attack with 16 PPG in the last two competitions.
Tennessee’s breadth and versatility will stop South Carolina’s attack. Yves Pons, Springer and sophomore Josiah-Jordan James averaged more than 1.2 steals per game. Pons and James also average more than 1.1 blocks per game.
Coming from a bad 78-65 defeat at LSU, I expect the best effort from the Volunteers at home against an inferior opponent.
Analysis and choice of bets
I’m assuming that Couisnard is out and is going to establish 10 points with Tennessee. If Minaya is also discarded, Gamecocks will be severely short-handed.
Look to South Carolina to slow this game down, hoping to limit possessions and increase offensive variance. With Tennessee’s stifling defense, Volunteers will be very comfortable at this rate.
With Vescovi’s increasing attack, Springer and Johnson’s versatility and Pons and James’s length, this must be a dominant victory in Tennessee at home. Coach Rick Barnes will have his team motivated after the defeat at Baton Rouge, and should join Gamecocks sooner.
I can’t see South Carolina scoring consistently without Couisnard and possibly Minaya, and Pons’ top defense will handcuff Lawson.
Support the volunteers to cover the big line for a critical domestic SEC victory. I am also betting the under on a total of the game that should rise closer to the complaint.
To choose: Tennessee -10 (up to -11). | Less than 141.5 (up to 141).