The Covid-19 pandemic hit some public transport systems hard.
The number of passengers on the New York MTA and the London Underground system initially fell by about 95 percent, and has since recovered to just a third of last year’s levels. And although those numbers have recovered, the number of passengers is likely to be lower in the short to medium term.
But that is not what concerns the experts. With cities around the world facing financial problems due to the economic impact of the pandemic, governments can try to cut funding as the number of passengers has declined. This can create what some have dubbed the “death spiral” – a cycle of precarious services and even fewer passengers.
“I have absolutely no doubt that the demand will be less than it was before Covid,” said Greg Marsden, professor of transportation governance at the University of Leeds in Britain. “It will be less because we are entering a massive recession and because people have adapted their behavior. “
“What really matters is how we manage the transition,” he added. “If we get it wrong, it will be very difficult to bring public transport services back after they disappear.”
The coming years will be critical, as it will become clearer how many people will continue to work from home or use private transportation, and as governments are pressured to make spending cuts that could harm transportation systems in the years to come.
“As we move into the 2021, 2022 period, when governments will have less money and begin to question their public spending priorities, this is where the danger zone lies,” said Richard Anderson, co-director of the Transportation Strategy for the Imperial College London Center.
Public transport is rarely profitable, but it is essential to the success of big cities, Anderson said, comparing reduced government spending with transportation to “killing the goose that lays the golden eggs”.
Lessons from Asia
Transport networks in countries where infections have remained relatively low – such as Taiwan and South Korea – can offer clues about the shape of post-Covid traffic and tips on how to attract cautious passengers back.
The drop in revenue is unlikely to be sustainable for most networks, as Covid-19 vaccines will take months to implement and even more so that restrictions are eased.
Meanwhile, Taipei Metro, whose October traffic was only about 15 percent less than in 2019, launched a high-level hygiene campaign, hired hundreds of employees and mobilized volunteers to check the body temperature of passengers in turnstiles.
In Seoul, transport authorities made congestion levels available online for passengers to plan their trips to avoid crowds and, through an app, made it possible to report passengers who do not wear masks.
But there are limits to comparing Asia’s experience with other regions. Their cities are generally densely populated, making alternatives to public transportation difficult (such as driving to work or working from home). The continent has also experienced other pandemics in recent years, such as SARS, and is most used to mask wear and tear and social detachment.
Emotional appeal
In the West, it is not yet clear how many passengers will eventually return to public transport. A French survey in September pointed to 69%, while another survey of Americans in the Northeast in April and May revealed that 92% would return.
Although the number of passengers remains low, transportation experts urged lawmakers to look beyond the gross number of passengers when making financing decisions.
Public transport has been a lifeline during the pandemic for key workers and lower-income workers, many of whom cannot work from home or buy their own cars.
Cutting transport funds would also disproportionately affect women and ethnic minorities. A survey in the United States showed that public transport users during the height of the pandemic were “predominantly women and people of color” and that health professionals and food service workers were among the top occupations among passengers.
Proponents of public transport say an emotional case needs to be made to support public transport alongside economic arguments and practical measures to improve efficiency.
Mohamed Mezghani, secretary general of the International Public Transport Association based in Brussels, pointed to an initiative in Vienna inviting passengers to send selfies of themselves using public transport to be displayed on station screens.
“We need to act on two levels, the rational and the emotional,” he said.
“It is important to provoke positive feelings about public transport,” he said. “People should be proud to use public transport. … It’s like recycling. People do this because there is a feeling of satisfaction, because it is civic behavior. “
