The presidential candidacy has already cost Joe Biden at least one friend. In the Obama era, Biden spent dozens of hours with China’s President Xi Jinping. On one occasion, they ate pasta in a Beijing restaurant with Biden’s granddaughter, and Xi once called Biden an “old friend”. Recently, in May 2019, Biden insisted that China’s Communist leaders “are not bad people”.
But a lot can change in a few years. In an attempt to show his toughness towards China, Biden began to describe Xi as “a thug who actually has a million Uighurs in. . . Concentration camps. “As president, Biden says he will bring together” a united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s abusive behavior. “
But in reality, is the president-elect still too lenient with Beijing to confront Xi? Could he prove that the critics were wrong?
There is no shortage of possible “friends and partners”. China’s neighbors, such as Taiwan, Japan and India, are alarmed by Beijing’s growing military assertiveness. And in countries like Myanmar, where China is building roads, pipelines and power plants, there has been a popular reaction against what locals see as a violation of national sovereignty.
China’s diplomacy is also provoking anger. Look at Australia, where Beijing has poured money into influencing the country’s elites, through everything from trade deals to think tanks. In recent years, the climate has suddenly changed: Australia has tightened security rules on foreign investment and increased defense spending in the Indo-Pacific.
When the Australian government called for an international investigation into the origins of the new coronavirus, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs described it as “shocking”, since Australia should “be a good friend”.
Britain saw an equally rapid transformation. Five years ago, London was Europe’s biggest advocate for getting involved with Beijing. But last year, Boris Johnson’s administration put new barriers to Chinese investment, citing security concerns.
Meanwhile, at the United Nations, Xi managed to stifle criticism – until October last year, when 39 countries joined a declaration against Beijing’s violations of rights. China’s record has always been dire, but in the past year it has become unworthy of ignoring: you can’t forget the photos of millions of Hong Kong citizens protesting – followed by mass arrests of opposition figures. Nor are the indescribable images of Uighur Muslims being carried, blindfolded and handcuffed on trains.
And that was before the COVID-19 cover-ups. Even in relatively friendly regions in China, such as Latin America, there has been public revolt against Xi’s party for its role in the pandemic. A Pew survey found that China’s “unfavorable opinion” “skyrocketed last year”, from Canada to the Netherlands and South Korea.
In theory, then, Biden should be able to build his “united front”. In practice, it will be more difficult. Last month, the European Union ignored warnings from American officials, including a Biden adviser, and signed a trade agreement with China. (Xi cheerfully described it as an agreement between “the two main world powers”.) EU leaders may see China as a dangerous rival, but in the end, they needed business opportunities, even if it meant alienating Washington and maintaining silence about Xi atrocities.
When it comes to China’s business practices, then, Biden may find that his “friends and partners” evaporate. He can be more successful just by fulfilling Trump’s “phase one” trade deal. Outgoing commercial representative Robert Lighthizer argues that America is in a strong position to “keep [China’s] feet in the fire ”in its promises of fair practices and purchase commitments.
Biden’s “united front” will be more achievable in security, where he is expected to quietly reinforce existing alliances, such as “the Quad”, an informal partnership with India, Japan and Australia, and the intelligence sharing network “Five Eyes” “.
But it is in human rights that there is most obviously an opening for international cooperation. China has pledged to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy. Biden can lead the pressure to keep that promise – perhaps through coordinated international sanctions against Chinese officials.
He could also pressure Congress to legislate against supply chains linked to Uighur internment camps. And since Beijing will veto any attempt by international courts to investigate the camps, Biden can authorize American courts to make a decision.
That would be a drastic move. But if the president-elect really believes what he says – that his former friend is overseeing a “genocide” – it’s hard to see how he could do anything less.
Dan Hitchens writes from London. Twitter: @DDHitchens