Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly voting round.
Polls of the week
President Biden’s American Rescue Plan is extremely popular: 70% of adults said they were in favor of the legislation, compared with only 28% who opposed the project, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center.
Support for the bill has crossed party lines as well, with some polls revealing more than 50 percent of Republicans saying they strongly supported or somehow supported the broad aid package that includes more than $ 400 billion to fight the pandemic, $ 350 billion to help state and local governments address budget deficits and, of course, direct payments of $ 1,400 to individuals.
It should come as no surprise that the bill attracted support mainly from Democrats and Democrat-independent independents (94 percent, according to Pew), but what is a little more unexpected is the share of low-income and independent Republicans from republican tendency that they said favored legislation. An overwhelming majority (63 percent) of low-income Republicans said they were in favor of the project in that Pew report. This compares to 37% of Republicans in middle-income families and 25% of high-income Republicans. (Meanwhile, support among lower and higher-income Democratic families was equally high.)
At first glance, these numbers appear to reveal a potential lifesaver for Democrats who wish to avoid losing their majorities in Congress in 2022: succeeding in a strong economy in 2022, with voters penalizing Republicans who voted against sending relief to millions of Americans. But they also raise questions about how much we should invest in Republican support for the project, considering the incursions that the party made with low-income voters and without a university degree in the last presidential elections. In particular, how Democrats can win back White voters who fall into this field?
The answer is, of course, complicated. But the calculations by Biden and the Democrats, so far, appear to be promoting New Deal policies and an economic message that aims to reach more middle and working class voters. And according to an analysis by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, it is expected that the aid package will benefit more low and middle income families. They found that families earning $ 91,000 or less would receive 70% of the plan’s tax benefits. This contrasts sharply with the impact of the 2017 Tax and Employment Reductions Act under former President Donald Trump, where almost half of the cuts were for the wealthiest 5% families.
That said, Biden is not campaigning explicitly about this legislation. In fact, he rarely addressed the issue in his first presidential address earlier this month, rather than projecting a message of unity to American voters. But the potential effects of the project cannot be overstated: if the aid package is able to boost the economy and help financially low-income voters, Biden and other Democrats can reap the electoral benefits of this project – perhaps even avoiding “bombing” that the president’s party usually sees in mid-term elections.
So far, what’s working for Biden is that research after research has found that he is relatively popular with the American public: his approval rating for the treatment of the COVID-19 pandemic has remained stable in his 60s, which is a big improvement over that of Trump, who was stuck in his 30s. Its initial presidential approval rating is higher than that of Trump, but it is currently in the 50 percent range, which suggests that some voters are not necessarily taking into account how Biden is dealing with the pandemic when it comes to whether they think he’s doing a good job overall. (The project was approved last week, so it’s perfectly possible that we could see Biden’s numbers go up, but, as we reported earlier this week, don’t expect a big fluctuation in one way or another.)
Ultimately, whether Biden – and, by default, Democrats – will reap the electoral benefits depends on a myriad of factors: whether Biden’s approval remains stable or increases, whether Democrats can translate that legislative success into “credit” among voters , given the country’s polarization and whether Republicans can convince voters that the project’s spending has been excessive.
There are still many ways in which 2022 can become a medium-term disaster for Democrats (especially if the provisions of the bill lead to an increase in inflation). But at this point, it is widely popular and that is good news for Democrats. Although it is too early to say whether the majority party will maintain its small margins in the House and Senate, one thing is certain: a good economy can go to long manner.
Other voting bites
- Texas Governor Greg Abbott was criticized by Democrats and Republicans for dealing with the state’s coronavirus pandemic, but on March 2, in an apparent nod to Texas companies and their right flank, he announced that he would reopen the “100 percent” state and revoked a state mask mandate that had been in effect since July. According to the Morning Consult survey, this announcement may have had an adverse effect on Abbott’s approval ratings across the state, while a week-long winter storm that left millions without power and dozens dead did not change the numbers much. Abbott’s. In total, 52 percent of Texas voters said they approved of Abbott’s overall job performance – a 6-point drop since he announced the removal of COVID-19 restrictions. In the same period, the proportion of people who disapproved of Abbott increased by 8 points, to 43 percent.
- Meanwhile, in New York, Democrats are still undecided about whether Governor Andrew Cuomo should step down from his seat amid a barrage of sexual harassment charges: 49% of New York voters said Cuomo should no resign, against 43 percent who said he should, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. (This compares to a previous Quinnipiac survey, where 55 percent of respondents said he shouldn’t resign, compared to 40 percent who said he should.) Sure, this story is fluid, so expect those numbers to change, but the latest poll is one of a few that comes after a list of Democrats in the New York Congressional delegation – including the Sens. Chuck Shumer and Kirsten Gillibrand – asked the governor to resign.
- As we enter the second year of the pandemic, many Americans are still experiencing mental health problems, according to a recent Pew survey: Twenty-one percent of American adults said they are experiencing high levels of psychological distress; among those, 28 percent said the pandemic changed their lives “in an important way”. Low-income people, those between the ages of 18 and 29 and women are among some of the groups especially likely to say that they are experiencing higher levels of psychological distress.
- Meanwhile, as vaccine implantation continues and offices continue to develop plans for the post-pandemic workplace, 72 percent of respondents to a SurveyMonkey survey said their workplace is likely to have a work policy in place. more flexible home after the COVID-19 pandemic than before it started. According to the survey, the majority of employees who work from home (65 percent) said that their ideal work setting would be a hybrid model where they share their time working from home and From office.
- Most Americans, 68%, still plan to get vaccinated, according to a recent survey by Morning Consult. The survey also found that racial differences in access to the vaccine have narrowed significantly, confirming something we have already reported: access, rather than reluctance, is generating low vaccination rates among black Americans. But there is still a significant party gap. According to the Morning Consult poll, Democrats (83 percent) are more likely than Republicans (58 percent) and independent to say they would receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
Biden approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 53.6% of Americans approve of Biden’s job as president, while 40.4% disapprove (a net approval rating of +13.2 points). At the moment, last week, 53.2% passed and 40.2% failed (a net approval rate of +13.0 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 54.4 percent and a disapproval rating of 37.8 percent, for a net approval rating of +16.6 points.