In normal times, the Super Bowl is one of the country’s main social occasions – bringing together enthusiasts and non-fans for hours of football-fueled festivities.
But in the era of COVID-19, officials and experts say Sunday’s game represents a tremendous risk and that large watchdog groups could jeopardize California’s precarious emergence from the worst pandemic wave.
“Don’t be disturbed by this. We’re almost there, ”said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services. “We will keep our guard high a little longer.”
The warning against the Super Bowl parties is both to avoid past mistakes and to prevent future calamities. A big warning sign is the increase in the most contagious and possibly deadly strain of coronavirus first identified in Britain, B.1.1.7, which has grown considerably in San Diego County, which has probably resulted in a death there and represents almost a quarter of the known cases across the country.
San Diego County reported at least 137 confirmed cases of variant B.1.1.7 and 50 probable cases on Wednesday. There were at least 611 confirmed cases of the variant reported across the country as of Thursday.
The UK variant is believed to be 50% to 70% more transmissible than the regular circulating coronavirus variety. Simulations presented by a UC San Diego scientist to government officials warn that, even with a decent vaccination strategy, the average daily new cases of coronavirus in San Diego County in two months can be twice as bad as the peak during the peak of autumn and winter, overwhelmingly hospital capacity there, if residents again reject public health guidelines for wearing masks and avoiding meetings, as they did last year.
In addition to the county of San Diego, the United Kingdom strain has also been identified in the counties of Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Alameda and San Mateo, including between two UC Berkeley students who recently came from abroad to the USA.
“If we let our guard down and we end up with a large number of people in our house, inside, unmasked, screaming for our teams, we can see a possible reversal of the downward trend and end up with a further increase,” said Dr. Robert Kim- Farley, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.
California’s fall and winter peak has subsided in part because more people have followed the rules of staying at home and there have been no major holidays like Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and New Year’s Eve recently.
“However, the Super Bowl can be an opportunity for the mix to happen again,” said Kim-Farley. And that’s why we need to make sure we’re delivering a message: This Super Bowl isn’t the time for a big party. Wait until next year. “
While many factors have fueled the terrible rise that hit the state since late October, officials said they believed that people gathering to follow and celebrate the Dodgers and Lakers’ championships have increased the viral fire – especially in Southern California, hammered by an avalanche of new COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and, eventually, deaths.
The NBA finals began on September 30 and the World Series ended on October 27, giving the Lakers their first championship in a decade and the Dodgers their first World Series title since 1988. The San Diego Padres did the postseason for first time since 2006 and people gathered in homes and restaurants to cheer for their teams.
Days after the Dodgers removed the Fathers from the postseason on October 8, there were already warning signs that an increase was possible. “We are here to sound the alarm,” said San Diego County Health Officer, Dr. Wilma Wooten, on October 16.
In LA County, the average daily number of reported cases – recorded from the onset of the disease or early positive tests – exceeded 1,100 per day on October 12 for the first time since late August, when California began reopening after the peak of summer.
“You could just drive on Sunset [Boulevard], and you see all these restaurants that have installed their TVs outside and there are dozens and dozens of people eating and drinking … without masks, cheering, shouting, gathering, greeting each other ”, LA County Public Health Said director Barbara Ferrer. “We were watching all of this and understanding in our minds that it was really contributing to what we were seeing.”
The highly contagious coronavirus spreads through respiratory particles emitted when people speak and breathe, and screams and applause – especially indoors, but also a risk outdoors – greatly increase the risk of transmission.
These meetings, along with those held during Halloween and Thanksgiving, were “the beginning of a wave that led to many deaths in California, a really difficult and dark period,” said Ghaly this week. Since October 15, more than 26,000 Californian COVID-19 deaths have been reported, more than 60% of the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in California of more than 43,000.
California was forced to implement another round of stay-at-home and closing deals orders, which the authorities believe has blunted the severity of the latest increase and prevented state hospitals from being so overwhelmed that doctors would have been forced to ration care. hospital.
As serious as California had its last rise, neighboring Arizona – which does not have mask orders across the state and has kept restaurants and bars closed open – has suffered a much higher per capita mortality rate. If California had the Arizona death rate, California would have a cumulative number of deaths in COVID-19 of almost 78,000.
The Super Bowl is routinely the most popular television broadcast of the year, and tens of millions of people would attend private parties or go to crowded restaurants and bars to watch.
The director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, asked Americans to watch the game between Kansas City and Tampa Bay with people “just virtually or with the people you live with”. For those who still want to get together, the CDC suggested hosting an outdoor viewing party, watching the game on a projector screen, where people from different families can sit six feet or more away.
LA County allows small private meetings, but must be held outdoors, with a maximum of three families and 15 people present, and requires physical distance and wearing a mask when not actively eating or drinking.
Health officials’ warnings followed the recent reopening of the open-air restaurant, which was closed in much of California for weeks as the coronavirus winter surge peaked.
That ban was lifted last month after the state rescinded regional home stay orders that were in effect in southern California, the Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley.
While undoubtedly a boon for struggling businesses, the reopening is still a source of heartburn in some corners – especially in LA County, where health officials have long warned that, without proper precautions, outdoor dining areas they can serve as a table for the expanded transmission of the coronavirus, a claim disputed by many in the restaurant industry.
To combat the risk of viral transmissions in restaurants, LA county officials have imposed a new order for outdoor dining areas requiring “televisions or other screens that broadcast programming must remain off until further notice”. Ventura County is also recommending that companies turn off their TVs over the weekend, but stopped before a total ban, according to a statement.
UC San Francisco epidemiologist Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo said it was reasonable for LA county health officials to issue such an order.
“If I were in the public health field and wanted to find out how to protect the public, I would like to communicate that being with people you don’t know, without masks, shouting and cheering football games is inherently more risky activity; and that having dinner outdoors, as it encourages that, with the TVs on, it will also be a set of risky activities ”, said Bibbins-Domingo. “I think it is absolutely appropriate, given what we know about how the virus is transmitted, what we know about human behavior, especially around sporting events.”
Times staff writers, Jaweed Kaleem and Ryan Menezes, contributed to this report.