WASHINGTON – We are now exactly one month from the deadline for supporters to submit the nearly 1.5 million valid signatures to begin the process of re-calling California Governor Gavin Newsom – and to hold a referendum on progressive state governance. (Supporters say they already have that number, but signatures still need to be verified first.)
But there is a significant difference between this likely recall and the one that toppled Democratic Governor Gray Davis (and installed Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger) in 2003: California is much more blue – not white – than it was two decades ago.
Just look at these numbers:
In the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore defeated George W. Bush in California by more than 10 points, 53% to 42%.
In 2020? Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in California by almost 30 points (!!!), 63% to 34%.
In his victory for governor in 2002, Gray Davis won by only 5 points, 47% to 42%.
But Gavin Newsom’s victory in 2018? He defeated his opponent GOP by 24 points, 62% against 38%.
Ultimately, Gray Davis was recalled in 2003 by a 55% to 45% margin – with that 55% not far from the 53% of California voters who did not vote for him the year before.
But if Newsom is going to recall, it will take much more than the 38 percent of California voters who did not vote for him in 2018 – advocates of the recall will need to overcome this by at least 12 points to get the majority in the governor’s recall.
It is one thing for supporters of the recall to get 1.5 million signatures in a state of nearly 40 million residents.
Another is that Democrats lose a state in which the party won by 20 to 30 points.
Democratic governance is also at stake
But the recall effort is more than changing electoral margins and demographics.
It is about the future of democratic and progressive governance.
The state of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom, of course, is also the state of Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris.
And while supporters of the recall say that their biggest problem with Newsom is its way of dealing with the pandemic, much more – taxes, housing, transportation, even how San Francisco is naming its schools – seem to be at stake.
So there may be a bigger story going on in California than whether or not Gavin Newsom can survive a repealable election.
It is whether Democrats can rule in a state where they have most (if not all) political power.
Highlights from VP Harris “Today” interview
Speaking of Kamala Harris, here are some of the highlights from her “Today” interview this morning:
About vaccines: “Now we have a vaccine and this is great. But we need to put him in the arms of all Americans. And as the president said last night, we expect this to be done in terms of having the stock available by the end of July. “
On the reopening of schools: “Therefore, our goal is that as many K-8 schools as possible be reopened in the first 100 days. Our goal is to have five days a week. And then we have to work to achieve that goal. “
On Covid-19 relief legislation: “A big problem requires a big solution.”
On whether Trump should be charged criminally: “I did not analyze the case from the perspective of being a prosecutor. I am reviewing the case of COVID in America from the perspective of being the vice president of America ”.
Tweet of the day
Data download: the numbers you need to know today
At least 20: The number of reported deaths across the country is related to the recent winter storm and the brutal cold.
Almost 3 million: The number of people without power in Texas at the time of publication.
3,000: The estimated number of dynamite bananas to be used for the demolition of the former Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City this morning.
19.6 percentage points: Mitch McConnell’s margin of victory over Democrat Amy McGrath in 2020. (Trump said in a statement yesterday that McConnell “would have lost badly” without his support.)
27,880,005: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States, according to the latest data from NBC News and health officials. (There are 72,596 more than yesterday morning.)
490,176: The number of virus deaths in the United States so far, according to the latest data from NBC News. (1,812 more than yesterday morning.)
64,533: The number of people currently hospitalized with coronavirus in the United States.
337.3 million: The number of coronavirus tests that have been administered in the United States so far, according to researchers at The COVID Tracking Project.
55,220,364: Number of vaccine doses administered in the USA
15,015,434: Fully vaccinated people in the USA
71: The number of days left for Biden to reach his 100-day vaccination goal.
Promises made, promises kept?
In his first term as president, Joe Biden made promises, in addition to the dates when those promises would be kept.
Vaccines available to all Americans (600 million doses) – End of July.
K-8 schools open for face-to-face learning five days a week – Majority in the first 100 days (late April).
An immigration plan supported by Biden – Launch by the end of this week.
And a big promise from another Democratic candidate that Biden will not keep is to cancel $ 50,000 in student debt.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Has made canceling student debt a central aspect of her 2020 campaign and has been insisting on it since Biden won the election.
When asked what Biden would do to cancel $ 50,000 in student debt the night before, the president bluntly said, “I won’t make it happen.”
Biden expressed support for the cancellation of $ 10,000 in federal student debt.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
The recent Texas storm and energy crisis are highlighting the challenges of a clean energy future.
A Texas mayor resigned after telling residents in his city to defend themselves.
A Democratic congressman and the NAACP filed a lawsuit against Trump and former lawyer Rudy Giuliani over the Capitol riot.
The New York Times reports what was going on behind the scenes with Trump’s legal impeachment team.
Senators Tom Cotton, R-Ark. And Mitt Romney, R-Utah, are working on a proposal that would link a minimum wage increase to immigration enforcement.
Biden is extending the foreclosure moratorium and mortgage tolerance until June.
What was happening to Kamala Harris’ claim that the Biden administration was “starting from scratch” in administering the vaccine? The Washington Post gives her two Pinocchios.
Now George Conway says he is in favor of ending the Lincoln Project.
Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry is in the Wisconsin Senate.
CORRECTION (February 17, 2021, 11:05 am Eastern time): An earlier version of this article distorted the results of the 2000 California presidential election. Democrat Al Gore defeated the state over Republican George W. Bush by more than 10 points, not less than 1 point.