Most California counties could move out of the state’s strictest coronavirus closing range next week, setting the stage for a broader economic reopening than seen in months, according to a Times data analysis.
The key to such a dramatic change will be for the state to achieve its goal of administering 2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to residents in its most disadvantaged areas, an obstacle that Governor Gavin Newsom said could be eliminated on Friday.
When that happens, the state will relax the limit necessary for counties to move out of the more restrictive purple category of its four-tier reopening plan – where most counties have resided since the early days of the devastating fall and winter coronavirus wave.
Doing so would open the door for a dozen counties, including Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino, to advance to the less restrictive red level as early as this weekend, the data show.
At this point, only two dozen counties – home to about 8 million Californians – are not in the purple layer.
Twenty are in the red layer; three went from red to orange; and only one county, Alpine, has reached the most tolerant yellow layer.
Most of these counties are in the bay area and on the central coast, the rest in rural northern California and the Sierra Nevada. Much of southern California and the Central Valley remain as bruises on the state’s coronavirus screen.
But when California reaches its 2 million dose target, the state’s revised rules will allow counties to move out of the purple layer more quickly and easily, paving the way for even larger urban areas to begin unlocking additional commercial activities and operations, though still with modifications.
The counties that would be positioned to move to the red as soon as the state reaches its target are Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Contra Costa, Sonoma, Placer, Mendocino, San Benito, Tuolumne, Siskiyou, Colusa and Mono.
Together, these 12 municipalities have more than 17.7 million inhabitants, representing 45% of the state’s population.
If current trends continue, the following counties may qualify to move from purple to red next week: San Diego, Riverside, Sacramento, Ventura, Tulare, Santa Barbara, Monterey, Sutter, Yuba, Lake and Tehama.
More than 9.7 million people live in these 11 counties. If they move forward next week, that would increase the number of non-purple counties to 47, which are home to 90% of the state’s population.
While the tier system takes into account a number of factors, including testing positivity rates and a health equity metric designed to ensure that the positivity rate in poorer communities is not significantly worse than the overall county number, hopes Wider reopening times depend on a particular aspect: case quotes.
Currently, counties are expected to have a daily rate of new coronavirus cases – adjusted based on the number of tests performed – that is 7.0 new cases per day or less per 100,000 people to go from purple to red.
After the state reaches its 2 million dose target, however, counties with a case rate of up to 10.0 new cases per day per 100,000 people will become eligible for the red level.
Upon reaching a limit, counties must register two consecutive weeks of case rates low enough to move forward. The only counties that would not be in a position to move forward next week, even under the revised criteria, are Fresno, Kern, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Kings, Nevada, Amador, Glenn and Inyo.
Changes to the classification scheme were announced as part of a broader effort to address persistent inequalities in vaccine administration.
California is now reserving 40% of its COVID-19 vaccines available to residents in socio-economically disadvantaged areas – a pledge that officials said would promote equity and reinforce the state’s battle against the pandemic, ensuring that an ample supply was available to residents. workers and residents most at risk of being victims or vectors of the coronavirus.
Reaching the red level, while still the second strictest of the four state categories, would allow counties to again allow dinner at indoor restaurants and cinemas to reopen with a capacity of 25% or up to 100 people, whichever is less.
Red-level counties may also allow face-to-face classes to be resumed for students in grades 7 through 12. Indoor gyms and dance and yoga studios can open at 10% capacity. Museums, zoos and aquariums can open indoor activities at 25% capacity, and non-essential stores and libraries can open at 50% capacity, above 25%.
From April 1st, amusement parks will also be able to receive visitors, with restrictions, in this category.
Although the new state rules are more permissive, local health officials still have the power to maintain restrictions if they feel they are justified, which means that some counties may take a slower or more measured approach than allowed by the state.
However, authorities confirmed on Thursday that LA County’s restaurants, gyms, museums and cinemas will be allowed to reopen for modified indoor activities as soon as the state allows it.
“It will be up to everyone, businesses and residents, to continue driving through the broadcast and follow safety guidelines closely to keep everyone as safe as possible, avoiding the increase in cases,” said public health director Barbara Ferrer in a statement. “Even when a relatively small number of companies and individuals fail to follow safety precautions, many others experience tragic consequences.”
But with coronavirus cases on the decline and the number of vaccinated Californians on the rise, broader reopenings continue.
The California Department of Public Health announced a handful of additional changes on Thursday, including that non-meal breweries, wineries and distilleries will be allowed to resume modified external operations at all levels beginning on Saturday.
In the purple and red layers, customers will need to make reservations and will be subject to a time limit of 90 minutes, according to the most recent state guidance, and consumption on site must be stopped until 8 pm.
These companies may start to open indoors as their home counties progress, although capacity is limited to 25% or 100 people, whichever is less, in the orange layer; and 50% or 200 people, whichever is smaller, in the yellow layer.
Bars that do not serve food remain closed for all operations in the purple and red layers, but can reopen outdoors with modifications in the orange layer. From Saturday, the bars will be able to open in closed places in the counties of the yellow layer, with capacity limited to 25% or 100 people, whichever is smaller.