NBA Breakdown offers data-based analysis for each day using FantasyLabs tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10 game slate starting at 7 pm ET.
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Point Guard
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Trae Young it has been absolutely rolling recently. He scored at least 50.75 DraftKings in each of the last six games, but his salary actually dropped over that period. It cost $ 9,600 in DraftKings against the Timberwolves last Friday, but you can win it for just $ 9,100 tonight against the Wizards. It doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The Wizards stand out as an elite showdown for Young. They played at the fastest pace in the league this season and are also 29th in defensive efficiency. It is difficult to overcome this combination from a fantasy point of view. The Hawks are currently implicated by 118.75 points, which is tied with the second highest mark on the list.
Value
Darius Garland joined the starting lineup in Cavs’ last fight for the first time since returning from an injury four games ago. He finally finished with 31.3 minutes and responded with 26.0 DraftKings points. His playing time only increases as he moves away from the injury, making him a buy-low target of just $ 5,000. He averages 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has many advantages when returning to his pre-injury workload.
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Kyle Lowry stands out as someone who has a low price across the industry. He has an excellent showdown against the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus / Minus of +2.88 on FanDuel, and he carries one of the biggest workloads in the position. He’s currently projected for 35.1 minutes on our NBA models, and he’s leaving 37.4 minutes on his last outing.
The Clippers are expected to be understaffed again tonight. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George lost the last two games due to health and safety protocols, while Patrick Beverley is indefinitely with a knee injury. Reggie Jackson dominated in his place, scoring at least 34.6 FanDuel points in each of the last two games. He is one of the best pure values as a point guard at FanDuel, where his $ 5,800 salary comes with a bargain rating of 72%.
Shooting guard
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Fred VanVleet he scored at least 41.75 points on DraftKings in each of the last three games, but his salary actually dropped – $ 800 over that period. The Raptors are almost at full strength – which will hurt VanVleet’s value in the long run – but they could run out OG Anunoby against kings. He is currently listed as questionable after losing his last game, and VanVleet would become a very attractive target if he failed to adapt.
VanVleet also benefits from an elite clash. The Kings are last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Raptors’ implicit team of 117.5 is fourth on the list.
Value
Seth Curry has posted a positive / negative negative in all four games since returning from a long absence, causing his salary to drop to $ 4,400. That said, he is leaving 30.5 minutes in his last game, which is his best mark at the time. This bodes well for your fantasy value in the future. Curry has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay his current salary with a workload comparable to that of the Timberwolves.
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Terance Mann is another potential source of value for Clippers, especially FanDuel for just $ 4,500. He averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute last month, and he posted a positive / negative positive in his last two games. He is also in a decent position against Magic, who drew 20th in terms of defensive efficiency this season.
D’Angelo Russell he lost the last two games to the Timberwolves, but he is questionable for tonight’s showdown against the 76ers. He’s an interesting counter option if he can get dressed. The Timberwolves are still playing without Karl-Anthony Towns, and Russell leads the team with a 32.1% usage rate with Towns off the court this season. He also increased his fantasy production to 1.19 FanDuel points per minute last month.
Small Forward
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Joel Embiid is currently listed as questionable, and Tobias Harris would see one of the biggest bumps in the value if it couldn’t fit. He increased his usage rate by + 4.0% with Embiid out of bounds this season – which is the team’s second highest mark – and he averages 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in this situation. Harris also leads the team with an average of 36.17 DraftKings points in three games with Embiid out of the team, despite having an average of 30.2 pedestrian minutes in these disputes.
You can also argue that Harris’ price is low, even if Embiid is active. The Timberwolves have been terrible defensively this season, especially in games without Towns.
Value
Jeremy LambPlaying time has been a roller coaster ride since joining the Pacers’ rotation. He has played 28.4 minutes or more in two of the last four games, and 20.6 minutes or less in the other two.
That said, our models are very optimistic about Lamb’s playing time today. It is currently designed for 32.9 minutes on our NBA models, giving it the potential to be one of the best values on the list. Lamb averages 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage with so much playing time.
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Gordon Hayward has been one of the most underrated assets in fantasy this season. He is carrying a huge workload for the Hornets – he has played at least 37.1 minutes in five consecutive games – and is currently projected for 37.3 minutes against the Pacers. Hayward scored at least 43.25 points in DraftKings in three of his last four games, so he stole just $ 7,000 on Friday.
You can add Khris Middleton to the list of undervalued players. He has had an Over / Under average of +5.88 in his last 10 FanDuel games, and he has scored at least 40.1 FanDuel points in four of the last five games. Overall, his average 1.19 FanDuel points per minute this season is only behind Kevin Durant’s 1.37 mark among tonight’s little strikers. Middleton will probably check in with a much smaller property than he should.
Power Forward
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Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the most dominant force in fantasy per minute. He averages 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season, and while that’s not as impressive as his last season’s mark, it still unquestionably gives him the league’s highest ceiling whenever he takes the floor.
His playing time has recently increased – he has recorded at least 36.4 minutes in consecutive games – and his fantasy numbers in these competitions have been impressive. He finished with at least 57.5 DraftKings points in both games, including 63.0 DraftKings points in his last game. Tonight’s clash against the Pelicans is expected to be competitive, with Vegas listing the Bucks as just 6.5 favorite spots on the roads. That should mean another solid workload for Giannis, and his $ 10,800 salary at DraftKings comes with a bargain rating of 90%.
Value
Isaac Okoro saw a good improvement in playing time with Larry Nance Jr. off schedule recently. He played at least 34 minutes in consecutive games, including a team record of 37.3 minutes on Wednesday against the Pistons. Nance is questionable for tonight’s showdown against the Knicks, and Okoro would become an attractive game of value if he were dropped. Okoro hasn’t been doing very well per minute during his debut season, but anyone worth under $ 4,000 with the potential to play 37 minutes is worth considering.
Make sure to monitor Nance’s status using the Labs Insiders tool.
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DeMar DeRozanThe price of DraftKings has plummeted recently. He was priced at $ 8,900 just 11 days ago, but he dropped to $ 6,800 for Friday’s showdown against the Nuggets. This results in a bargain rating of 98% and DeRozan has historically averaged more / less than +5.05 with a comparable salary as a member of Spurs (according to the Trends tool).
Aaron Gordon is listed as a force striker on FanDuel, but in fact he has been playing more as a point guard recently. He led the team in assists with Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams both off the schedule, which gives you a little more advantage than normal. Gordon also stands out as one of the best pure values in the position at FanDuel, given his 71% Trading Rating.
center
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Nikola Jokic disappointed in consecutive games, causing his salary to drop to just $ 10,100 in Friday’s clash against Spurs. This makes it a prime low buy target. Jokic had a ridiculous 58.2 DraftKings points per game last month, and this type of production would represent enormous value at its current price. Overall, Jokic averaged Over / Under +7.35 with a comparable salary this season.
Spurs is not an elite showdown for great men, but neither is it a team you need to fear: they are in 25th place in defensive efficiency this season.
Value
Cody Zeller comes from 29.7 minutes in his last fight, which was easily his highest mark since his injury return. Ultimately, he finished with 37.0 DraftKings points in that contest, which was also against the Pacers. He’s pretty cheap across the industry if he’s going to see that long playing again today.
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Embiid may not serve you tonight, but it is an interesting option if you do. He has been absolutely dominant recently, averaging 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in the past month, and he should be able to destroy the wolves in the countryside. It has an Opponent Plus / Minus of +2.86, and Minnesota simply has no one who is able to slow it down. Embiid’s property may also be slightly smaller than normal, as people don’t like to scale players with injuries.
Photo above: Nikola Jokic
Credit: Issac Baldizon / NBAE via Getty Images