Bucs-Packers, Bills-Chiefs picks, schedule, odds, injuries, predictions, more for AFC and NFC championships

NFL playoff conference championship games have arrived, with both starting on Sunday. The fifth-placed Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the best Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game and then the second-placed Buffalo Bills will face the No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The winners advance to the Super Bowl LV on February 7.

We are testing the two games in the title. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to the games, a bold prediction for each match and final scoring choices.

In addition, ESPN Stats & Information provides a statistic to know for each game and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes within the numbers with a comparison rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a projection of the game. ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman distributes useful nuggets and NFL analyst Matt Bowen points out a key showdown to watch as well. It’s all here to help you prepare for an exciting NFL playoff weekend.

Go to a match:
TB-GB | BUF-KC

3:05 pm Eastern Time | Fox
Correspondence classification: 96.3 | Propagation: GB -3 (51.5)

What to note: If there’s anything to complain about in Matt LaFleur’s two-year run as a Packers coach, it may be a slow step to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ takedowns, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams that played zone against Rodgers in the past two years, the better they did. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what lies ahead in terms of coverage and how they plan to do so will dictate their level of success against a difficult Tampa Bay defense. – Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: The Buccaneers quarterback touchdown pass Tom Brady will not be released to wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown or Scotty Miller, tight ends Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate, or running backs Ronald Jones II or Leonard Fournette . No, he will go to wide receiver Tyler Johnson. The rookie in the fifth round chosen in Minnesota had only one reception last week against the Saints, but that 15-yard turn on the perimeter was masterful. The only reason we are not talking about Johnson anymore is because of the depth chart in which he is buried. He has a knack for making difficult catches in high pressure situations and will do it again on Sunday. – Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The two biggest factors in Brady’s performance throughout the season were pressure and vertical play. In 13 wins over the season (including playoffs), he averaged 1.1 sacks per game, saw pressure in 14% of his falls and scored 82 CBR. But in five defeats, the sacks jumped to 2.2 per game, its pressure rate rose to 27% and its CBR was almost halved (44). And when it comes to the deep ball, consider the following: on passes thrown more than 20 yards on the field over 18 games, he hit 45% for 11 touchdowns and no interception in wins, but only 21% for a single score and five choices in losses.

Bowen’s comparison key: How will Tampa Bay keep Packers’ wide receiver Davante Adams under control? It will start at the scrimmage line on cover 1, with Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis trying to use his length and physical features to interrupt Adams’ release. If he can’t, Davis’s lack of speed of recovery versus Adams’ sudden ability to separate will pose problems for Bucs. Read More.

What is at stake: A Buccaneers victory would mark the first non-division champion to reach the Super Bowl since the 2010 Packers. It would also bring Brady’s 10th appearance in the Super Bowl, spanning three decades. Rodgers, however, played only one Super Bowl. And after losing his last three appearances in NFC championship games and going 1-3 over his career in this game, Rodgers is trying to avoid becoming only the third QB to have less than two wins and more than three losses in clashes for the conference title (Ken Stabler and Donovan McNabb are both 1-4).

Injuries: Buccaneers | Packers

Bet nugget: Brady is 9-4 straight and 6-7 against the spread in conference championship games. The under is 8-5 in those fights, including 7-2 in his last nine. Read More.

Laine’s choice: Buccaneers 26, Packers 24
Demovsky’s choice: Packers 31, Buccaneers 17
FPI forecast: GB, 53.2% (by an average of 1.1 points)

Home audience: Last week’s playoff game at Lambeau Field was attended by 8,456. With potentially more guests from players and coaches from both teams at the stadium this week, the expected audience is in the 8,500-9,000 range. That is approximately 10-11% of Lambeau’s 81,441 capacity.

Matchup required readings: Finally, Rodgers vs. Brady: Within the 13-year playoff clash in preparation … ‘Too much information’ is never enough for Packers’ dominant attack … WR Brown (knee) to be called playing time for Bucs … Culminating achievement : Packers’ receivers have proved worthy once and for all … Bucs has beaten Rodgers before, but does the formula change? … Rodgers is not feeling extra pressure, says his future is ‘beautiful mystery’

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18h40 ET | CBS
Correspondence classification: 92.3 | Propagation: KC -3 (53.5)

What to note: Will Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes (concussion protocol) play? That is the question on everyone’s mind, with Chad Henne reinforcement set to begin if Mahomes is out. But with or without Mahomes, the Chiefs’ racing game will be something to keep an eye on. Kansas City raced for a season record of 245 yards against Buffalo in Week 6, when the Bills threw their bouncers over many snaps and were determined not to let Tyreek Hill and other receivers defeat them. They will certainly change their strategy this time, but at what cost? The Chiefs managed just over 22 yard pass passes against the Bills last time. Can the Bills effectively delay the Chiefs’ running game while still limiting the number of big pass moves? – Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen will pass a 350 yard pass and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will make his third game in a row with 100 yards and a touchdown. And a little more daring, the Bills will not only win, but will also completely overtake the Chiefs in their own backyard, opening Buffalo’s first Super Bowl ticket since the 1993 season. – Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Bills dropped to spend 73% of the time in this postseason, and only one team made it to the conference title game by passing more often – the 2015 Patriots (83%), who lost in that season’s AFC Championship Game. Buffalo won last week with just 32 running yards – the fourth lowest number ever in a playoff victory, according to the Elias Sports Bureau – and Allen currently leads the team on the ground with 57 yards in two postseason games. The Bills averaged 64.0 run yards per game this season, less than all but one team reaching the Super Bowl; the 1999 Rams average was 41.0.

Bowen’s comparison key: Watch out for the Chiefs defense to show pressure and turn late to play the cover 2 “thief”, with safety Tyrann Mathieu as the defender of the half-hole. This allows the Chiefs to get Allen to work after the late-motion snap, but also allows Kansas City to cover the area with Mathieu lying in the woods as a midfield presence, in a position to steal an in-breaker. Read More.

What is at stake: The Chiefs aim to become the first repeated Super Bowl champions since the 2003-04 Patriots, the longest period in NFL history without a repeat champion. They are the 12th Super Bowl champion to host a conference championship, and the previous 11 teams were 10-1 (only the loss was to the 1990 49ers). The Bills, meanwhile, are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since their four-game losing streak in the 1990-93 seasons. They have not won a title of any kind since the 1965 AFL Championship, and their 0-4 record in the Super Bowls is tied with the Vikings in most unsuccessful matches.

Injuries: Accounts | Chiefs | Latest in Mahomes

Bet nugget: The Chiefs are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games (8-1 outright), and are 0-5 against the spread in the last five at home. Read More.

Louis-Jacques’ choice: Accounts 31, Chiefs 28
Teicher’s choice: Chiefs 27, Bills 22
FPI forecast: KC, 58.3% (by an average of 2.7 points)

Home audience: The Chiefs kept their attendance at 22% or less at Arrowhead Stadium (76,416 total capacity) this season, with their biggest crowd coming in last week against the Browns (16,730). Expect a similar number in the AFC Championship Game.

Mandatory readings of the comparison: The accounts may justify the change of Mahomes’ choice reaching the Super Bowl … For Chiefs’ Reid, ‘every drop is a fall’, even in the fourth to 1 … How serious is Davis’ ankle injury? The biggest questions go to the AFC title game … Mahomes practices in limited capacity, remains in the concussion protocol