CLEVELAND, Ohio – At first, Vegas thought the Browns should have a 6.5 point advantage in Week 17 at home against the newly crowned AFC North Steelers. Mike Tomlin had not yet said if he would take a break to start, but it seemed like a fair phrase.
On Tuesday afternoon, everything changed. Tomlin announced that second year quarterback Mason Rudolph would start, giving 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger his first full week of rest since August. That change pushed the Browns’ favorites from 6.5 points to 10.
Remember, the Steelers have not had a full farewell week for the entire season. Pittsburgh’s original goodbye was Week 8. But when the Titans had their COVID-19 spurt, it forced the league to move Tennessee’s Week 4 game against the Steelers to Week 8.
On paper, it looks simple. But in reality, it was the worst logistical scenario for a Pittsburgh team full of veterans. Think about it. The Steelers trained all week in preparation for the Titans, only to find out a few days before the game was postponed.
Basically, the farewell week lasted two days instead of a week. The Pittsburgh squad includes 10 players over the age of 30. Three forwards from the starting line (Alejandro Villanueva, David DeCastro, Maurkice Pouncey), cornerback Joe Haden and striker Cam Heyward could rest like Big Ben, but it looks like they will play.
However, I would not be surprised if that changed. For example, Tomlin said, “given the opportunity to send one or two players by air for the postseason, we will do it.”
He went on to name only Roethlisberger and added that most of the starters will play. Note that it leaves room for maneuver. For example, TJ Watt playing a complete game would not surprise me. He is 26 and is in a race against Aaron Donald for the defensive player of the year.
But sitting down some older players seems logical. We probably won’t know Tomlin’s complete plan until Sunday. It is also unclear what the Steelers’ attack with Rudolph on the shotgun will look like.
Roethlisberger leads the league in passing attempts with 608. That averages about 40 moves per game. Is it a good idea for Tomlin to give Myles Garrett 40 chances to fire Rudolph? Probably not. However, in the last full game that Rudolph started, he played 44 times, in the 21-7 defeat at the FirstEnergy stadium. He completed 53 percent of his passes and was intercepted four times.
Handing the ball over to James Conner is probably not the solution either. Despite Conner’s career-long success against Cleveland (including a 100-yard performance in Week 6), the Steelers are the last in yards per game (84.3) and 28th in race attempts per game (23) .
Pittsburgh is so bad on the run that teams ranked 31 and 30 (Texans and Lions) have an average of seven more yards per competition.
How will the Steelers attack attempt to overcome the Browns’ defense? It is not clear. But considering the history between these two teams and the fact that it is the National Football League, a victory for the Browns will not be easy.
Be careful with Browns bettors. Covering a 10-point spread will also not be easy.
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