Love or hate the way John Elway managed the Broncos’ personnel decisions, one thing he did well was using the limit rollover rules.
In the past three years, Elway’s cap decisions have exceeded $ 8 million, almost $ 15 million and this year $ 17.8 million for next year’s salary cap. And this year, that number is extremely important because, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a big reduction in the limit for the 2021 season.
This year’s cap was $ 198.2 million and next season’s cap could reach $ 175 million, although it may be higher than the agreed wage floor.
Therefore, according to Spotrac, the Broncos currently have $ 16.8 million in coverage space thanks to this rollover. That is, if you are counting only the first 51 contracts of the team, which are those that end up counting against the limit because they come after the cuts happen.
That $ 16.8 million of space is decent, leaving Denver in 13th, with the Jacksonville Jaguars leading with $ 74.5 million in space. Of course, the Jags have been terrible this year and others – like the $ 65 million New York Jets – are at the top, with more competitive teams having considerably less money to work with.
George Paton, the new Broncos GM, enters the scene with the task of transforming a list of perennially lost in the playoffs to another worthy of being back in the postseason tournament.
Defensively, the Broncos are reasonably well built. There’s Bradley Chubb on one side of the line – a young star rusher – safety superstar Justin Simmons at the end, with Bryce Callahan, Kareem Jackson, Von Miller and more. Offensively, the Broncos has some game makers, but apart from the star of Courtland Sutton and the great Phillip Lindsay, Denver’s attack is filled with young people who are still looking to reach their potential.
And the team needs more talent in general, which is evident in the units of special teams that fight.
The good news for Paton and the Broncos is: this is the perfect time for a new GM.
Two of the team’s most expensive players, Miller and Simmons, could be hired or fired. Simmons is already an unrestricted free agent, as Denver tagged him and paid him $ 11.4 million last year. Does Paton want to keep Simmons – one of the top 5 security players – on the team?
“We are not going to let our good and young players go,” Paton told the media on Tuesday during his introductory press. So it looks like the Broncos will try to keep you close.
Spotrac says its market value is $ 15.4 million a year, which would be almost the entire salary cap for the team (before other moves, we will reach them in a second). As for Miller, he owes $ 22.25 in 2021, the last year of his business, but it can be cut. Cutting it would mean a blow of $ 4.2 million in terms of dead limit, but it would save the team about $ 15 million.
Miller is probably the greatest defender in the history of the Denver Broncos. He was the Defensive Rookie of the Year 2011, he is the all-time leader of the team in sacks and he was the Super Bowl 50 MVP. But, this is a league of “what have you been doing for me lately” and Paton is not Elway.
Elway was totally loyal to his choices in the draft (Miller was the first), and Miller may not be as willing to work on a restructuring with Paton as he may have been with Elway.
Then, come the easiest decisions for Paton. Both Jurrell Casey and AJ Bouye were exchanged for last season and the two veterans were a disappointment in Denver. Casey was injured earlier this year and so was Bouye, before being suspended for 6 games, which will last until 2021.
Cutting these two would come without penalty, saving the Broncos $ 24.2 million. Nick Vannett, the tight end who did very little in 2020, could also be cut to a savings of $ 3.6 million.
So, to recap. The Broncos could: Save $ 15 million by cutting Miller, saving $ 12.3 million by cutting Casey and saving $ 11.9 million by freeing Bouye and $ 3.6 million for Vannett. Add that to the $ 16.8 they already have, and that’s $ 59.6 million in the cover space.
So, Paton can turn around and hire Simmons for a big deal, re-sign Lindsay and still have $ 35-40 million to use on other players of his choice.
Of course, there are many other Broncos-free agents to examine as well. (We classify them here.) Shelby Harris, Tim Patrick and Alexander Johnson are apparently irrational, but Paton will be tasked with evaluating them all and making difficult decisions.