EDINBURGH, Scotland – People in Britain have been planning a relatively normal Christmas with their families for just a few weeks, thanks to relaxed rules for the pandemic. Now, with the mutant coronavirus variant fueling an almost vertical spike in new daily cases, large parts of the country are starting the new year being pushed back into the most severe of blocks.
The speed of recovery was surprising and terrifying. In late November, after a national blockade in England, Britain’s number of cases had dropped to about 13,000 a day. The country has now registered more than 50,000 cases for six consecutive days.
By way of comparison, England recorded 476.9 cases per 100,000 people last week – a rate almost five times worse than California, the most affected US state, which, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the USA, is registering 98.8 cases per 100,000. The message to the world seems to be clear – the new variant spreads faster and, without strict preventive measures, it will happen to you too.
Britain’s rise comes despite the planned relaxation for Christmas being canceled, schools closing at Christmas and the biggest city, London, being on the first block level for two weeks. Experts have been warning for weeks that the new variant is spreading so quickly that the rules that may have worked last year are no longer sufficient. Political leaders are now struggling to figure out how to topple it or face a catastrophe.
Scotland was the first. His decentralized nationalist government had already closed the border with England after Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that the new variant was running wild in the south. On Monday, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced a blockade as rigid as that of spring. Her message – stay home and keep your kids out of school, or we’ll end up as screwed as England.
Sturgeon estimated that Scotland is now about four weeks behind England’s rise, but the new rules – which oblige Scots by law not to leave their homes, but for some essential purposes – are designed to keep the country out of control. like your neighbors. Scotland is registering 188.3 cases per 100,000, less than half the rate in England in the past seven days, according to government data.
Meanwhile, Johnson has been under intense pressure to prevaricate, while cases in England have seen peak after peak. This could come to an end on Monday, as the prime minister must address the nation and be warned that measures must become more rigid. It is not clear, however, exactly what the new action will be.
Asked what it was taking so long to do something, Johnson said: “What we were hoping for is to see the impact of level four measures on the virus and that is not clear, yet, at the moment. But if you look at the numbers, there is no doubt that we will have to take tougher measures and we will announce them in due course ”.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock admitted that the rules that have worked since the end of spring “are no longer strong enough”.
Even more worrying, however, is Hancock’s belief that the new British variant may not even be the greatest threat facing an already engulfed nation. He said on Monday that he was “extremely concerned” about a South African variant that was considered even more transmissible than the British one – and two cases have been confirmed in Britain.
Hancock told the BBC on Monday: “This is a very, very significant problem … even more problematic than the new UK variant.”
One reason for this concern may be that British experts have openly questioned whether current vaccines will work on the South African mutant. John Bell, a professor at the University of Oxford and a government vaccine consultant, said there is a “big question mark” about whether existing vaccines will work in the South African variant.
It is clear that Britain is in a bad situation – what is much less clear is whether this is as bad as possible, whether new measures will be sufficient to control the mutant virus and what will happen if an even worse one takes over.