The UK should increase its vaccinations to 2 million doses a week – a 10-fold jump – and maintain a national Tier 4 block if it wants to reduce a Covid-19 peak caused by a highly infectious strain, a new study warned.
Conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and delivered to the official UK SAGE [The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] advisory group last week, the research notes that with a new strain of coronavirus found “56% more transmissible” than other known variants, the country faces a significant “wave” infections, hospitalizations and deaths without continuous restrictions and a vast increase in its vaccine program.
“We found that regardless of the simulated control measures, all NHS regions are expected to experience a subsequent wave of cases and deaths from Covid-19, peaking in the spring of 2021 for London, south east and east of England, and in the summer of 2021 for the rest of England, “ according to the study, which was based on mathematical modeling.
We project that it is likely that major resurgences of the virus will occur after the relaxation of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate the launch of the vaccine to have an appreciable impact on suppressing the resulting disease burden.
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The UK vaccination program currently distributes 200,000 doses per week, about 10 times less than what the study argued would be needed to stop a large increase in the outbreak.
Although the researchers noted that they were unable to find “clear evidence” that the new strain results in more severe symptoms, its greater transmissibility “It is likely to lead to a big increase” in hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19, despite the restrictions that existed before December 19. Only one “Across England” Level 4 blockade – currently the highest level in the country’s multi-level structure – coupled with a rapid increase in vaccinations can reduce “Maximum ICU load” to numbers below those seen in 2020.
“Our estimates suggest that stringent control measures similar to the national blockade implemented in England in November 2020 will hardly reduce the number of effective reproductions … unless primary schools, secondary schools and universities are also closed,” the study continued, referring to the rate of dissemination of the coronavirus.
However, even with the 2 million vaccinations recommended per week and a national Level 4 blockade, the researchers’ models estimated an additional 35,700 deaths in the UK between now and the end of June. Without the tenfold increase for vaccinations and stricter restrictions, that projection has soared to 118,000 deaths.
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The repeated warnings by UK health officials about the new mutant strain have helped to generate fears of another long-term blockade in the country, including rumors of even more severe ‘Tier 5’ restrictions. The worries sparked an exodus from London and elsewhere before Christmas, when thousands of citizens tried to escape a new round of measures imposed in some areas during the holiday.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the temporary restrictions will be reviewed on Wednesday, but in light of the new strain and LSHTM recommendations, it is unclear whether health officials will be ready to reduce containment measures, which remain in place. level 4 in London and much of south east England. While the rest of the country was placed in layers 2 and 3, denoting “High” and “very high” risk in the four-tier system, “Millions” more could be moved to Tier 4 after this week’s review, according to Whitehall sources cited by the Telegraph.
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