When John Kerry, the new United States special presidential envoy to the climate, came forward to speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, he had Australia in mind.
The former secretary of state was impressed by a New York Times article by author Michael Benson, which described satellite images of the “flame vortexes” that spiraled into the atmosphere as the continent’s wildlife burned a year ago, sending a plume through of New Zealand and the Pacific.
It was, said Kerry, evidence of the urgency of climate change “literally around us”. He quoted Benson: “In the end, fires in Australia killed dozens of people, destroyed 5,900 buildings and most likely, according to the best science, extinguished some of the country’s endangered species.
“With shocking iconographic precision, that banner of smoke that unfolded said: ‘The war has started, we are losing’.”
The expectation that Joe Biden would act quickly to reverse the US recalcitrance in the climate crisis under Donald Trump has grown since his election, but even those hoping for an ambitious repositioning were shocked by the pace and breadth of the changes made.
The new president issued a detailed, multi-part executive order on Wednesday, a week after signing the papers to re-join the Paris agreement on his first day in office.
Observers who spoke to Guardian Australia about the plan emphasized the scope of the Biden government’s vision. The order incorporates dealing with the climate emergency in all government operations, with a particular focus on its importance in foreign policy and national security.
This underscores the scale of international pressure that the Morrison government is likely to face this year if it maintains its resistance to assuming the science-based commitments envisaged in the 2015 climate pact.
Where the Morrison government prefers not to use the term “climate change”, having banned the ministry and its main policy of reducing emissions, Biden declared it an “existential threat to the planet” and his dispatch says that there is only “a narrow moment seek actions at home and abroad “to avoid” the most catastrophic impacts “and to seize opportunities to create jobs.
Its instructions include pausing and reviewing oil and gas drilling on federal lands, doubling the energy of offshore wind farms by 2030, moving federal government fossil fuel agencies to clean cars, setting a goal to conserve at least 30% of land and oceans by 2030, and request a national intelligence estimate of the economic and security implications of climate change.
The White House will present a domestic climate policy office to coordinate Biden’s agenda, a national climate task force composed of 21 government agency leaders and an inter-agency environmental justice council to address racial and economic inequalities aggravated by climate change and air and water pollution. He hopes to approve a $ 2 trillion clean energy package, with 40% of the investments going to underserved communities.
Bill Hare, chief executive of Berlin-based Climate Analytics and an adviser to developing countries on climate change for decades, says the scope of Biden’s actions so far has been surprising.
“It’s more than people thought they would do,” he says. “It is comprehensive and coherent. Breathtaking is really the word. “
Martijn Wilder, a former president of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and a founding partner of the climate consulting firm Pollination, says he believes Biden’s plan is “the most comprehensive plan of any government on climate change”, and people are not yet they had fully understood its importance, especially in terms of national security and foreign policy.
How Biden intends to exercise his influence internationally will become clearer in preparation for the climate summit of the major economies he plans to host on Earth Day, April 22. He defined the summit as a deadline to announce a new 2030 emission reduction target to put the United States on the path of net zero by 2050. He has already promised a carbon-free energy supply by 2035.
In contrast, Scott Morrison said he would not increase what is widely seen as an unambitious emissions target for 2030 (a cut of 26-28% below 2005 levels) this year. The government withdrew from the global climate fund and continues to resist a mid-century goal of zero net emissions, despite being supported by more than 120 countries collectively responsible for about three quarters of global GDP.
There is a growing expectation that Morrison may yield to that point before a year-long UN climate summit in Glasgow. But scientists and parts of the international community say that a net zero target for 2050 would mean little, unless supported by a detailed plan to get there, including deeper emissions cuts this decade. A group of policymakers and scientists released an analysis this week warning that Australia should seek net zero emissions well before 2050 if it were to adopt a science-based approach.
Reports suggest that the government believes it will not be under pressure from the US to do more about the climate after an initial phone call between Kerry and the emission reduction minister, Angus Taylor, who allegedly included the discussion about establishing a working group for the development of low emission technology.
Analysts often dismiss this as bravado or illusion, but it is unclear how strong and direct any pressure would be.
John Morton, a former senior director for energy and climate change at Barack Obama’s national security council and now a pollination partner in Washington DC, says Biden left no doubt in his first 10 days that he plans to do exactly what he promised. climate. His rhetoric before taking office included using “all the tools of American foreign policy to pressure the rest of the world” to do more.
“Climate is one of your government’s top priorities. I think it would be foolhardy to hope that the Biden government would not pursue him in his interactions with Australia. This will happen with all countries, but particularly with countries with significant resources and significant extractive and fossil fuel industries, ”says Morton.
“Australia obviously falls into these two categories. I think Australia should expect this to play a central role in the way the United States deals and hopes to interact collaboratively with them. “
Hare says the United States is unlikely to accept a late commitment to a net zero target for 2050 as a substantial change in Australia’s stance. “They will want to see an improvement in the 2030 target,” he says.
The international push for Australia to do more is not just coming from the USA. Morrison was embarrassed when he was rejected to speak at a leadership ambition summit in December due to Australia’s lack of ambition, and is likely to be under similar pressure before a G7 meeting in Cornwall in June.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson invited the leaders of Australia, India and South Korea to attend all summit sessions in what is seen as an attempt to turn the forum into a D10 meeting of major democracies.
Diplomatic sources say Britain has made it clear that climate and energy will be a top priority at the summit, and plans to push for commitments to both zero net emissions by 2050 as well as deeper cuts and financial commitments to help developing countries by 2030 With all the members of the G7 having already adopted a carbon neutral target, the expectation is that the three guests will be pressured to put their names in an ambitious statement.
Morrison seemed to respond preemptively to that impulse in an interview with the Australian last week, in which he argued that the political debate over whether to act on climate change was over, and now it was just a question of how – and, by implication , when – emissions have been reduced. He said he would tell the G7 and the G20 that his priority was to act by developing technology, not committing to new emissions targets.
This puts him in direct conflict with Kerry, who emphasized this week that all countries must increase their ambition before meeting in Glasgow in November “or we will all fail”.
Howard Bamsey, a former Australian special envoy for climate change and executive director of the green climate fund, now an honorary professor at Australian National University, says that an underlying message from the US beyond details is the extent to which its plans were considered and mapped before take office.
In a sense, this is not surprising. Many of the people in senior positions are former employees of the Obama administration, and Biden signaled his plans on climate change in advance in a way that no other new president has done.
Bamsey says people should be sure that their government is clear in what it is doing and that Kerry emphasized that he is being realistic about what can be achieved.
It also means that you are more likely to move on.
“This is not an overnight effort. This is a very serious change in government operations and now that they have placed it in a national security environment, it will have a very profound effect worldwide, ”said Bamsey. “It is very difficult to see the Australian government continue to resist.”