Boris Johnson’s Post-Brexit Plan for Britain remains a puzzle

Brexit was heralded by some of its longtime supporters as a way to unleash a new dynamism in Britain, getting rid of the Brussels bureaucracy to create a “Singapore on the Thames” with low and free taxes – a phrase coined by a former British Treasury chief, Philip Hammond – selling his products and services worldwide.

But Johnson is not a free-market conservative along the lines of Margaret Thatcher. So far, he has promised the British more regulation, not less, with ambitious plans to raise the minimum wage and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He promised more state spending, not less, in order to “level off” an economy he says is very dependent on London and southern England.

These policies have allowed him to win big in last year’s election in districts traditionally hostile to the conservatives in power, while his dogged pursuit of Brexit has alienated many of his party’s traditional allies on corporate boards of directors. All of these tensions present a puzzle: if Johnson doesn’t want another Thatcher-style economic revolution, what does he want to do with Britain’s freedom from Brussels?

Your first task is to deal with what can be another difficult year. The interruption of new trade agreements with the UK’s largest export market could prevent the economic recovery from the pandemic.

A 2019 electoral pledge to revive regions left behind seems more complicated now that the virus has opened a hole in the UK’s public finances.

The pandemic itself is not over: the country is entering the new year with a new variant of the coronavirus on the loose and growing infections that will bring an inevitable number of deaths in the future. Even with a vaccination program in place, it will take months before Covid-19 is under sufficient control to lift economic restrictions, the resistance of which will likely continue on the part of restless sectors of its own party. Meanwhile, Scottish nationalists are looking forward to another chance at independence.

However, although Brexit is over, Johnson’s long-term vision for the UK is unclear, say political observers. “He had the opportunity to articulate some kind of grand plan, but I don’t think he has one and I don’t think he feels he needs one,” said Simon Usherwood, professor of politics at the University of Surrey.

The EU’s fear that Johnson will seek to create an economy with low taxes and low regulation has guided the bloc’s harsh approach to Brexit negotiations. The concern was that the UK would become a low-cost competitor on the EU’s doorstep, capable of undermining European companies because its standards were lower. The EU’s response was to build a trade agreement that if the UK lowered its standards – say, changing the law to allow factories to pollute more – it would lose tariff-free access to the bloc.

Mr. Johnson sought in the negotiations to maximize the UK’s freedom from bloc regulation. But in important policy areas, their plans reflect or augment those of the EU, rather than undermining them.

His major electoral victory in 2019 was in a manifesto that included promises to raise the minimum wage and curb corporate tax evasion. In policy announcements covering the environment and climate change, the United Kingdom has set ambitious targets that go beyond the commitments set by the EU. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has said it will not ease capital requirements and other bank regulations.

Johnson, who was the main public face of the Brexit movement, praised Britain’s departure from the EU as a claim to sovereignty. In speeches, he touted traditional conservative priorities, such as low taxes and deregulation, stricter policing and stricter immigration rules.

But he also spoke in favor of traditionally left-wing goals, such as lavish investment in infrastructure and state support for industry, including greater protection against foreign acquisitions, marking a break with the free market orthodoxy that conservative rulers have advocated since Mrs. Prime Minister Thatcher. He defends strict environmental rules and has banned the export of live animals for slaughter.

It is not clear which line of political thought will dominate the rest of his term.

“Our plan to rebuild this country will not go astray,” Johnson said at the Conservative Party conference this year, promising more investment in health, policing and education. But in the same speech he warned that the state could not act like “Uncle Sugar” forever.

The mixed political messages mean that his view of how post-Brexit Britain will diverge from the EU is nebulous. The departure in November of Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s chief adviser and one of the creators behind the Brexit referendum, adds to this uncertainty.

From Johnson’s entourage, Cummings presented the most detailed vision for post-Brexit Britain. He wrote extensively about how Britain, without the restrictions of EU regulation, would be able to more quickly manage issues such as climate change, immigration changes, urbanization and harnessing major technologies.

The vision envisaged a new state that could intervene quickly to adjust regulations and thus stimulate investment and innovation. He argued that Britain would maintain economic competitiveness by becoming a leading center for scientific research and cutting-edge industries such as artificial intelligence and green technology.

By becoming the first country in the West to approve Pfizer Inc.

and BioNTech SEin

vaccine against Covid-19, the UK has made a remarkable demonstration of the kind of regulatory agility that Johnson and Cummings envision.

Leaving Brexit aside, Johnson’s electoral promise was to revitalize the UK’s former industrial regions that were left behind with large taxpayer-funded investments in schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Johnson’s Treasury chief Rishi Sunak defended “freeports”, low-tax production zones that skeptics say encourage tax evasion, as places for multinational companies to open factories and create new jobs.

Internationally, the vision for post-Brexit Britain is better defined. Johnson spoke of Britain becoming a global advocate for free trade, human rights and the fight against climate change, highlighting London’s aspirations to act as a global fixer, overcoming its weight in forums like the Group of Seven and the United Nations. Military spending has already increased and, say the authorities, for example, it will use its financial influence to develop sanctions to punish human rights abuses.

A central objective of Brexit was to give the UK the ability to sign independent EU trade agreements. Officials argue that the UK outside the EU can negotiate agreements with countries more suited to the British service-oriented economy.

So far, the UK’s new agreements with countries like Japan and Mexico have largely replicated those already in force with the EU. An important target is the USA

Johnson’s office was relieved when the prime minister was one of the first European leaders to receive a call from President-elect Joe Biden, after spending years courting Donald Trump. But the president-elect signaled that he is in no hurry to offer anyone a trade deal, given urgent domestic priorities.

Write to Jason Douglas at [email protected] and Max Colchester at [email protected]