WASHINGTON – How low can US emissions go? Under President Joe Biden, the number to look at may be 50 percent.
As he prepares for a global climate summit next month, a vigorous campaign of influence is underway on the president’s future commitment to the Paris Agreement, with all eyes on whether he will commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. greenhouse effect by about 50 percent by the end of the decade.
To keep global temperatures under control, the United Nations says the world must cut emissions almost in half by 2030, compared to a decade ago. This year, while Biden returns the US to the Paris agreement, a number of environmental groups, elected officials and scientists are supporting a US goal of no less than 50 percent, a goal the country is far from achieving.
Behind the scenes, some Democrats and European officials are pushing for an increasingly aggressive promise. Still, the government is being resisted by business groups that say 50% is unrealistic, especially before Biden can explain how he will get there, according to interviews with nearly a dozen industry officials, lobbyists and congressional advisers.
And many Republican lawmakers want him to ignore the promise entirely, arguing that it will give Beijing a huge economic advantage by committing to painful cuts while China allows its emissions to continue to rise.
Senator John Barrasso, R-Wyo., The top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, warned that Biden “would set targets for punishment for the United States, while our opponents maintained the status quo.”
This reasoning is totally rejected by scientists and climate activists.
“This is not a time to hide behind the inaction of other countries,” said Rachel Cleetus, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, one of many groups that call for a cut of at least 50 percent.
In his early days in office, Biden pledged the United States to zero emissions of heat-trapping gases by 2050. But that is a remote goal that the United States will meet or lose long after he leaves office. The most urgent question is how drastically the US will cut emissions in the short term.
According to the Paris Agreement, all countries were to declare updated pledges, known as “nationally determined contributions”, for 2030. As of February, 75 parts of the agreement had done so.
The White House declined to comment on Biden’s decision. But government officials said an announcement is expected during or before the global summit of presidents and prime ministers to address the climate change that Biden announced shortly after taking office and which will host on April 22, which coincides with Earth Day. .
Biden and his special climate envoy, John Kerry, hope to use this virtual summit to increase pressure on other polluters to announce their own ambitious promises. Not everyone is invited. Kerry said the 17 countries that emit the most will do so, along with vulnerable nations with dramatic impacts on climate change, such as Bangladesh and Palau.
Biden’s decision comes at a time when new data shows that promises so far “are nowhere near the level of ambition needed” to achieve global goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres. The combined pledges would produce a cut of less than 1 percent by 2030, the UN said. Other recent data show that emissions are again rising after a temporary drop in the pandemic.
Even at 50%, the United States would be far from setting the pace. The European Union has promised at least a 55% cut compared to 1990 levels, while the United Kingdom has promised 68%.
Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific group, said this month that the United States needs to cut 57% to 63% by 2030 to meet Biden’s goal of zero net emissions by the middle of the century.
In the United States, a pledge of 50 percent or more has been adopted by the Environmental Defense Fund, the National Resources Defense Council and the World Resources Institute, along with the “America Is All In” coalition led by UN Special Envoy Mike Bloomberg and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee.
Another imminent question: whether Biden can prove his number with specifications on how he will force the necessary cuts in the sectors of greatest emission: transport, electricity and heavy industry.
White House climate secretary Gina McCarthy is making plans, but what is achievable depends a lot on what Biden will achieve in Congress, perhaps through infrastructure legislation, an issue that is unlikely to be resolved before the summit.
“There are so many things that need to be implemented, from technology to policies and market mechanisms,” said Marty Durbin, senior vice president for policies at the United States Chamber of Commerce. “To be durable, we will need legislation passed by Congress.”
The American Petroleum Institute, the powerful oil and gas trade association that recently tried to rename the industry as a positive player in climate change, endorsed “the Paris Agreement’s ambitions” but declined to say how much the United States should cut in 2030.
“The path needs to be one that balances energy security and environmental goals in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, continuing to promote economic growth and maintaining the competitiveness of the United States,” said Aaron Padilla, who manages the climate policy of the United States. API. . “This is a very delicate balance.”