The $ 1.9 trillion “bailout” package that Biden launched last week – a big gamble to revive a coronavirus-ravaged economy – is getting the cold shoulder of Republicans. And some Democrats, eager to act quickly, are beginning to question whether it is worth trying to win their support.
For Biden, who as a candidate called himself the Democrat best positioned to break the Capitol impasse, the story of his presidency could very well be written in the coming weeks, as the work of drafting the project and disputing votes begins to worth. But even in the face of Republican opposition and Democratic anxiety, Biden is betting on himself and a team of experienced negotiators to deliver not just a massive aid package, but also a victory that would justify one of the central premises of his political life – which there is always room and reason to negotiate with partisan enemies.
Biden’s stance is less clear. He supported retaining the obstruction in the past, but avoided comments last summer, saying that his stance could change depending on “how turbulent (Republicans) become”. Asked on Friday about Biden’s current position, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said only that his “position has not changed”.
Moving to budget reconciliation or getting rid of the obstruction would undermine Biden’s claim to be a master negotiator. But it may be the only way, the Democrats argue, to provide relief to Americans desperate for it.
“Biden has to give McConnell some chance to see if he will play, but I think there is a time limit for that. I don’t think Biden has the luxury of waiting forever. I think three months, four months at most” , said former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who worked closely with Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, and Biden during his time in the Senate. “There will come a time when the obstruction will have to go. It is not a question of whether, it is a question of when it will go.”
Reid acknowledged that getting rid of the obstruction – or any move to get around Republicans – would undermine Biden’s political brand. But the Nevada Democrat argued that his former colleague will likely have to choose between being an icon of bipartisanship and a president with a long list of accomplishments.
“You cannot do both … Your legacy will be judged on what it does. If (the Republicans) are going to stop you from doing anything, your legacy will not be good,” said Reid, before he put a further point fine about it: “Joe Biden will be recognized for what he accomplished. And he will not be recognized for ‘I got along with everyone. We didn’t do everything, but I sure was good for everyone.’ “
During his first briefing on Wednesday night, Psaki said Biden “will be very involved” in the negotiation process and pointed to his 36 years in the Senate as proof that his involvement can pay off. But she also suggested that Biden would not hesitate to cut the bait when the time came.
“His clear preference is to go ahead with a bipartisan bill. There is no doubt about it,” said Psaki. “But we’re also not going to take any tools off the table for how the House and Senate can make this package urgent.”
One of Biden’s top advisers, the director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese, confirmed on Friday afternoon that he will speak to a bipartisan group of senators on Sunday.
“In terms of the message, it’s very clear,” Deese told reporters. “We are at a precarious time for the virus and for the economy. Without decisive action, we run the risk of falling into a very serious economic hole, even more serious than the crisis we are in ”.
Even so, some Democrats are already starting to ask Biden not to stick to the hope of winning an obstruction-proof bipartisan majority. Its ranks include veterans of the Obama administration’s long and fruitless journey to win Republican support for the Affordable Care Act for more than a decade.
Kathleen Sebelius, a former Kansas governor who was Obama’s first Secretary of Health and Human Services, said she learned the hard way to wait long for Republican support – something that former Sen. Max Baucus, the Democrat from Montana who he was president of finance for the Senate during the process, promised but failed to deliver – he could do real political damage.
“There’s not much time to lose,” said Sebelius of Biden’s relief effort. “He is wise to present this soon, to say, ‘I want bipartisan support’, and then do everything I can to get what I can get through as quickly as possible, because people are really suffering.”
Obamacare’s long approval process allowed Republicans to organize the opposition and position them to use the law – which was still largely an abstraction after its approval in early 2010 – as a club during that year’s midterm elections, when Democrats were “mistreated”, as Obama then said. A similar delay, Sebelius added, threatened to undermine Democratic efforts to maintain, or potentially expand, its majorities in Congress in the 2022 election.
“People need to feel the impact of what happens quickly. They need to know that their lives are better, ”said Sebelius. “Things that are very tangible need to happen visibly and quickly.”
Senate Democrats are eyeing their Republican counterparts and, according to a senior adviser to a caucus member, remain “extremely optimistic” about the White House proposal and the messages surrounding it.
“There is no heartburn regarding Biden’s early game to make him bipartisan, to reach the other side of the aisle,” said the aide, adding that there is also “no illusion” among Democrats about the prospect of Republicans coming to board – a reality this was hammered by recent comments by Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins, questioning the need for more spending.
The plan, the aide said, was simple: “We proclaim (the bill), celebrate, say we want to cross the corridor – and at the same time, we need to move silently to pursue part of that political agenda through reconciliation.”
Some Democrats, especially in the progressive ranks of the party, have already questioned the strategy or are signaling their desire for a quick pivot for action – with or without the support of the Republican Party.
“I believe President-elect Biden has a very optimistic view of the Republican Party. He has made previous statements (saying) that once Trump is gone, they will see the error of their ways,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York told reporters after a virtual city hall last week. “I applaud your optimism, but I disagree with your assessment.”
“The danger we face would not be going too big or spending too much, but going too small and leaving the needs of the American people behind,” wrote Independont of Vermont. “If Republicans want to work with us, we should welcome them. But their support is not necessary.”
The tension between the more aggressive approach advocated by Sanders and his progressive companions, like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, was one of the central conflicts in the race for the Democratic primaries of 2020. Biden eventually emerged, in part, because a wider range of Democratic voters embraced his compromise proposal.
Biden also benefited, in some sectors, from the view that almost everything he supported, because of his long history of taking moderate positions in the Senate and as vice president, was definitely the moderate approach – even when he bet on the ground for the left of where the Obama administration landed.
That mark is likely to help the newly installed president as he tries to convince the public that pursuing his biggest campaign promise – uniting a severely divided country – and passing a huge Covid relief bill are not in conflict.