Biden’s affront to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a ‘warning’

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – President Joe Biden’s press secretary delivered an impressive message to Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this week. Jen Psaki said at a news conference, using diplomatic language, that the United States-Saudi Arabia relationship – especially with the kingdom’s crown prince – is being downgraded.

“On Saudi Arabia, I would say that we have made it clear from the beginning that we are going to recalibrate our relationship with Saudi Arabia,” said Psaki on Tuesday at the White House.

On the question of whether Biden would speak to the Crown Prince, she replied: “Part of this is going back to the same engagement. The President’s counterpart is King Salman, and I hope that at an appropriate time, he would have a conversation with him. . I don’t have a schedule for that. “

The quotes drew instant attention from regional analysts and foreign policy experts, and likely Gulf leaders as well, as a blatant affront to the heir to the 35-year-old monarchy in Saudi Arabia and arguably the most powerful man in the region.

“Well, I think what Jen said, in fact, I know what she said is that the president would get involved with his counterpart, and this is the king,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price, a reporters on Wednesday.

Price added that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be similarly involved with his counterpart, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

“President Biden said that we will review this entire relationship to ensure that it advances interests and is respectable and respects the values ​​that we bring to this partnership,” said Price.

“Of course, we know that Saudi Arabia is an important partner on many different fronts of regional security counterterrorism are just two of them,” he added.

“The affront to MBS represents a warning to Saudi Arabia,” wrote Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief MENA analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, in an email on Wednesday, referring to the Crown Prince by his initials. “This will be seen as a disapproval of the MBS leadership, which was characterized by unpredictable decision-making and a much less consultative approach than in the past.”

And the government’s apparent intention to marginalize the Crown Prince represents a dramatic departure from the Trump White House, which made Saudi Arabia the former president’s first visit abroad, signed important arms deals with the kingdom in defiance of Congressional opposition. and refrained from criticizing the kingdom about its human rights violations.

This should come as no surprise, as Biden promised from the outset a tougher line against the oil-rich Islamic monarchy. During a primary debate in early 2020, Biden promised to make Saudi Arabia “the outcast it is”.

“This move is not surprising, but it is bold and it will hurt,” Michael Stephens, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC. “There is no doubt that Psaki’s comments were directed at the Crown Prince, although he is, for all intents and purposes, the man in charge of the kingdom.”

A series of scandals and crises from the kingdom since the Crown Prince came to power has drawn condemnation not only from Democrats but also from Republicans.

According to a former Obama administration official, speaking anonymously due to professional restrictions, “the Saudis in Washington are in the worst position they have ever been in. They have just been covered up by the Trump White House.”

The Saudi government did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Biden has already paused a major arms sale to the kingdom and other Gulf allies signed under the Trump administration, and has ordered an end to US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, which created what the UN calls worst human-made humanitarian crisis in the world.

And the kingdom was condemned internationally for the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 by state agents. United States intelligence linked death to the Crown Prince, something Riyadh strongly denies.

“With the war going on in Yemen, the crackdown on prominent members of the country’s political and business elite in 2017, the death of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and the oil price war last year, there is no shortage of crude issues for the Biden government. take offense at, “wrote Soltvedt.

But how realistic is the Biden team’s goal of circumventing the Crown Prince – who is also defense minister, next in line to the throne and has made most of the kingdom’s major decisions?

According to Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the kingdom’s royal court, this is far from realistic.

“They can’t do anything if they don’t deal with MBS,” Shihabi told Politico. “The king is working, but he is very old. He is the chairman of the council. He is not involved in day-to-day matters. Eventually, they will want to speak directly to MBS.”

King Salman, the reigning monarch since 2015, is now 85 years old.

Verisk’s Soltvedt agrees. “King Salman is the head of state and, ultimately, holds the levers of power. But it is the MBS that exercises direct control over the most important portfolios and institutions in the kingdom, ”he wrote. “A change in Washington’s approach to its negotiations with the Saudi leadership will not change that.”

Although the Biden government is expected to place a lower priority on the Gulf States than its predecessor, they still remain America’s main arms customers and regional counterterrorism partners, as well as oil suppliers – albeit less and less each year to the last .

So while Biden’s team is signaling a change, it will not be a breakdown in relations, many foreign policy experts believe.

“I think the most important thing to realize is that, over the years, US policy towards Saudi Arabia has been relatively consistent, regardless of which party is in power,” said Tarek Fadlallah, Nomura’s Middle East CEO .

“There will be a slightly different tone between this White House and the last White House,” said Fadlallah. “But I don’t think it will have consequences in terms of politics for the region or politics for Saudi Arabia.”

– CNBC’s Amanda Macias contributed to this Washington report.