US President Joe Biden wants to end the war in Yemen, but the conflict is unlikely to be postponed anytime soon, according to Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
“In fact, I think it is likely to make the conflict worse,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.
Biden announced last month that the United States would withdraw its support for the offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen.
Previous administrations of Donald Trump and Barack Obama supported the Saudi-led alliance in their intervention in the civil war in Yemen.
The Yemeni civil war began in 2014, when Houthi rebels took control of the capital Sanaa from the internationally recognized government of Yemen.
A year later, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Sunni Arab states in support of the Yemeni government to overthrow the Houthis, a Shiite-majority Iranian-backed militia.
We will simply expect an Iranian-backed militia to come to the table and act reasonably. Unfortunately, I think this is an illusion.
Jonathan Schanzer
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
According to the United Nations, the war has already caused some 233,000 deaths – including more than 100,000 deaths from indirect causes, such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure.
Schanzer said Biden’s move will not help end the war in Yemen because the United States has no concessions to offer to the Houthis, who now have less incentive than before to make concessions.
“What the Biden government did was to remove the military option from the table for the United States, even by proxy through the Saudis,” he said.
Diplomacy the only option
The United States also prevented the Houthis from being designated as a foreign terrorist organization and removed them from the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists.
“What remains now is diplomacy,” said Schanzer.
“The reality we are facing now is that we have really taken all of our other levers off the table, and we are just going to wait for an Iran-backed militia to come to the table and act reasonably,” he said. . “Unfortunately, I think this is an illusion.”
He noted that the Houthis intensified their attacks, although the US special envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, implored them to negotiate.
Smoke rises above the residential area after air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition targeting military positions held by Houthi on March 7, 2021 in Sana’a, Yemen.
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Schanzer said Saudi Arabia’s continued military operations may be “one of the few pieces of influence” that the United States could use in discussions with Houthis.
Even so, he acknowledged that there is an aversion to getting involved in the conflict. “It seems … that the Biden government itself has tied itself up a little,” he said.
Progress is unlikely to end the Yemen war for the time being, he said, pointing to Houthis aggression.
“With the swarm drone attacks and the ballistic missile attacks and other acts of violence that they practiced in the Saudi state, it is very, very difficult to imagine that the Saudis will want to lessen their reprisals,” he said.
– Amanda Macias from CNBC contributed to this report.