Biden says U.S. will have enough Covid-19 vaccines for adults by May

Suddenly, news about the Covid-19 vaccine in the United States looks immensely positive. It is so positive, in fact, that the words that the Americans were hoping to hear now seem to be true: You will almost certainly get a vaccine soon.

President Joe Biden shared the good news on Tuesday. As he told reporters, “We are now on track to have a sufficient vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May” – two months ahead of the July schedule he gave earlier.

It’s not just Biden. Last month, Anthony Fauci, the leading federal infectious disease specialist, said he hoped it would be a “hunting season” for vaccines in late May or early June. In the past few weeks, the experts I spoke with also seemed increasingly positive about the prospects for all adults in the United States to receive an injection in the coming months.

National vaccination numbers reflect that: The US now has an average of 1.9 million injections administered per day on March 2, compared to less than 1 million in mid-January. Even if that number does not improve – which seems unlikely – the current index puts the country on track to achieve collective immunity, when enough people are immunized to prevent the virus from spreading, by the end of the summer.

None of this is guaranteed. There are still big questions about how all this will play out, from questions about when exactly states will facilitate their vaccination criteria to whether manufacturing and distribution will actually be able to keep up. Different states, counties and even cities are likely to have different experiences.

So, unfortunately, it is unclear when, exactly, anyone in particular will finally have a chance. We just don’t know yet.

The good news is also not a sign that we should collectively relax by following the basic precautions against Covid-19, including masking and physical detachment, yet. Vaccines are likely to allow us to get our lives back to normal – and if you have been vaccinated and want to meet in particular with other people who have been vaccinated, it’s probably okay.

But as a society, and particularly in public settings, it is important to wait until the vast majority of people are vaccinated to really relax: with thousands of people still dying every day from Covid-19, the precautions we all hear about they ended last year remains crucial to saving lives – potentially tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of them. (It is therefore worrying that some states, such as Texas and Mississippi, are now moving to reopen and end restrictions, including masking mandates.)

Still, this should not obscure the fact that the news about the vaccine is very good. The finish line is finally visible with this pandemic. Now it is up to us and our leaders to ensure that as many people as possible get there.

The launch of the vaccine has improved dramatically

At the beginning of the vaccine launch in America, the news was not good.

In much of the country, there have been reports of equipment breakdown, inadequate personnel and unused doses of vaccine. After boosting vaccine research and development, former President Donald Trump’s administration seemed to do little or nothing to ensure that the vaccines were actually distributed – instead, to distribute the doses to the states and let them find out the rest. . When Biden first said that he wanted to administer 1 million vaccines a day, that goal seemed ambitious in the context of complicated implementation.

Then things started to get better quickly. States and cities began to improve the distribution of vaccines – correcting logistical obstacles, in some cases simplifying state criteria to maximize speed and, as a result, transforming more of the vaccine supply they received into vaccines. The federal government offered more support: the billions in funding approved by Congress in December began to be implemented, and the new Biden government offered more proactive guidance while steadily increasing the supply of vaccines delivered to states.

Today, the United States has surpassed Biden’s original goal of 1 million vaccines a day. The country is now averaging more than 1.9 million injections administered per day (after a temporary slowdown at the end of last month due to the winter weather), and it seems likely to reach an average of 2 million per day in this week. Based on what pharmaceutical companies have promised, the US is likely to achieve a supply capacity of at least 3 million vaccines per day this month.

While there are still crucial, unresolved questions about whether and how the federal, state and local governments will actually turn that supply into weapons, the last few weeks of better distribution offer some confidence that it is possible, even likely, that they will succeed.

Our world in data

To put these numbers into context: at the rate of 2 million injections per day, the United States will achieve what scientists hope to be collective immunity – about 80% of the vaccinated country – by the end of the summer. With 3 million a day, the country could achieve collective immunity in mid-summer, giving us the second half of summer to hopefully enjoy a life much closer to the normal pre-pandemic.

Many important questions remain: Will vaccine manufacturers really deliver on their promises? Will the federal government dispatch the vaccine supply quickly and support states and localities in administering these doses? Will states, counties and cities be able to cope with the rapid increase in distribution? Will the new Covid-19 variants affect vaccine efficacy? (So ​​far, early research suggests that vaccines are still effective against variants, but it is worth keeping an eye on.)

And, perhaps most importantly, do enough Americans want to be vaccinated? Surveys show that about 30% of Americans are hesitant. If this continues, it will probably be enough to eliminate the chance of real herd immunity, especially since every adult will have to be vaccinated to reach the required limit, as long as a vaccine is not yet available for children.

On a more individual level, there is a lot of uncertainty about when, exactly, someone will be able to make an attempt. States have relaxed their criteria for who can be vaccinated at different rates. Some are still working on what the next distribution phase will look like, let alone the later phase. Therefore, if anyone who is not in one of the current priority groups will receive a chance in March, April or May – or even later – it will likely vary from state to state.

But we can say, with at least some certainty, that the country is on its way to making a vaccine available to all adults this summer or earlier.

Now is not the time to lower Covid-19’s precautions

Along with the good news about vaccines, we have also received some positive news in other areas of Covid-19 in recent weeks: The number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths has dropped dramatically from its historic peaks after the holidays. The United States is still unclear – in a worrying sign, the drop in cases began to stabilize last week – but it is certainly in much better shape than it was a few weeks ago.

Now, some state officials, including in Texas and Mississippi, have responded by lifting Covid-19 restrictions, including limits on reopened companies and mask mandates.

But experts say it is still too early. In response to Texas’s announcement that it was ending the term of the mask and other restrictions, Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine told the Houston Chronicle: “I would recommend postponing. We will wait two more weeks. “

In many ways, this is a repeat of the same mistake that the United States made during the Covid-19 pandemic: when things get better, the country breaks free very quickly – before the spread is stopped at a really manageable level. So there are still enough viruses out there, as people start to get together again, to jump from person to person. This fueled one wave of Covid-19 after another in the spring, summer and fall – making the United States’ epidemic one of the deadliest per capita among wealthy nations – and it seems to be happening again.

It is particularly bleak now, because the finish line for this pandemic is finally in sight. This is something that experts have emphasized for some time: if we know that the end is in just a few months, we must make every effort to contain Covid-19 infections by then – to ensure that the greatest number of people reach the end possible line. But to do this, the public and its leaders must remain vigilant. The United States simply hasn’t done that since the beginning of the pandemic.

This is not to say that being vaccinated will not open up new possibilities for you. Based on current evidence, vaccines are very effective in protecting vaccinees and appear to reduce at least some risk of infection and transmission. The evidence is strong enough for experts to say that it is probably okay to go out with other people who have been vaccinated and, yes, to give them a hug.

But, beyond the individual level, society still needs to maintain some restrictions to protect people who have not yet had the vaccine. This means continuous physical detachment and masking in public environments.

To simplify: we are almost at the point where this type of restriction has passed. But not yet.

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